Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump suffer from historically low popularity, leaving many Americans with a choice between two candidates they dislike. Nonetheless, in a Biden vs. Trump matchup, Trump continues to steadily improve in the polls, leaving many Democrats dumbfounded.
How can a twice-impeached former president who is a threat to democracy, who has been indicted for felonies on four separate occasions, who is racist, misogynistic, xenophobic, homophobic and a generally offensive human being be tied in a race against Biden?
Let’s recognize two key things. First, the outcome of the 2024 election will be determined by a small number of independent voters in a few swing states. Second, the outcome of a race between two unpopular candidates is likely to hinge on who is perceived to have the fewer negatives.
A recent NBC poll showed Trump beating Biden by two-to-one among independent voters. The relevant question is why are the Democrats, and by extension Joe Biden, so unpopular with this key group that they might lose to a person such as Trump?
Part of this problem may be due to inadequate messaging about the accomplishments of President Biden, but it may also be because too many independent voters are scared by negative perceptions of what the Democratic party stands for. Given that the former president is skilled at negative branding, let’s consider what Trump actually says. He often claims that Democrats believe in open borders, hate America, are soft on crime and are socialists.
While none of these charges are categorically true, there is at least a shred of truth in each. Democrats will not be successful unless they preemptively counter these Trumpian talking points.
Do Democrats support open borders? Not explicitly, but many Democrats do support sanctuary cities and stopping deportations, while simultaneously opposing increased border security. Taken together, these policies are tantamount to supporting open borders. While some Democratic leaders espouse these points of view, many others are unwilling to openly and vigorously oppose such policies, perhaps for fear of being unfairly labeled as xenophobic or anti-immigrant.
Can the party commit to supporting comprehensive immigration reform and border security without including a de facto open borders policies?
Do Democrats hate America? A great many Democrats speak as if they hate America by frequently criticizing our country and rarely expressing praise. Contrast this with what Tyler Adams, captain of the USMNT soccer team, said in response to an Iranian reporter who asked if he was okay with representing the U.S. when there is so much discrimination against Black people in America: “There’s discrimination everywhere you go … in the U.S., we’re continuing to make progress every single day … as long as you see progress that’s the most important thing.”
Can Democratic leaders and liberal and progressive commentators recognize our serious racial problems while at the same time acknowledging the ongoing efforts to correct these problems?
Are Democrats soft on crime? Some Democrats either supported the “defund the police” movement or were unwilling to publicly oppose it. Granted, President Biden has since supported increasing funding for police, although much damage had already been done. Also troubling is the failure of Democratic leaders and progressive commentators to discuss the more general issue of street crime, perhaps for fear that it could be mischaracterized as racist.
Can the party stand for social justice in law enforcement while at the same time prosecuting criminals?
Are Democrats socialist as Donald Trump claims? Let us first note that the very definition of socialism varies. To be sure, very few Democrats are Marxist-style socialists. Yet polling shows that about half of Democrats have a favorable view of democratic socialism. Consider the near-successes of democratic socialist Bernie Sanders in running for the Democratic presidential nominations in 2016 and 2020. Furthermore, Democratic leaders frequently talk about the pitfalls of capitalism (of which there are many) while rarely speaking about its advantages (of which there are also many).
Can the party support reducing the economic inequalities of capitalism while at the same time endorsing its basic framework?
Democrats should still emphasize their accomplishments, pocketbook issues, social justice issues and climate change issues, while continuing to battle Republican-led culture wars and threats to democracy. But that is not enough. Democrats must also address issues like immigration, patriotism, crime and socialism, which unnerve many undecided voters.
In 1988, Michael Dukakis began with a solid lead in the polls that quickly evaporated in large part because he avoided confronting George H.W. Bush’s characterization of him. In 1992, Bill Clinton was quick to counter Bush’s attempts to define him, which helped to elect him as president.
Can Democrats learn from these experiences and win the crucial 2024 election?
George G. Adams is College of Engineering Distinguished Professor Emeritus at Northeastern University.