Despite the indictments, Trump’s odds against Biden are still strong

As the first Republican primary debate approaches, former president Trump’s grasp on the GOP nomination remains firm. He holds a nearly 40-point lead in the polls and the 91 criminal charges against him have done nothing to dent his support among Republican voters.

Barring an unlikely comeback from one of the rival campaigns or other unforeseen circumstances, Trump is very likely to be the Republican presidential nominee come next July, and it appears as though the 2024 presidential election may be a rematch of 2020.

Even after Trump’s most recent indictment in Georgia (his fourth), the expected 2024 general election matchup remains close, as both Trump and President Biden are viewed very negatively by both their opposing party and independents.

In the theoretical national matchup, Biden holds just a half-point lead over Trump, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, signaling that Trump cannot be discounted in 2024.

These polling numbers are despite numerous negative indications for Trump, including his favorability rating dipping below 40 percent, a new poll showing a majority of Americans say they would not support him in 2024, his continued focus on repeating the unfounded claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him and the possibility that he will be a convicted criminal by the time November 2024 rolls around.

Biden and his advisers see their simplest path to winning reelection as making the contest a choice election between him and Trump and are hoping he will be the Republican nominee yet again.

Biden’s reelection campaign will seek to contrast what they believe is the president’s relative normalcy and competency — which some are coming to actively question — with Trump’s lies, grievances and conspiracy theories.

The likely central themes the president’s campaign will lean into are labeling Trump as an existential threat to democracy based on his actions on Jan. 6, 2021, and as the leader of the MAGA movement — which is unpopular with the vast majority of Americans.

Trump will not make it a difficult task for Biden’s team as he will have numerous trial dates between now and Election Day next year, and Trump and his sycophants — including some of his contenders for the Republican nomination — continue to clamor about the 2020 election and the supposed weaponization of the justice system against him.

The Democratic National Committee and Biden will also rely on policy issues such as protecting abortion rights and advocating for reasonable gun safety laws to win independents and suburban women who are uncomfortable with the rightward direction the GOP has taken.

Even though Trump lacks a coherent policy platform, is weak with the electorate and his core argument that the election was stolen does not resonate with the majority of the country, he still has a legitimate chance to beat Biden.

Biden himself has low ratings, as his job approval currently sits at 41 percent. Further, the president continues to be dragged down by questions about his age.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll from earlier this year found that a vast majority — 68 percent — of all Americans say Biden is too old for another term as president, while a lesser 44 percent say the same about Trump. Vice President Harris’s low approval rating — just 39 percent — does little to assuage concerns about Biden’s age.

The administration’s recent push on “Bidenomics” has also failed to pan out so far, as a new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found just 36 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance on the economy.

To make matters worse for the president, his son Hunter Biden cannot stay out of the news. The younger Biden’s plea deal on gun and tax charges fell through last month, which led to Attorney General Merrick Garland appointing David Weiss as special counsel. This will likely extend the case through the new year, causing substantial headaches for the president.

Further, House Republicans’ investigations into Hunter Biden’s business dealings while Joe Biden was vice president continue to persist and seem likely to lead to an impeachment inquiry at the very least. Another development came last week with the revelation that Biden may have sent emails using a pseudonym during his time as vice president; the House Oversight Committee is requesting more information.

Although Oversight Chairman Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) and company have failed to find any evidence of President Biden profiting from his influence, an impeachment inquiry will certainly serve to weaken the president’s standing, especially with crucial independent and moderate voters.

Thus, if Trump’s campaign can successfully make the election a referendum on President Biden and enough middle-of-the-road voters have questions about Biden’s ability to do the job, Trump may just be able to pull off an unlikely return to the White House.

It is still an enormous question for Trump whether he can stay on message well enough to turn the electorate against Biden.

To be sure, it is more likely than not that Trump will digress back into his cycle of lies and conspiracy theories. In this scenario, Trump will likely lose the election and Biden will be a two-term president. 

However, as evidenced by public opinion polling, President Biden’s weaknesses ensure that no matter how low he stoops, Donald Trump will have a viable path back to the presidency in 2024.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”