Missing Titan submersible begs the question: Are the risks worth the rewards?

Risk is ubiquitous. Every movement, every activity, entails some measure of risk. We tolerate such risks because of the benefits offered by the activities.  

The submersible, Titan, that is now lost in the Atlantic Ocean shines a bright light on risk and how each person is confronted with decisions that must balance risks and benefits.

Titan lost contact with a research ship on Sunday morning and has not been heard from since. OceanGate Expeditions, the company that conducts the sub’s excursion to the site of the Titanic, which rests over two miles below sea level, charges $250,000 per passenger for the experience While each passenger must sign a waiver in the event of an accident or some other mishap, the company’s research focus and extended testing provides some assurance that risks have been considered and appropriately mitigated. They conducted several such dives in 2021 and 2022. In spite of such precautions, however, the vessel did not meet industry standards, posing risks to its occupants. These risks have now come to fruition.

Risk is something that most of us are ill-equipped to deal with. In fact, most people are notoriously bad at assessing personal risk. Almost everyone feels quite comfortable when they get into their SUV and drive five hours to their summer vacation destination. Yet, when getting onto an airplane, a sense of queasiness may overcome them. In reality, the trip by air is statistically far safer than the trip by automobile.  

The Titan expedition offers the benefit of an experience that few people will ever undertake. Taking a submersible over two miles under the sea to observe the Titanic, an iconic piece of history that sank 111 years ago, is unique and, for most, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. This represents a “bucket list” activity for those who have the financial means and the time to indulge.

This expedition falls into the same category as a trip into space, and to a lesser degree, an expedition to the Antarctic or, for the hardy mountain climber, scaling Mount Everest. With any event that entails a high level of risk, stuff happens. As much as preparations can be made to mitigate such risks, the biggest risks are not what can be prepared for but those no one can envision. Such unknown risks are present in all situations, with most exceedingly rare.

So why engage in activities that carry with them significant levels of unknown risks?

For some, the benefits gained exceed the risks. Whatever caused Titan to lose communication contact with the research ship was not something that was likely foreseen. If it was, then the incident could have been prepared for, and OceanGate Expeditions would be planning its next excursion. Instead, a massive search is underway to locate Titan and rescue its passengers.

Given that the rescue crews know where Titan entered the ocean, where it was around 105 minutes into its dive, and where the Titanic rests on the floor of the ocean, logic suggests that there is a limited volume of ocean over which the vessel could be. Even given the number of rescuers deployed, including many from both the United States and Canadian Coast Guards, and the technologies being used, the search has come up empty so far. Up until Tuesday afternoon, over 7,600 square miles of area had been searched, with nothing found.

Though everyone would like to be optimistic, the likelihood that Titan will be found before oxygen runs out for the people on the vessel is small, and shrinking with each passing hour. This highlights how much risk each person took when they bought their ticket for the expedition, even if they were not fully cognizant of what they were agreeing to.

The next hours will be critical. Much like how the Challenger and Columbia space shuttle incidents resulted in pauses to root out the cause of such events, Titan will provide deep sea researchers opportunities to explore why a deep sea vessel failed, how the vessel measured against industry standards, and what can be done to ensure that such an accident does not occur again.

Risks are ubiquitous. Risks can also be managed, provided we are aware of them. Yet even with the best preparations and precautions, the worst case may still occur, particularly when it comes to unknown risks.

Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a founder professor in computer science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. A data scientist, he applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy and public health. He is a native of Montreal.