How space is changing the nature of war

In January, the Air Force Research Laboratory changed the nature of warfare, and most people missed it. The Vanguard Program, led by Gregory Spanjers, Ph.D., awarded $102 million to SpaceX to explore point-to-point rocket cargo delivery. This is the first contract of its kind awarded to a launch provider and signals a historic revolution in the direction of military strategy.

While the thought of rocket cargo delivery may seem novel to most, visionary military strategists have been stressing the importance of this unique capability, link to other emerging technologies, and importance to the nature of warfare for years. In 2016, the Air Force quietly conducted a series of wargames to determine the impact of lowering the cost to access space for Air Force mission sets, publishing “A Rapid Global Effects Capability.” Later, based on these thoughts and findings, the Air Force’s Air University published “The Implications of Lowering the Cost to Access Space on Airpower” and a “Fast Space Strategy” in 2017.

The significance of the Vanguard Program with SpaceX is two-fold. First, it signals to industry that the Department of Defense (DoD) is ready to partner with industry at a larger scale with respect to space. Previously content with contracting launch capability to place satellites in orbit, the DoD is now deliberately expanding the use of space-related capabilities to impact other missions. SpaceX’s rocket cargo delivery plans to deploy a C-17’s worth of cargo or personnel anywhere in the world within an hour. The technologies associated with accomplishing this goal are closely associated with other mission sets, such as a without the need for landing. While industry has been developing these technologies for their own goals, such as the dual-use implications of landing a Starship Rocket on Mars, the increase in capital invested by the DoD changes the technology landscape and accelerates development.

Equally as important, the rocket cargo delivery contract also signals the importance of “expanded maneuver in time and space” on the future of warfare, both physically and cognitively, in the new Joint Warfighting Concept. The DoD has long stressed the importance of “kill chains,” or the ability to hold targets at risk to deter aggression and achieve military objectives, if necessary. This term, however, has become overused and encourages a tactical mindset with respect to complicated international relations and strategic challenges. The enhancement of maneuver warfare through rocket cargo delivery implies a greater emphasis on strategic deterrence and discourages aggression worldwide. 

The concept of anti-access area denial (A2AD) has become common language when discussing the East and South China Seas or Taiwan. The idea, however, is not uncommon in history as militaries have always tried to create defensive barriers to achieve an advantage. This is evident from the trenches of WWI to the skies over Iraq in Operation Desert Storm and is currently being pursued by Ukraine as they receive weapons shipments from the U.S. and allies.

While the costs can be high, these concepts are often overcome with advancements in techno-strategies, such as the Manhattan Project during WWII. Rocket cargo delivery represents the beginnings of a techno-strategy to change the strategic discussion regarding potential conflict with China or any powerful adversary. The ability to rapidly deploy cargo and personnel through space to support contingency operations complicates the strategic calculus of an adversary. The potential capability to land Starship in an austere environment, the challenge of targeting a rocket reentry from space, an expendable payload, and the ability to deploy numerous other capabilities from the cargo bay of a rocket are all factors that allow rocket cargo delivery to revolutionize the nature of warfare.

Additionally, Starship’s mass to orbit capability also allows for the ability to rapidly reconstitute a satellite constellation and the multi-role Starship variants additionally provide an on-orbit refueling capability. These unique mission sets further the ability to deter aggression and complicate and adversary’s strategy.

The U.S. military is not alone in the recognition that the nature of warfare has changed.  The Chinese are investing in their own rocket cargo delivery capabilities. Beijing Lingkong Tianxing (“Beijing Space Transportation”) are developing point-to-point rockets with a vertical takeoff/landing capability and flyback booster. Their stated objectives include launching from Shanghai and arriving in Dubai in 60 minutes, covering 4,350 miles. Thus far they’ve raised close to $61 million in Series A/A+ funding. This represents a capital advantage over the current U.S. marketplace. U.S. venture capitalists and many companies and are focused on funding jets and ramjets that operate at Mach 5 and below. As other companies such as Blue Origin sign up for the same Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) that SpaceX agreed to years ago, the DoD should stress expanding partnerships with industry in the space launch sector. Capital injection into leading U.S. companies who focus on Mach 5+ rocket-powered transportation is needed to maintain a strategic advantage. As the nature of warfare changes, the relationship between industry and the DoD is now more important than ever.

Lieutenant Colonel Gabe S. Arrington is a national defense fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, D.C and Seminar XXI fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  Prior to his current assignment he was the executive officer to the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Lieutenant Colonel Justin W. Chandler is currently assigned to the United States Space Force Headquarters Staff at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C. Prior to his current assignment he served in multiple aviation and space-related assignments.

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Air Force, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government.