First, best wishes to all at the dawn of the new year. But how long that lasts remains to be seen.
At the beginning of 2024, dystopia seems a more apt forecast of the future than utopia. Perhaps a better description should be “no-topia” — that is a bit of each with the hope that “u” overcomes “dys.”
Without recycling the depressing news that appears to envelope much of the world, gloom is surely on the ascent. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza are going badly for Ukraine and Israel. The Ukrainian Army apparently is running short on bullets and soldiers. As Israel continues to let a humanitarian catastrophe unfold in Gaza, its future as a liberal democracy is in grave jeopardy.
The Gaza War could spread to Lebanon as Hezbollah is becoming more aggressive. Whether Operation Prosperity Guardian will merely defend against Houthi missiles or take the offensive is far from clear. And Iran gives every indication of exploiting these conditions through calculated provocations using the Houthis and Hezbollah as proxies.
The U.S. political scene is about to become solely focused on November with the prospect of the next president being the favorite a majority of Americans about nil. Lawsuits and countersuits have shifted governing to the courts as both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue are in gridlock, unable to govern.
The beneficiaries are Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping who see America in decline.
President Joe Biden has not set obtainable priorities and policies for a second term, resting on his achievements of the first term to carry over. Given his low popularity ratings, that cannot be seen as an effective argument for reelection.
Donald Trump pontificates, struts and threatens even greater tariffs on China. Does he not understand that American consumers will bear those additional costs? Obviously not.
The director of the FBI testified to Congress that the threat of a terrorist attack against America has never been higher during his watch. By all accounts, antisemitism is soaring. And the country grows ever more divided over virtually every issue however important or trivial.
The best that can be done is make the southern border only porous as tens of thousands cross into America every day. This huge influx is draining the resources of many American cities who cannot cope with this added burden.
And where have Congress and the White House gone? On holiday.
Hence, for the moment, dystopia has all the ayes in the vote on what will become of 2024. Can that be overcome? The banal answer is yes. But it requires leadership. While that is the default answer to the problem, where have all the great leaders gone, and frankly, who in America cares?
The last leader in my view was George H. W. Bush. Subsequent presidents lacked all or at least one of the three most important qualities in leadership: character, experience and judgment.
Bush, although once demeaned as having been “born with a silver foot in his mouth,” had all three. One forgets he was for a period the Navy’s youngest bomber pilot who was shot down and wounded in action. He was also the last of the generation that fought and won World War II. And for other reasons, that war produced the greatest generation.
President Joe Biden surely has a lot of the right stuff in terms of character and experience, even given the excesses of his son. Sadly, in dealing with today’s world, one wonders about judgment. Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates accused Biden of being virtually on the wrong side of every major foreign policy issue post 9/11.
For a utopia or no-topia to have a fighting chance against the “dys,” the only American who can make a difference is the president. Here is where leadership is vital. Biden constantly is looking in the rearview mirror telling Americans about all the great things his administration has accomplished. He must now be forward looking.
First, what is being done so that the trillions appropriated for keeping America competitive are put to good use and what does that do for the future? What is being done not to turn China into an enemy despite the actions of many Americans to do precisely that? And what is being done to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and indeed halt the humanitarian crisis unfolding in that tiny strip of land?
That requires courage and leadership. OK, Mr. President — over to you!
Harlan Ullman is a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” is available on Amazon. He can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.