Is Trumpism finally cracking?

Beltway pundits have been predicting former President Trump’s political downfall almost from the moment Trump announced his candidacy in 2015. There may be a worse bet in Washington, but you’d be hard-pressed to find it. 

Trump seems to defy the laws of political gravity. Not only has he survived multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, countless administration scandals and a historic two impeachments, he’s done so with his popularity largely intact among Republicans. And while a 44 percent national favorability rating isn’t anything to celebrate, Trump has proven it is enough to win the presidency in a country deeply divided by political polarization.

But recent GOP primary polling and public comments by prominent Republicans indicate that the ground may be shifting under Trump’s feet. What’s worse for The Donald, much of the harshest criticism comes from former MAGA faithful who are increasingly questioning Trump’s fitness to lead the insurgent movement he founded. 

Trump drew rare criticism from fellow Republicans for his endorsement of Dr. Mehmet Oz, a snake-oil selling daytime television star and Republican candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania. Former candidate Sean Parnell described himself as “disappointed” by Trump’s decision, calling Oz “the antithesis of everything that made Trump the best president of my lifetime.” 

Breitbart’s Joel Pollak went further, warning that Trump’s endorsement of Oz “could divide MAGA in the only way that matters: He could lose the America First conservatives over it.” For a party that loyally stomached Trump’s full endorsement of Roy Moore’s doomed Alabama Senate bid, Dr. Oz is simply a bridge too far. 

Trump’s base of strength within the GOP has always been his ability to command loyalty from Republican lawmakers, even at the expense of their own political prospects. But pollster Frank Luntz suggests Trump’s awe-inspiring effect on his party’s players may be fading. In an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash, Luntz described a former president widely mocked – albeit privately and quietly – within his party’s elite circles. That might seem minor for Democrats used to mocking their party’s agitators, but it represents a huge breach of loyalty in a Trumpified GOP.

The former president’s control over his party is slipping in large part because of a self-inflicted wound. During a radio interview on Feb. 22, Trump praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “genius” and applauded Putin’s “savvy” invasion of Ukraine. The issue became an immediate Republican loyalty test, dividing the party based on Republican lawmakers’ willingness to cheer authoritarianism if that pleases Trump.

Praising Putin earned Trump unexpectedly strong (if sometimes indirect) criticism from prominent Republican lawmakers such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who urged President Biden to take immediate action against “Putin’s aggression.” In a rare show of independence, Senate Republicans lined up to distance themselves from Trump’s remarks by issuing their own condemnations of Putin’s lawlessness.

Republicans’ fleeting moment of Trump criticism on Ukraine has emboldened many within the party to voice their own concerns about the party’s increasingly erratic direction. Trump’s strident endorsement of Oz in Pennsylvania – and the MAGA world’s confident rebuke of Trump’s vaunted “three-dimensional chess” political strategy – is the most public test yet of the former president’s ability to shape the GOP in his own image. 

All that strife within the MAGA movement is hitting Trump where it hurts: rally attendance. With Trump’s messengers internally conflicted, audiences are beginning to zone out. A recent North Carolina Trump rally drew a paltry 1,000 to 2,000 attendees, down almost 90 percent over a rally at the same venue during his 2016 presidential campaign. The MAGA movement drew Republicans with its ceaseless stream of attacks against Hillary Clinton and now Joe Biden. Voters seem less interested when MAGA leaders are unloading their ammunition on each other.

Trump’s excesses haven’t doomed him yet, but his movement now faces its most sustained Republican criticism since Jan. 6, when Trump remained silent while his supporters ransacked the Capitol complex. With Trump’s endorsed candidates inspiring as much derision as praise and a growing number of GOP hopefuls looking ahead to 2024, the question Republicans must now answer is whether Trump is still an essential part of the MAGA movement. 

Unless Trump and his lieutenants can reinforce the former president’s grip on loose-lipped GOP critics, the MAGA movement could fracture just as Republicans head into a critical midterm election cycle. That would be disastrous for the GOP, but it would be politically fatal for an increasingly vulnerable Trump.

Max Burns is a Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies, a progressive communications firm. Follow him on Twitter @themaxburns.