Biden still paralyzed as the Middle East counts down to Armageddon

Hezbollah is dangerously nearing a point of no return in its ongoing cross-border war with Israel. And as Israel threatens a full-scale response, the Biden administration continues to chase its own tail across the entire Middle East.

Since the attack against Israel on Oct. 7., near-daily exchanges of rocket, artillery and drone attacks have killed more than 22 Israelis and displaced 60,000 civilians from northern Israel. Multiple forest fires across Galilee have also been caused by Hezbollah rockets.

The economic toll in Israel is significant. In addition to property damage, agricultural and tourism industries have been hit particularly hard. Overall, the Bank of Israel has calculated that the displacement of 144,000 Israelis in the north and south of the country have cost the Israeli economy $158 million a week. Something has to give. 

Thus far, it is not the White House. Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security advisor, continues to pursue losing strategies. 

We are on an Armageddon-like countdown in the Middle East, and the overall situation is fast devolving. Yet Biden is unable to stop the Doomsday Clock, let alone get ahead of the curve strategically.

Iran is drawing ever-nearer to producing and fielding nuclear weapons and is now, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, “defying” the White House by “feeding uranium cascades of advanced IR-4 and IR-6 centrifuges at its Natanz enrichment facility.” Yes, it is that Natanz facility — the one where Israel struck an air defense battery on April 19 at the dual use airbase/international airfield in Isfahan.

Significantly, if and when Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei chooses, Tehran’s nuclear breakout can be achieved in a matter of days — not weeks or months. Alarmingly, Iran now has the capability of going from zero to 13 bombs in seven days.

Washington remains paralyzed. Biden’s insistence on avoiding regional escalation is ironically, in practice, causing escalation. The situation is overtaxing U.S. military assets and personnel stationed in the region while adversely affecting strategic force deployments elsewhere.

Over the last seven months, Houthi rebels were able to battle the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower to a standoff in the Red Sea. Now, the exhausted carrier group has transited into the eastern Mediterranean and is preparing to return to the U.S. after the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives from the Pacific as its replacement. 

The State Department is flailing, too. Having chased a cease-fire with Hamas to help bring an end to the war in Gaza, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is learning the hard way that he is being outplayed by Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh and Khamenei — and all to the benefit of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who profits from a distracted White House. 

None of them are interested in peace. To the contrary, they are all, on a rapidly coalescing basis, at war with the West. Attacking Israel is a means to an end of weakening the U.S. and expanding the playing board.

It is time for the White House to wake up. The clock is ticking, and the Biden administration seemingly has no answers.

Israel may soon force the issue. Jerusalem sees Hezbollah and Iran as existential threats. It could pause its war against Hamas to focus militarily on confronting both and mitigating them as needed. 

Lost in the debate about a cease-fire in Gaza is the reality that, ever since Oct 7., Israel lost strategic deterrence in the Middle East. Not only did Hamas conduct a cross-border raid, but Iran for the first time launched a direct aerial attack into Israel on April 13. Hezbollah’s kinetic attacks on northern Israel have been occurring on an unprecedented scale.

Destroying Hamas in Gaza was step one in reestablishing Israel’s strategic deterrence. Hitting Tehran’s military base guarding its nuclear facility at Natanz was step two. Thus far, Israel’s sustained campaign to eliminate top Hezbollah commanders has not been sufficient to reestablish strategic deterrence in Lebanon. 

It will not be easy to cow Hezbollah. Iran’s number one proxy is considerably more powerful than Hamas. Its offensive military capabilities are far more advanced. Strategically, Hezbollah is also exponentially more valuable to Tehran as a military check on Israel.

Iran has, in the past, threatened to destroy Haifa and Tel Aviv if Jerusalem launches a full-scale attack on Hezbollah. While the IDF’s successful defense against Iran’s drone and missile attack on April 13 has mitigated much of that concern, Hezbollah could nonetheless inflict significant damage to critical Israeli infrastructure and military installations and potentially cause devastating civilian casualties.

Israelis, by a vast margin, appear willing to take the chance. According to a report in the Jerusalem Post, 62 percent of Jewish Israelis support an attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon with “full force.”

Blinken, for now, continues to underplay the possibility of an all-out conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Speaking at a NATO summit earlier this month, he said “No one wants escalation.” He then added, “I don’t believe Israel does. I don’t believe Hizballah does. Lebanon certainly doesn’t, because it would suffer the most. I don’t believe that Iran does.”

The Pentagon, stretched thin by Biden’s tail-chasing Middle East strategy, is also warning Israel not to become embroiled in a wider war with Hezbollah. On Sunday, Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, cautioned Israel that Khamenei “would be more inclined to support Hezbollah” than Hamas. 

According to an AP report, Brown also warned Jerusalem that “the U.S. won’t likely be able to help Israel defend itself against a broader Hezbollah war as well as it helped Israel fight off an Iranian barrage of missiles and drones in April.” Brown also indicated “the U.S. continues to talk with Israeli leaders and warn against widening the conflict.”

It does not help that the USS Gerald R. Ford was ordered back to the U.S. in January. Nor does Biden’s intentional slow-walking of constriction of weapons shipments to Israel.

Escalation paralysis continues to dominate Biden’s White House, his State Department and now his Pentagon. 

Tehran, however, is not paralyzed. Nor is Hezbollah. Khamenei’s Armageddon-like countdown in the Mideast at Biden’s expense continues. And as that atomic clock ticks faster and faster, keep in mind that Israel will not let it reach zero. 

Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014.