Russia’s intentions towards Ukraine and the West are based on intimidation, a tactic as old as history and one practiced by tsars, Lenin, the Bolsheviks and since. While no agreement has been reached in the West as to where this crisis is headed and whether or how it will be resolved, no one has proposed a strategy for attacking and countering Vladimir Putin’s use of intimidation. One way is to ask how Putin might be “shocked and awed” in reverse.
As the principal author of “shock and awe” 25 years ago, the misuse of the concept in the second Iraq War was frustrating. The original thrust was “to affect, influence and ultimately control the will and perception of an adversary.” Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld put this in simpler language.
“In other words,” he said, “the idea is to get the other guy to do what you want or to stop doing what you don’t want.” In the 2002-03 build up to Operation Iraqi Freedom, Rumsfeld suggested to Army General Tommy Franks, the overall commander, to look at “shock and awe.” As Franks failed to plan for the post-war, he saw “shock and awe” only as a slogan. The day the campaign began, Britain’s Daily Telegraph ran a quarter-page headline reading “Baghdad Blitz” over a photo of bombs exploding on Iraq’s capital as part of “shock and awe.”
This was ironic. The idea behind “shock and awe was” to win without fighting or with minimal use of force. The question is whether “shock and awe” can be used successfully to counter Putin’s intimidation strategy and whether it can affect, influence and possibly control Putin’s next responses to the current situation.
The two “treaties” Moscow offered to relieve the crisis are filled with unacceptable demands. Putin knows that. But Putin wants respect. He also wants protection from further NATO encroachment on Russia as he sees it. He also wants more influence on border states that were once part of the USSR. And Ukraine is the lever and means he is using, along with the threats of military action and the possibility of closing energy supplies to Europe, to pressure the West.
Here are five ways “shock and awe” might be applied. First, tone is important. The West must be cool and calm and not show an iota of weakness.
Second, as Russian negotiations with the U.S., NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe get underway this week, instead of succumbing to the notion of Putin forcing these meetings at virtual gunpoint, take the opposite tack. Negotiations are an opportunity for the West to impose a new security framework in Europe that is in its best interests.
Third, the U.S. and NATO should argue, in almost sorrowful tones (and that is important) that if negotiations fail, the only option will be exactly what Putin does not want: the expansion of NATO to contain Russian ambitions. Finland and Sweden could be candidates. And discussions with Georgia and Ukraine, based on NATO’s 2008 Bucharest Summit statement of record about membership, will be forthcoming.
Fourth, Putin must be continuously reminded of the Afghan War that drained the Soviet Union. War game estimates of tens of thousands of Russian dead and wounded should be released from a variety of sources that examined the costs of an invasion. Influence operations, disinformation and misinformation should be used. For example, reports of Russian companies unable to fulfill orders for body bags may sound simplistic. But amplified on social media, this could become a powerful influence.
Fifth, contingency plans for a Russian invasion of Ukraine should be made public in general terms. Indeed, the cynical suggestion that an invasion would lead to Russia’s isolation and potential collapse, as befell the Soviet Union after Afghanistan, would likewise contribute to this information campaign.
Will this work? Or will a counter intimidation strategy of “shock and awe” lead to needless escalation? At this point, because it is unclear exactly what the strategy and counter proposals of the U.S., NATO and the West are, other options must be considered. Time is the enemy. So are the many crises confronting the White House, from omicron, inflation and post-Jan. 6 fall out to failure to pass Build Back Better and voting rights legislation. All compete for attention with Putin and Ukraine.
Perhaps shock and awe’s time has come. That possibility should be explored now.
Harlan Ullman, Ph.D, is senior adviser at the Atlantic Council and the primary author of “shock and awe.” His latest book is, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and that World at Large.”