With the war between Israel and Hamas threatening to spread to other fronts, the United States, as Israel’s superpower ally, finds itself once again at the forefront of a global battle between good and evil. It is absolutely critical that President Biden continues to meet the moment while remaining cognizant of the challenges that lie ahead.
To his credit, Biden has thus far risen to the occasion. In his first address after Hamas’s attack which killed more than 1,400 Israelis, Biden did not mince words, denouncing the “pure, unadulterated evil” Hamas unleashed on the world. Biden gave no room to those, like the United Nations secretary general, who made a statement saying Hamas’s actions “did not happen in a vacuum,” implying that the massacre of more than 1,000 civilians was in part the result of Israel’s policy toward the Palestinians. He also doubled down on America’s shoulder-to-shoulder commitment to Israel’s security.
With that in mind, a victory lap would be grossly premature. Hamas is still holding more than 200 hostages, including Americans, in Gaza. Israel’s ground incursion has begun, which will lead to even greater casualties on both sides, and Iran continues its bellicose rhetoric while unleashing its proxy forces against U.S. soldiers in the Middle East, threatening to engulf the region in a full-blown war.
Further, the West Bank, which until Oct. 7 was Israel’s primary security concern, is a dangerous powder keg that could explode at any minute. There have been hundreds of gunfights between Hamas supporters and Israeli security forces in the area, and the Palestinian Authority — the internationally recognized government based in Ramallah — is powerless to curb the growing support for Hamas in the West Bank.
Put another way, while Biden has so far reminded the public that above being a politician, he is a statesman who can responsibly lead during moments of crises, the days and weeks ahead will present a multitude of serious challenges that will test Biden’s abilities to manage an increasingly complex set of threats at home and abroad.
With Israel in the early stages of its ground incursion designed to rescue the hostages and remove Hamas from power, the possibility of a multi-front war increases, either in southern Lebanon, Syria or the West Bank.
There is also the possibility of Israel getting bogged down in Gaza, which would further destabilize the region, along with Israel’s international standing. President Biden will have to manage these current risks with an eye to what comes after Israel achieves its mission in Gaza.
As Jerusalem has repeatedly stated that it does not want to permanently reoccupy Gaza, Biden will have to lead the global community in finding a solution that does not allow whatever remains of Hamas to retake power.
The extraordinary challenges facing the president are compounded by the administration’s weak posture towards Iran, which has emboldened the Ayatollah’s terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The latter has already attempted to launch missiles against Israel.
In that same vein, Biden must realize that any hopes for a renewed nuclear deal with Iran are gone. As we now know, hundreds of Hamas terrorists trained in Iran just weeks before their attack on Israel, and since Oct. 7, Iranian-backed militias have launched multiple attacks on American soldiers in Iraq and Syria. When the war between Israel and Hamas ends, there can be no going back to our former policy towards Iran, whether trying to placate their nuclear ambitions or rewarding their practice of taking Americans hostage in exchange for billions of dollars in ransom money.
In a positive sign that Biden understands the looming threats, he ordered a surge in U.S. military assets, including two aircraft carrier strike groups, to the region to serve as a deterrent against Hezbollah or Iranian attacks on Israel, and American military aid has already arrived in Israel. Biden also ordered strikes on weapons depots used by Iranian-backed forces in Syria as a warning shot.
While an admittedly small warning, Biden’s choosing to target a weapons depot instead of more significant Iranian targets showcased his ability to minimize the risks of a wider war in the Middle East, which Americans have no appetite for.
Biden faces challenges domestically as well. He will have to contend with the growing anti-Israel sentiment from the left flank of his own party. With the progressive left increasingly vocal in their opposition to Israel, including some refusing to vote to condemn Hamas, Biden will be responsible for keeping congressional Democrats unified behind Israel.
To that end, with one year until Americans go to the polls in the next presidential election, the war between Israel and Hamas presents an opportunity for President Biden to play into his personal strengths, and in turn, neutralize his biggest weakness.
It is well known that Biden’s most significant political vulnerability is his age, but in the case of foreign policy, age and experience often go hand in hand. Thus, as long as he stays cogent and on message — as he has the past three weeks — he will be able to make a leadership-based argument that resonates with voters. In this case, his years of experience will help neutralize the age issue for a lot of middle-of-the-road swing voters.
Ultimately, despite his initial success in managing the crises in the Middle East, it is too soon to know whether or not he can handle the difficulties of the conflict while preventing a wider war. Biden’s moral clarity on the issue has certainly helped thus far, although it is incumbent on the president to remain clear-eyed about the threats that loom on the horizon and have a strategy to both continue supporting Israel and strengthening America’s national security in the region.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.” Saul Mangel is a senior strategist at Schoen Cooperman Research.