The Biden-Trump rematch is shaping up to be another nail-biter

Barring any surprises, the 2024 presidential election will almost certainly be between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the first presidential rematch in nearly three-quarters of a century.  

And while polling 10 months out from the election typically shows that many voters have not made up their minds or are unfamiliar with the candidates, that is hardly the case with Biden and Trump, two well-known figures who have long been their respective party’s frontrunners, thus early polling is more revealing than usual. 

On the surface, national polling points to an incredibly close race, as Trump holds just a 2 point lead according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, well within the margin of error. Using the same averages, in January 2023, Biden led Trump by 2 points, and neither candidate has led by more than 4 points going back to November 2022.  

For reference, at this point in 2020, Biden held a 6 point lead which never dipped below 4 points for the rest of the year but surpassed 10 points multiple times in the leadup to that November’s election. As such, I do believe Trump has a slight non-incumbent advantage — much as Biden enjoyed in 2020 — with both elections taking place in the shadow of geopolitical turmoil and domestic discontent.  

Put another way, over the last 14 months, there has been little topline movement in national polling between Biden and Trump, and as of this writing, the race appears significantly closer than in 2020, where just 43,000 votes across three states were the difference between Biden’s victory and a tie, which would have given Trump a second term. 

However, beneath the surface — in swing states, key voter blocs and on the issues — there have been noticeable shifts that have considerable implications for the 2024 election. 

In seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump leads Biden, including more than 4 point leads in five of the seven, per Morning Consult tracking polls.  

Moreover, in four of those states — Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Biden either led or was virtually tied with Trump in October or November, only to see Trump surge ahead. 

What should concern Democrats is that Biden’s swing state troubles are not isolated to this one poll. In November, New York Times/Siena polling showed Trump with a lead in five of six swing states (they did not include North Carolina). In 2020, Biden won all six swing states surveyed in the New York Times/Siena poll, representing a substantial shift. 

To that end, and even more concerning for Democrats, is that these polls also reveal an erosion of support for the president among critical Democratic voting blocs: young, Black, and Hispanic voters. 

Indeed, in the seven swing states surveyed by Morning Consult, voters 18-34 years old favor Trump by 5 points (45 percent to 40 percent), a net 4 point increase in Trump’s lead with this age group since October.  

In that same vein, Black and Hispanic swing state voters are increasingly open to supporting Trump over Biden. Across all seven swing states, Biden had just a 4 point (45 percent to 41 percent) among Hispanics, while 24 percent of Black voters said they would support Trump. 

The New York Times poll, which does not include North Carolina, but includes the other six states, shows roughly identical numbers, pointing to their stickiness. In that poll, Biden had just an 8 point lead (50 percent to 42 percent) among Hispanics, while a similar 22 percent of Black voters preferred Trump.  

Notably, issues polling underscores that the attrition in Biden’s support among key Democratic constituencies is likely due to widespread disapproval over the president’s handling of the top issues on voters’ minds: the economy, inflation and foreign policy, including Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.  

The economy and inflation have long been thorns in Biden’s side, and Republicans are certain to make them focal points of the 2024 campaign, given its importance to voters. One-third of registered voters say inflation is the top issue facing the country, while more than one-fifth (23 percent) say the economy generally, per Harvard/HarrisX polling.  

As just 42 percent of registered voters approve of Biden’s handling of the economy and 39 percent approve of his approach to inflation, the president faces an uphill challenge in convincing voters to give him another four years at the helm.  

Trump is also likely to criticize Biden’s foreign policy as a centerpiece of the 2024 campaign. With Biden having just a 35 percent approval on foreign policy per RealClearPolitics average, Trump will surely contrast his “tough” approach to foreign policy with the perception that the country has jumped from one international crisis to another under Biden.   

With all of this in mind, it would be a gross overreaction to look at the polls and assume Trump will handily defeat Biden.  

Trump may have a narrow lead nationally, and Biden may be losing ground among the Democratic base, but it remains to be seen whether sizable numbers of young, Black, and Hispanic voters will actually abandon Biden and whether moderate, suburban voters, particularly women, will vote for Trump given his rhetoric and the issue of abortion.  

To that point, despite Trump’s strong numbers, he is deeply unpopular, with just 40 percent of Americans having a favorable view of the former president, per Yahoo News polling, identical to Biden.  

Trump’s legacy is a vulnerability as well. Nearly one-half (45 percent) of Americans say Trump will go down in history as a “below average” (11 percent) or “poor” (34 percent) president and less than half (46 percent) of Americans believe Trump should be eligible to run for office at all, according to Economist/YouGov polling.  

Ultimately, the 2024 election will likely be heavily lacking in policy debates, and instead feature historic levels of personal attacks launched by both candidates, with Trump running against Biden the man, not Biden’s policies, and vice-versa for the incumbent.  

And despite Trump’s slim lead at this point, the unpopularity of both candidates, coupled with their abilities to mobilize their respective bases against the other means that 2024 will likely be incredibly similar to 2020: A close election coming down to just a handful of states, with the winner being who can best mobilize their base in opposition to the other candidate, rather than the big tent campaigns of the past. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an advisor to President Clinton and the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”