The United States is neglecting the long game. We can’t afford to be bogged down by annual budget fights or distracted by the drama of election cycles. Instead, we must consider the bigger picture. In an era of enduring strategic competition with China, remaining shortsighted and reactive will lead to failure.
Of all the areas that demand our attention in U.S.-China competition, outer space is uniquely important. Space has tremendous untapped economic potential and is becoming increasingly accessible. In the next five years, the global space economy is projected to grow to $800 billion.
Over the long term, the space economy is estimated to grow to $4 trillion during the 2040s and reach $10 trillion by 2050. Space may one day even host entire communities of people who permanently live and work outside of Earth’s atmosphere.
Many countries, companies and other stakeholders understand the importance of space. They also recognize the need to move quickly. The global shift to reusable launch vehicles, the on-going Moon rush and the surge of venture capital investments in space technology startups are all part of a global space expansion effort.
The Chinese Communist Party is already strategizing ways to influence and control future space activity. In 2017, China revealed its ambitions to become the dominant spacepower economically, militarily and politically by 2045. But China’s ambitions for space reach even further.
In September, China presented a comprehensive roadmap for developing an expansive space resource exploitation and logistics architecture through the year 2100. This architecture would be incrementally built to span much of the solar system, including the Moon, Mars, Jupiter’s moons and multiple asteroids. Through these nodes, China would sustain an ever-expanding footprint beyond Earth to solidify its hegemony in space.
For years, spacepower advocates, industry leaders and strategists have called upon the United States to produce its own grand strategy for space. Unless we want China unilaterally shaping humanity’s future in space, the U.S. will need its own national space development strategy.
The national space development strategy should have three basic components: a national vision for the future of space — the why; a 100-year roadmap — the what; and targeted implementation plans — the how.
A national space vision would explain in broad strokes why the U.S. should develop the space domain. It should reflect our nation’s values and promote our interests, both on Earth and in space. Moreover, the vision should serve as a source of inspiration and motivation for the American people.
The 100-year roadmap would articulate what the U.S. should do to make its space vision a reality. The roadmap would do this by defining priorities, articulating key concepts and providing high-level guidance and intent to government agencies and departments.
The roadmap would also establish a series of step-by-step national goals that progressively build upon each other to fuel even greater expansion. These goals should go out to the Moon, the rest of the solar system and all the way out to the nearest stars. Furthermore, the roadmap should be subject to periodic review. This would allow subject-matter experts to update and add goals according to future technological advances, shifting global trends and lessons learned from experiences.
Targeted implementation plans would address how agencies and departments should meet roadmap goals by directing them to tackle specific problem sets. The comprehensive development of space will require advances along multiple fronts, including space exploration, economic development, transportation, infrastructure, sustainability, security and defense, diplomacy, law, culture and habitation.
Each plan would define a set of short-term objectives within specific locations and areas of effort (e.g., a Mars infrastructure plan). In general, implementation plans should follow the SMART model (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time-based) and clearly establish which agencies and departments will be responsible and accountable for their completion.
It is important to recognize that successfully developing space will be a whole-of-society effort. The United States should move forward in collaboration with the full range of federal, state, tribal and local governments as well as commercial partners, academia, non-profit organizations and the international community.
America needs to play the long game in space — and it needs to start now.
Tyler D. Bates, MS, is a professional space concept developer, passionate spacepower advocate, and veteran of the United States Space Force and Air Force. The views expressed here are his alone.