Yes, Ron DeSantis can beat Donald Trump in the GOP primary

There is no bigger indicator of who will be a superstar in the Republican Party than where the media focuses its vitriol, and mainstream media journalists are increasingly busying themselves attempting to take out one Florida man whose name isn’t Donald Trump — Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

A mere glance at recent headlines reveals a markedly ratcheted-up nastiness in rhetoric surrounding the governor: “Gov. Ron DeSantis’s racist ‘Election Integrity’ crusade”; “Ron DeSantis should be prosecuted for his treatment of immigrants”; “Ron DeSantis’s War on LGBTQ People.” The hostile tone and the sheer number of news stories and editorials regarding DeSantis suggest that the journalist class realizes that he represents a formidable threat ahead of 2024. And although Trump may see himself as the king of the GOP, DeSantis could very well beat the former president in a primary race. 

A year ago, most politicos would have confidently predicted Trump could easily clinch the GOP nomination in 2024, should he decide to run. The constant, near-daily media attacks on the former president, including the seemingly politically motivated tones scarring the investigations of what happened at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, only made the former president’s base more defiant and defensive in their support. 

Trump still polls as the GOP’s top choice in 2024 primary polls; however, his lead has consistently dwindled as support for DeSantis has swelled over the past year. Strong momentum is clearly on the Florida governor’s side. A recent New York Times poll has Trump at 47 percent, with DeSantis at 28 percent. Consider that just last year, DeSantis was polling at only 19 percent among likely GOP primary voters. The numbers get even more concerning for Trump in certain battleground states. DeSantis actually beat Trump in recent New Hampshire and Florida surveys. If DeSantis could win a string of early primary victories, the race could be a heated two-man contest.

The most significant advantage DeSantis has over Trump is that he is in a position of power that allows him to consistently showcase his abilities as a leader and grow name recognition nationally. Every day that DeSantis is in a position of power while Trump remains unemployed bolsters the Florida governor’s 2024 prospects. For many voters, DeSantis offers all the upsides of Trump — a populist conservative agenda and bold, fighting spirit — without the downsides — 3 a.m. Twitter fights and lackluster follow-through. 

From his decisive leadership during the pandemic, to ridding Florida’s lower schools of critical race theory and gender theory, to shipping migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, DeSantis has shown conservative voters he’s the real deal. While their policies don’t entirely align, DeSantis’s media savvy and strategic thinking has effectively positioned him as the Thinking Man’s Trump.      

In times of crisis and controversy, DeSantis has been out front. His skilled handling of Hurricane Ian defused the media’s attempts to create a Katrina scenario. The governor has touted the quick reopening of a series of seriously damaged or destroyed bridges following the storm. At the same time, he has mastered the art of balancing intelligent rhetoric with fearlessness in his dealings with the media. 

Meanwhile, Trump mostly has himself to blame for his current polling woes. Most Republicans supported his America First-style policies and appreciated the booming economy during his term. However, Trump’s focus isn’t on that, nor is it on inflation or on rising crime rates. The Don’s thoughts, as usual, are on himself. Even his numerous endorsements in 2022 races have more to do with personal loyalty to Trump than to electability or ideology (Exhibit A: Dr. Mehmet Oz, who is barely a conservative, in Pennsylvania). Therein lies the weakness in a man who has already proven he could win the White House.

There is a more than minor segment of the general public who just want to be rid of the 24/7 Trump drama. Some desire another conservative. Some desire anyone other than the 45th president. By positioning himself as a true problem solver, DeSantis is becoming a beacon for the different factions of the GOP. Those who like Trump’s policies, those who appreciate leadership and accountability, and those who want a fresh candidate can all agree on DeSantis.

The former president and the average Republican voter may not have realized it yet, but DeSantis is setting himself up for a Reagan 1980 run, especially if he gets to run against our latter-day Jimmy Carter in Joe Biden. That is why the media has so completely coalesced against him. Trump can only succeed if he is the center of attention. Media hatred for DeSantis’s competence will give him the spotlight that Trump’s behavior forfeited.

Donald Trump more than anyone should be cautious about thoughts of inevitability. He should learn from the defeated. Twice, Hillary Clinton set herself up to be the “let’s get it over with” automatic successor. In 2016, Trump took her presumptuousness and scored four years in the White House. Eight years earlier, Clinton entered the Democratic primary with double the support of Barack Obama. If Obama, with nearly no experience and a load of charisma, can take down one political dynasty, then DeSantis —  who has both experience and charisma — might be able to take down another.

Kristin Tate is a libertarian writer and an analyst for Young Americans for Liberty. She is an author whose latest book is “How Do I Tax Thee? A Field Guide to the Great American Rip-Off.” Follow her on Twitter @KristinBTate.