Two years ago, when I published “The fifth horseman and the new MAD,“ MAD stood for “massive attacks of disruption” — a 21st century replacement for the Cold War MAD, “mutual assured destruction.” The latter had referred to the existential threat to humanity of thermonuclear war as a deterrent to anyone launching a nuclear first strike.
In the book, I argued that massive attacks of disruption were indeed potentially and equally existential, if not to society as a whole, then certainly to our ways of life and living standards. Today, this is even more visibly obvious and irrefutable.
I noted seven major disruptors, among the most dangerous of which is a failed or failing government. Unless governments act to contain, prevent or restrain the other disruptors — climate change, environmental disasters, social media, debt, terror and drones — nations and people will be permanently at greater risk. And while the book’s title was probably too long already, MAD really needed an additional D for destruction.
A global scorecard establishes how these new massive attacks of disruption are already accelerating. The record extremes in global heat and the devastation on the Hawaiian island of Maui last week brought this home. A possible surge of COVID-19 is extremely worrisome. War in Ukraine continues. And global debt, likewise, is at record levels.
Twenty years ago, no one could have predicted how the state of the U.S. government would disintegrate. It is not that it is now becoming a gerontocracy. One candidate for president has been thrice indicted and could be once more. If he gets the nomination, Trump might well become a convicted felon seeking the presidency.
The incumbent, who will be 81 if reelected, is running with a very unpopular vice president and the baggage of a son whose conduct could put him in jail.
More to the point, a supermajority of Americans do not wish to see either leading candidate on the ticket, repeating the 2020 presidential election. This dissatisfaction with the government is not limited to the U.S. Whether in autocracies such as China or democracies such as Britain, people are not in good moods.
In many countries, especially the U.S., most or many institutions have lost public trust and confidence. In too many cases, credibility and respect cease to exist.
Traditionally, Congress has low public opinion ratings. While presidencies were often held in high esteem — Richard Nixon’s approval ratings before Watergate in January 1973 were about 68 percent — the last two decades have not been as kind to our chief executives. And now the Supreme Court, once a bastion of respectability, is held in favorable regard by a record-low 40 percent as of this month.
Among individuals, personal trust and confidence can be shattered in moments and only repaired in decades, if at all. It normally takes longer for failing governments and institutions to reach such points and recover, if they do. And in democracies and republics, people get the government they elect, and thus, deserve.
When asked what institutions one trusts, often, no answer is immediate or even forthcoming. Whether all failed civilizations succumbed to this rise and fall in legitimacy and other factors or not, Americans must confront this issue. Is the U.S. governable? Can individuals or even small groups reverse this decline?
Ironically, even with some 67 percent of eligible Americans voting in the 2020 presidential elections, the federal government only seems to get worse in how it administers “certain unalienable rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.” And term limits for Congress or the emergence of a third party aren’t necessarily the answers.
As difficult as it sounds, only those most responsible for damaging the nation must be held responsible for undoing their work. And those are the Democratic and Republican parties. Both have been dominated by extremes of left and right. And both have placed power over principle in seeking to win elections by any means. It is no accident that political parties are not mentioned in the Constitution.
I believe President Joe Biden is a principled person who is no longer at the top of his game. He should not run again. I believe — and I say this as a permanently registered independent — that Donald Trump is unfit for any public office, least of all the presidency. But will either party act to correct these conditions?
Democrats and Republicans must learn to govern again. If both do not come to their senses soon, the unchecked disruption and destruction done by MAD to the U.S. that follows will be incalculable. Is anyone listening?
Harlan K. Ullman, Ph.D., is a senior advisor at Washington, D.C.’s Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book was “The fifth horseman and the new MAD.”