It is the moment of truth for Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso. A host of forces in the country — anti-democratic, pro-illicit drug production, pro-Russia, pro-Chinese Communist Party, and forces generally opposed to the rule of law — have begun the process to remove Lasso, the legitimately elected president. Lasso greatly needs U.S. support right now, given the timeline for impeachment, which is less than 30 days away.
Embezzlement accusations against President Lasso surround a contract by Ecuadorian oil shipping company, Flopec, that was signed before Lasso took office. He has been accused of knowingly allowing a contract which “harms the state” to continue unchecked. In his defense, his administration has sought to address the problems in the contract. Lasso’s brother-in-law, Danilo Carrera, has similarly been implicated on charges of corruption. Ultimately, the accusations are not about the case; rather, they are about overthrowing the legitimately elected government of Ecuador through a process other than the ballot box.
If this case succeeds, the current Vice President, Alfredo Borrero, will become the interim president for the remainder of the term. Given that these actions taken against Lasso are not truly about any legal case, one should expect that these same political forces will try to remove Borrero as well. The goal is to weaken Lasso’s party to clear the way for one of former President Rafael Correa’s acolytes. One should note that the accusations against President Lasso are far less serious than those that were made President Lula da Silva of Brazil.
The United States has been too slow to help President Lasso.
While Lasso has repeatedly asked for a free trade agreement, we took a pass. With no U.S. alternative, Lasso turned to China for a trade deal instead.
Lasso similarly asked for a “Plan Colombia for Ecuador” to confront corruption, drugs, security and development, but the U.S. has been too slow to say yes. As a result, the security situation in Ecuador has been unravelling. Our foreign aid should help “deliver on democracy” by responding specifically to the security issues that are impacting citizens in Guayaquil and other cities.
There have been several high-level visits to Ecuador in the last two years from the Biden administration, which is a good thing. Biden received Lasso in the Oval Office in December, appropriate for a good friend like Ecuador under President Lasso.
Now would be an opportune time for a high-level Biden administration visit to President Lasso, perhaps focused on U.S. foreign assistance.
The U.S. is due to put forward a new ambassador to Ecuador this summer, which will require a hearing in the U.S. Senate. The next few weeks would be the time for members of Congress to go on the record about Ecuador. Sens. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and James Risch (R-Idaho) have put forward the “IDEA Act” to support Ecuador; it calls on Ecuador to be a part of the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act and builds on legislation passed in December 2022 strengthening the U.S.-Ecuador partnership. Congress should pass that now as a show of support.
We need more voices on both sides of the aisle speaking up for Ecuador. Sens. Menendez and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) made a last minute, but crucial and very useful visit earlier this month. Their presence and their constructive statements were covered in the Ecuadorian press.
Five (relatively junior) Democratic party House members wrote a letter supporting the removal of President Lasso. As there are more than 430 members of Congress, the letter by these irresponsible members should be countered by more serious voices.
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) and Western Hemisphere Sub-Committee Chair Maria Salazar (R-Fla.) have put out a helpful statement of support for Ecuador.
The Biden administration’s Special Advisor to the Americas, Chris Dodd, met with Lasso at the end of last year, and there have been reports that Dodd called Lasso in the last couple of weeks. Perhaps there are other ways for the administration to show support for Lasso without “overdoing it.”
The stakes are very high.
If President Lasso is removed, it is likely that a far-left government in favor of Venezuela and Russia will take his place.
That would mean the fight against drugs in the hemisphere will be that much harder.
A new far-left regime in Ecuador would also likely support the Russian position in its illegal war on Ukraine in the United Nations, the authoritarian Maduro region in Venezuela, and the authoritarian Ortega regime in Nicaragua. Crony capitalists would have the upper hand in Ecuador, and the country’s development would be negatively impacted. Those who might invest in Ecuador will hesitate, and the poor will suffer.
Alternatively, if President Lasso dissolves the Ecuadorian Congress, a power that he has, there could be a constitutional crisis similar to what has happened in Peru.
Lasso has taken on drugs and narco-trafficking. The amount of drugs seized by prior administrations averaged about 30 tons; after Lasso was elected president, his administration stopped over 10 times that amount, with 400 tons of illicit narcotics seized.
President Lasso has taken on the forces of corruption, drugs, insecurity, and soft authoritarianism. He currently has slightly more than two years remaining in his term, and he should be allowed to finish it and then run for re-election. If the left wins the next election, so be it. President Lasso deserves the chance to run for re-election.
The U.S. should always stand with democratic leaders who share our values, who work to improve the quality of life for their citizens, and who seek to improve safety and security.
U.S. leaders need to stand with President Lasso right now. The U.S. has been too slow to help him. We are in the eleventh hour, and it’s late — but not too late.
Daniel F. Runde is a senior vice president and William A. Schreyer chair in Global Analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He previously worked for the U.S. Agency for International Development, the World Bank Group, and in investment banking, with experience in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East. He is the author of “The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power” (Bombardier Books, 2023)