The true state of the union is pessimistic

President Joe Biden met the moment in this year’s State of the Union address and deserves credit for what was a clear public relations success.

Yet, the optimistic vision of America’s economy that Biden articulated is largely at odds with public opinion, and his stated goal to “finish the job” he was elected to do will be difficult — if not impossible — to achieve, given the hostility he faces from the Republican-controlled House. 

Notwithstanding these larger challenges, Biden delivered a very solid performance last Tuesday. He was energetic and confident at a time when he, as the oldest president in history, needs to demonstrate his ability to endure the rigors of another six years in office. Even Democrats are uneasy about Biden’s age, as recent polling finds that nearly 6 in 10 Democratic voters would prefer someone else to be their party’s 2024 presidential nominee. 

Biden’s address may have partly eased these concerns, as he displayed remarkable coolness and quickness while being heckled by Republicans in the audience. Those moments also enabled the president to draw an implicit and important contrast with his political opponents: Biden came off as measured and pragmatic, while raucous Republicans shouted from their seats, prompting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to visibly shush his members.

In terms of its substance, Biden’s address mostly touched on the right notes, as well. He towed the centrist line, touting the major bipartisan laws that were passed during his first term, including infrastructure investment and gun reform — achievements that represent a rejection of left-wing politics if nothing else and point the way forward for the administration legislatively in the two years to come. To that end, the president made an explicit appeal to Republicans on Tuesday to “work together and find consensus on important things in this Congress.”

Even so, Biden’s plea is unlikely to sway the bloodthirsty House GOP caucus, whose most prominent members have given every indication that obstructing Biden’s agenda and investigating the White House are their top priorities, rather than legislating.  

Despite Biden’s best efforts — rhetorically and substantively — to promote bipartisanship, the next two years in Washington will be marred by partisan fights, political investigations and endless accusations against his administration. There will likely be few, if any, substantive accomplishments and the president, his White House and his family will face an unprecedented level of scrutiny. 

Still, Biden and Democrats can advocate for incremental solutions to major issues over the next two years, i.e., the cost of living, if only to draw a contrast with Republicans akin to the one we made during the Clinton administration in the mid-to-late 1990s: The GOP cares only about politics and partisanship, while Democrats stand for progress. 

Clearly, the most compelling distinction that Biden and Democrats can and should continue to draw is their party’s commitment to protecting Social Security and Medicare, versus the willingness of at least some Republicans — most notably Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) — to cut these critical entitlement programs. 

Even if nothing is achieved legislatively from this positioning, based on my experience working with President Clinton, this contrast invariably will work to the Democrats’ advantage on Election Day. 

While the inflation trajectory is largely out of Biden’s control, the more the president can do to make progress vis-à-vis keeping costs under control when it comes to an issue like health care — or at the very least, show Americans that he is making every effort to do so — the better this issue will play for Democrats in 2024. 

Last Tuesday, Biden called for capping insulin at an affordable level, which is the precise type of targeted and politically viable reform that Democrats should advance over the next two years. Another similarly practical solution is rebate reform, i.e., cutting out the middlemen in drug pricing to make drugs more affordable, which would drive down the day-to-day cost of living for millions of Americans. 

That being said, Americans’ economic pessimism and largely negative views of Biden will likely weaken his ability to use the presidency as a bully pulpit to cajole Republicans into working together on any legislation, even if a broad consensus exists. 

Despite notching several notable achievements as president, the majority of Americans (62 percent) — including two-thirds of independents and more than one-fifth (22 percent) of Democrats — feel that Biden has achieved “not very much” or “nothing.” Only 3 in 10 Americans, and even fewer independents, are confident that Biden is making the right decisions for the country’s future.

The president’s job ratings are also underwater. Just 42 percent of Americans approve of him, and only 37 percent approve of his handling of the economy — data that is hard to square with Biden’s rosy interpretation of the strength of the American economy. 

Last Tuesday, the president touted the record 12 million jobs created under his administration, as well as unemployment reaching a 53-year low of 3.4 percent. Still, the percentage of Americans who believe they are financially worse off now compared to one year ago is higher than at any point since May 2009 — at the height of the great financial crisis — when the unemployment rate was nearly triple what it is today. 

Taken together, these findings underscore the immense challenges Biden will face as he prepares to run for reelection. His efforts to tout his administration’s economic achievements from the first half of his term are falling flat; all the while, his agenda will be brought to a standstill by the Republican-controlled House in the second half of his term.

All in all, even though Biden’s speech struck the right tone and tenor, his view of his administration’s accomplishments and vision for America, unfortunately, don’t jibe with reality.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. He is the author of “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”