Why not Mars in 2033? 

Editor’s note: This piece was updated to correct a NASA budget figure and to correct the year when a mission could potentially be carried out. We regret the error.

On Jan. 9, NASA announced a revised schedule to return humanity to the Moon, with the Artemis II lunar orbital mission now slated for no earlier than September 2025 and the Artemis III lunar surface mission no earlier than a year later in September 2026. 

It is important for NASA and the nation to continue to press for a lunar return as soon as feasible. What is still unclear, however, is when humans will journey to Mars. 

For decades, mission planners, advocates and policymakers have pointed to the year 2033 as an attractive window to launch the first such mission to the red planet. Indeed, former U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo), frequently advocated this date to his colleagues on Capitol Hill, producing “Mars by 2033” bumper stickers that were distributed at congressional hearings and conferences. 

2033 is not an arbitrary target. Due to orbital mechanics, it will require far less energy than is usually the case to propel a mission to Mars that year. While being able to achieve a human landing on Mars in 2033 is now highly unlikely, the unusually favorable 2033 launch window (that only occurs roughly every 15 years) should not be wasted. 

NASA and its partners should commit to a mission in 2033 that will take a solid step forward toward our goal of landing humans on Mars during the 2030s. 

The last time a favorable launch window was available was in 2018. In the years leading up to that opportunity, a Mars flyby concept called Inspiration Mars was proposed by Dennis Tito, who took the first private sector paid trip to outer space, and Taber MacCallum, an original Biosphere2 crew member and current and co-CEO of Space Perspectives. 

Inspiration Mars would have sent two crew members on a 500-day mission to test vital systems in advance of a human landing on the surface of Mars as well as to provide an inspiring intermediate step to engage the public. Unfortunately, the concept failed to garner sufficient support — and launch technology had not matured sufficiently at that time to succeed. 

Since then, NASA and its commercial and international partners have made significant progress toward the goal of returning humanity to the moon and then on to Mars. Nonetheless, while NASA has publicly stated its intention to land humans on Mars by 2039, even this later date is looking questionable based on current budgetary projections, which can stretch out projected milestone dates.

Perhaps the time has come for NASA, the Biden administration, Congress, industry, commercial entities and academia to work together to reexamine and determine whether a version of the Inspiration Mars concept would further NASA’s and the nation’s goals as an ambitious interim mission conducted in the 2033 timeframe. There is also a backup opportunity for a short-duration flyby mission to Mars and Venus in 2035. 

Such a mission could demonstrate and prove major systems required for human missions to Mars. It could also serve as a significant early milestone to captivate the public’s imagination and accelerate momentum for surface missions later that same decade.  

This is not a farfetched concept. Over the past several years, various major aerospace companies and other entities have proposed early orbital or flyby concepts. Meanwhile, public and private launch and crew capabilities have grown significantly. Unlike in 2018, we are now in a far better position to design, build and execute such a mission.  

A mission of this kind would be consistent with NASA’s commitment to “buy down risk” and would maximize existing capabilities that are already in development, extending the envelope of human exploration toward Mars. 

For example, if we accelerated the development of a Mars transit habitat, that component could potentially be placed in cislunar space in 5-7 years. This would provide ample time for shakedown missions to prove critical system capabilities before the 2033 departure window opens. 

Such an endeavor, however, will need to adhere to some specific requirements, safety and otherwise, to ensure that it is not just a stunt — and that ensures extensibility to follow-on missions. This includes proving out critical systems that will keep the crew healthy as well as help enable surface missions in the latter 2030s.  

Human factors will play a major role in this mission. The crew’s physical and mental health and overall well-being must be meticulously planned for and monitored. In addition to extensive physical and dietary preparation, crew members should also be provided with sufficient and compelling science goals, as well as a variety of leisure activities, social interactions and communication with loved ones back on Earth. 

To maximize public excitement and engagement, each crew member should arrange collaborations with partners back on Earth. This should not only include science experiments but also collaborations in the arts, music, literature, STEAM and innumerable other disciplines, enabling the entire world to participate and be emotionally involved and connected with the mission. 

Such a mission would unquestionably be challenging. In addition to the technical and human health hurdles, NASA would need a much clearer mandate from the administration and Congress. However, this may be exactly the type of endeavor needed in these challenging times. 

Human exploration of the moon and Mars enjoys a unique position in our polarized political environment. It is one of the few national policies that have sustained strong bipartisan support for years. In addition, the private sector is investing at unprecedented levels in space exploration systems. 

When one considers that NASA’s budget is less than half of 1 percent of the federal budget and that commercial entities are investing unprecedented funds of their own toward the development of space, we have a rare opportunity to help unite the country and at the same time, ensure that the United States and our partners remain at the forefront of exploration and space technology. 

Let’s use the 2033 opportunity to do something bold and inspiring, and to provide data that enables the first human landings on Mars starting later that decade. 

Chris Carberry is CEO of Explore Mars, Inc. and author of “Alcohol in Space” and the upcoming book, “The Music of Space.”