Will your spouse cheat on you? Here’s what the data say.

“Betrayal” is the worst word in the English language. The worst manner in which we experience this ultimate degradation is from the one person who has sworn before God and family never to do it — one’s spouse.

And man oh man, does it happen a lot.

More than 36 percent of men and 19 percent of women report having cheated on their spouses. Given that most cheaters are unwilling to admit to it, we can assume that the real number is significantly higher — perhaps twice that in each case.

This would mean that a majority of marriages have had one or both spouses cheat on the other at some point in their relationship.

I found this number to be staggering. And it got me wondering — what are the signs? What type of person is most likely to cheat? What are the most likely scenarios people cheat in? What circumstances increase the likelihood? What are the red flags you should look for?

The results surprised me. 

First, cheating seems to be a crime of opportunity. Of those who admitted to having an affair, half of them did so with a co-worker. It may be that time spent together allows for emotional connections to form, or the simple proximity option of who is readily available. It could also be that the “acceptable” aspects of spending late nights or work nights out of town together makes it a lot easier to lie to your partner, making cheating with a co-worker the most common and easiest of the cheating options.

So apparently, the majority of cheaters don’t follow the old admonition not to foul the place where you eat.

The second most likely candidate for affair partner is a close friend of both spouses — the choice of 33 percent of the cheating men and 25 percent of the cheating women. So between this and the data on co-workers, it seems safe to say that most affairs begin with some sort of personal or work friendship.

Maybe there is something to what my best friend says — that men and women can never be just friends. But what is most interesting is that, what both of these potential cheating relationships have in common is that more than 25 percent of cheaters say that the person they cheat with provides the emotional support or understanding that their spouse doesn’t give them.

I find two things interesting about this. First, I have never been able to figure out why you wouldn’t just leave someone first instead of cheating on them, but that’s a personal observation. What is even more fascinating is that it means 75 percent of cheaters do it simply because they can, not because they are unhappy at home or feel emotionally unfulfilled.

This implies that people will cheat on even the most beautiful and loving spouses, since most of the time, it really has nothing to do with personal unhappiness in one’s marriage. I wonder whether this has been particularly exacerbated by social media and its clear effect on having a plethora of options, and the general increase in ego and the need for validation that it has created among the most insecure people. 

This lead to me thinking, well, does that mean only young people cheat i.e. the ones who spend the most time on social media. I mean who hasn’t done something in a relationship in their 20s that they regret? But surprisingly no, over 40 percent of cheaters do it when they have been in a relationship for over 10 years, so no matter how long you’ve been together, there is no reason to feel safer in your relationship- in fact, it’s the opposite (so enjoy it while you can?). 

We have clear evidence of why and when this ultimate betrayal occurs, but what about the who? Is there some kind of clarity on what type of person is most likely to do this?

Whenever I have had a good friend who comes to me with the horrible news that their partner or spouse has cheated on them, the first words out of my mouth are “Scum,” “Doesn’t deserve you,” “Pathetic,” and other epithets I can’t write here. But I would say that about half the time I’m thinking, “I’m not surprised,” and the other half I’m thinking, “I didn’t see this one coming in a million years.” So is there some red flag we can watch for? 

Let’s look at gender first. The rates at which men and women cheat have an inverse relationship. The older men get, the rate at which they cheat almost doubles. The older women get, the rate at which they cheat halves. So basically, if you’re a female, be a cougar. If you’re a man, then you would be statistically well served to avoid robbing the cradle. 

What are the main red flags you should be looking for if you are determined to not be cheated on? Unfortunately, if you’re cheated on it doesn’t usually lead to empathy in the future, but rather a need to cheat on your partner (about a 30 percent increase in chances that a former victim of cheating will cheat themselves in the future). If you have a strong belief in the importance of religion you have a significantly lower chance of cheating, but if you actually attend religious worship services then the chance you cheat increases! I guess that means you can sleep in on Sunday mornings. 

If you ask your partner what they consider cheating and they have a very clear and definite answer then they are about half as likely to cheat as someone who wiggles around the answer or doesn’t have a clear definition – same as if you are able to say you are ‘’very satisfied with your relationship” versus just ‘satisfied” i.e. make sure you are striving for that A+ instead of a B+ in your relationship satisfaction. 

But of everything, what was I most shocked about during this deep-dive into the world of cheating? That neither political affiliation nor income are statistically significant indicators. I guess some things truly are still bipartisan.

And lastly, apparently Nicole Kidman’s “Babygirl” movie actually bucks statistical trends. Women in non-managerial roles are more likely to cheat, whereas it is the opposite for men — those in power positions are about 50 percent more likely to cheat. 

Betrayal is still the worst word in the English language, but statistics can help us understand it a bit better. It is basically down to the insecurity, vanity and ego of the cheater. It has very little to do with the other partner.

My favorite part of all of this was a study that used AI to generate an image of the man most likely to cheat, created from thousands of testimonials from women who had been cheated on. The most likely suspect was a blue-eyed, bald man in his 40s with a large nose and light facial hair.

Thank goodness my husband has boring old brown eyes and shaves every day. 

Liberty Vittert is a professor of data science at Washington University in St. Louis and the resident on-air statistician for NewsNation, a sister company of The Hill.