To counter China, the US must upgrade missile defense in Guam

The nation’s attention has understandably been focused on the unfolding events in Afghanistan and the urgent efforts to evacuate Americans and Afghans who supported the war effort. Even as Washington manages the urgent Afghanistan crisis, however, it must simultaneously address more important, longer-term challenges, including deterring Chinese military aggression in the Indo-Pacific. This is why Congress should fully reinstate funding for air and missile defenses in Guam when it reconvenes in early September.

The United States’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan will no doubt have important implications for America’s global standing, but none of the potential negative consequences are as serious as the threat posed by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). China’s rapid military buildup has shifted the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific calling into question the ability of the United States to defend long standing allies and partners in the region, including Taiwan. Beijing has made it clear that it will not rule out the use of military force to reclaim Taiwan, which it sees as a renegade province. The former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Phil Davidson, testified before Congress earlier this year that he believes China will try to take Taiwan “in the next six years.”

Moreover, China is developing a military strategy and capabilities designed to do just that. The PLA hopes to push American military forces out of the Indo-Pacific, giving Beijing a freer hand to engage in armed aggression against its neighbors. U.S. regional military presence is concentrated at several, large military bases, including in Japan, South Korea and the U.S. territory of Guam. China would likely attempt to degrade U.S. military capabilities at these locations in the early stages of any conflict by overwhelming them with a broad range of missile attacks — including ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles. A successful missile attack would greatly blunt American military power in the region and complicate the U.S. ability to deny a Chinese victory over Taiwan.

The Department of Defense needs the ability, therefore, to defend these bases in the event of conflict. More importantly, effective defenses can help to deter China from attempting an attack in the first place. After all, if Chinese leaders believe the attack might fail or face insurmountable obstacles, then they will be less likely to try.

This is why regional missile defenses are a critical piece of U.S. defense strategy in the region. Many critics argue that missile defenses do not work, but they are working with outdated information. Theater missile defenses have greatly improved in recent years, as demonstrated by Israel’s Iron Dome in the war with Hamas earlier this year. In tests, U.S. missile defense systems have successfully intercepted more than 70 percent of incoming missiles. These capabilities can go a long way to defending against — and deterring — a Chinese missile attack.

Fortunately, South Korea and Japan have fairly robust missile defense systems already in place, but Guam’s defenses need a substantial upgrade beyond the limited assets already there. Moreover, Guam is a U.S. territory. Defending Guam and its airfield protects American citizens and the U.S. homeland while it contributes to U.S. regional defense strategy.

It is for these reasons that Davidson and his successor, Adm. John Aquilino, have made 360-degree air and missile defenses for Guam the command’s highest priority.

To meet this urgent need, the president’s budget requested $40 million for procurement and $78.3 million for research and development for a missile defense system in Guam. In addition, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has sent Congress a related list of $231 million in unfunded requirements.

Unfortunately, when House appropriators met for the defense bill’s markup this summer, they zeroed out procurement and significantly reduced research and development funding for missile defenses in Guam. This was a mistake. Moreover, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s unfunded requirements remain just that, unfunded.

Fortunately, there is time for a correction. The House Armed Services Committee will meet on Sept. 1 to begin their markup of the defense bill. Appropriators in the House and Senate will also have time to restore funding in the final bill. When they meet, they should fully reinstate funding for missile defenses in Guam.

America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan has dealt a blow to American credibility, but losing a war to China would be even more devastating. Washington cannot take the chance. It must ensure it has the capabilities needed to defend itself, its allies and its forces from the growing Chinese military threat.

Matthew Kroenig is a professor of government at Georgetown University and director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Strategy Initiative. He was a special government employee and senior policy adviser on nuclear and missile defense policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2017-2021.