2022 is a tale of 2 presidents

2022 started as a typical midterm contest. During the spring and early summer, President Biden’s approval ratings fell dramatically as inflation tightened its grip on the economy. By June, Biden’s numbers cratered at 37 percent — lower even than President Trump’s 40 percent at a similar point in 2018. Skyrocketing gas and grocery prices served as de facto campaign signs for Republican candidates. Using President Obama’s memorable 2010 phrase, Democrats were poised for a “shellacking.”

That Republicans were poised for victory validated a political truism — that first term presidents suffer defeats in midterm elections. History proves the point. In 1982, President Reagan’s Republicans lost 26 House seats. That year, 47 percent disapproved of Reagan’s performance, and 51 percent gave him a grade of D or F in handling unemployment, which had risen to 10.8 percent.

1994 was a disaster for another presidential newcomer. President Clinton’s Democrats lost 54 House seats, and Republicans gained control of that body for the first time in four decades. Clinton’s ban on assault weapons, and his “don’t ask, don’t tell” order permitting gays to serve in the military were met with fierce resistance. “HillaryCare” also proved deadly, as the first lady offered a complex health care plan that few could decipher.

2010 was another debacle for a beginner president. Forty-seven percent disapproved of Obama’s health care law, and Democrats lost their congressional majorities. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) stated that his “top political priority” was to make Obama a one-term president, and the midterm result seemed to prove his point.

The axiom that midterms produce failing grades for rookie presidents points to another truism — the harsh realities they face once in office are quite different from the eutopias promised during their campaigns. Even the rare presidents who defied the conventional wisdom illustrate the point. In 1934, Democrats increased their congressional majorities to a staggering 322 House members and 76 senators. The results were a validation of President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal.

In 2002, President George W. Bush won belated ballots thanks to his ability to unite the country behind him after the 9/11 attacks. That year, Republicans gained eight House seats and two senators. Both elections were previews of coming attractions. In 1936, FDR routed the Republicans and won 5 million more votes than in 1932. In 2004, national security was a potent issue, and George W. Bush defeated John Kerry because of it.

Another cardinal rule is that while midterms are referendums, presidential elections are choices. In 1984, Reagan castigated former Vice President Walter Mondale as a “tax and spend” Democrat. In 1994, Clinton painted Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kansas) as a throwback to a dated past. Eight years later, Obama cast Mitt Romney as an out-of-touch plutocrat. Biden likes to quote his Dad’s aphorism: “Joey, don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.” Presidential contests bear out the truism behind Biden’s oft-repeated line.

This year is different. Biden has rebounded from his summer doldrums thanks to falling gasoline prices, some easing of inflation and using his presidential pen to make big things happen. When asked about specific provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, 71 percent support allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices; 65 percent approve extending health insurance subsidies for middle-income Americans; and 61 percent want businesses earning $1 billion or more to pay a minimum 15 percent corporate income tax.

As for Biden’s executive order forgiving $10,000 in student loans, 46 percent say they are more likely to back a congressional candidate supporting the measure, while 33 percent are less likely. Sixty-five percent approve of Biden’s infrastructure law, which is the largest government investment since the Federal Highway Act was signed by President Eisenhower in 1956. Finally, 64 percent like the recently passed gun legislation, and 63 percent think Congress needs to do more — something Republicans have staunchly resisted.

But this election is about more than Biden’s compelling message. Once again, Donald Trump is dominating the headlines. The search warrant of his Mar-a-Lago estate and the recovery of classified information there potentially violates several federal laws and is currently under intense investigation.

In Georgia, prosecutors are looking into Trump’s involvement in attempting to “find 11,780 votes” that would have invalidated Biden’s win in the Peach State. New York’s attorney general is investigating whether the Trump Organization misled lenders and tax authorities. And the Jan. 6 hearings will resume in September after devastatingly portraying Trump as actively engaged in an insurrection.

Each day’s headlines are filled with new investigative details and courtroom dramas. Not surprisingly, Trump’s approval numbers have suffered: 54 percent view him negatively, and 50 percent want him prosecuted for his mishandling of top-secret documents. Moreover, the overturning Roe v. Wade by the Trump-packed Supreme Court has been met with overwhelming disapproval. Fifty-eight percent reject the court’s decision, and suburban women along with young voters are newly energized to vote against Republicans in November.

Biden has a disconcerting habit of finding himself with his back to the wall and digging deep to stage a comeback. This Harry Truman-like quality has made a mockery of pundit wizardry.

In 2020, Biden suffered devastating losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, and political prognosticators were writing his political obituary before he bounced back in South Carolina. The start of this year’s campaign found Biden facing even more daunting circumstances. But in a prime-time address last week, Biden found his voice, casting the “MAGA Republicans” as extremists who threaten “the very foundations of our republic.” Trump, meanwhile, has labeled Biden “an enemy of the state.”

All of a sudden, the conventional wisdom has been upended. While the outcomes of the 2022 contests remain uncertain, the old rules no longer apply. 2022 has become a tale of two presidents. We have reached the political equivalent of finding ourselves on Mars. Surprises await.

John Kenneth White is a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America. His latest book, co-authored with Matthew Kerbel, is titled “American Political Parties: Why They Formed, How They Function, and Where They’re Headed.”