Poll: Biden has to meet these challenges to catch up to Trump

Despite the four indictments facing Donald Trump, he continues to lead Joe Biden in the race for president, according to new national polling by our research firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, which finds Biden trailing Trump, 44 percent to 45 percent, in a general election matchup.  

Just as notably, Trump’s retrospective approval rating (52 percent approve, 44 percent disapprove) is markedly higher than Biden’s current one (44 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove) both overall and among independents, the all-important voter group that Biden won by 9 points in 2020. 

This is not a reflection of Trump’s strength, but rather a sign of Biden’s weakness. Both men are unpopular, and the prospect of a 2020 rematch is widely unappealing to voters, the majority (58 percent) of whom support having the option of a third-party alternative, versus just 21 percent who are satisfied with these choices.  

Still, if 2024 turns into another “lesser of two evils” election — between Biden and Trump — our data indicates that Biden could become a one-term president. 

The country’s frustration with inflation and wariness toward the idea of Vice President Kamala Harris being an 80-year-old’s heartbeat from the presidency are two of the many drags on President Biden’s reelection chances. This summer, the White House has been working to turn these political liabilities — the economy and Harris — into assets.  

But despite the pace of inflation slowing while job growth remains steady and unemployment stays low, the economy remains the major pain point for the president. Voters cite this as the most important issue facing the country, yet approximately seven in 10 disapprove of how Biden has handled it.  

Inflation fatigue has fostered widespread economic pessimism. Only a third of voters (33 percent) believe the U.S. economy is headed in the right direction, while most (58 percent) say it’s on the wrong track. In addition, voters are nearly twice as likely to say that their personal financial situation has worsened over the last year (42 percent) rather than improved (22 percent). 

Perhaps paradoxically, voters give Biden some credit for the economy in a vacuum. When asked to identify the major accomplishment of Biden’s term, a plurality (28 percent) cite his economic policy as it relates to job growth, alleviating pandemic consequences, avoiding a recession and inflation reduction. This sentiment could be a reflection of the country’s moderately improving economic outlook, which the administration has assiduously worked to highlight publicly, assigning credit to so-called “Bidenomics.”  

However, until Americans feel a tangible reduction in their cost of living — which may not happen until well after the 2024 election — this issue will continue to weigh on Biden immensely, and any credit he may receive for creating a strong economy will not translate to an improvement in his overall standing.

Currently, less than half (44 percent) of voters approve of Biden’s overall job performance, while 54 percent disapprove. This coincides with the vast majority of public polling over the last two years, which has shown Biden’s approval rating stuck in the low-to-mid 40s, and at times even dipping into the high-30s, as inflation has reared its ugly head. 

To be sure though, inflation is not the only issue weighing on the president. Along with the economy, voters cite immigration as Biden’s main failure, a sentiment that will almost certainly harden in light of July’s spike in illegal southern border crossings, which Republicans will seize on as proof that the Biden administration’s new post-Title 42 border control measures are ineffective. 

In addition to Biden’s weaknesses on these key issues, voters have serious concerns with the president personally, which could prove to be just as — if not more — challenging to overcome. After immigration (25 percent) and inflation (22 percent), voters name Biden’s age and competency (15 percent), followed by his communication skills and reliability (12 percent), as his biggest failures. 

The electorate will be watching closely to see how Biden handles the rigors of campaigning for president while being president, and Republicans certainly will not let him get away with another so-called basement campaign akin to the one he ran in 2020 at the height of the pandemic. But unlike rebranding a shaky economy, it is difficult to envision a scenario where Biden, at age 80, is able to overcome voters’ concerns about his age and fitness for office, hence the heightened focus on elevating the profile of the vice president, as his natural successor. 

Yet, Harris is even less well-liked. Her favorability and approval ratings have consistently lagged behind Biden’s; indeed, our poll finds Biden with a 46 percent favorable to 53 percent unfavorable rating, compared to 41 percent to 54 percent for Harris. 

That being said, Harris has seen an uptick in her popularity since the beginning of summer, indicating that the White House’s efforts to engage her on issues that inherently play to her advantage, like abortion, are helping. In an NBC News poll conducted in June, only 32 percent of voters viewed Harris favorably, so the 9-point increase to 41 percent in our poll certainly represents an improvement. 

Despite Harris’s modest gains, she is still polling far behind where she needs to be, given the outsized importance she will play in the 2024 campaign. Her ratings remain negative overall and are particularly poor with independents, only 31 percent of whom have a favorable impression of her, versus 59 percent who view her unfavorably.  

Many rashly assume that Biden can handily beat Trump, who has even more political and legal baggage now than he did when he lost the 2020 election. Democrats would be foolish to take that for granted.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”