Iran has crossed the Rubicon. Will Israel?

Tehran on Saturday did the unexpected: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime directly attacked Israel with a large-scale volley of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles fired from Iranian soil.

Khamenei has crossed the Rubicon, and in the most ironic of ways.

In avenging the Israel Defense Forces killing of Quds Force commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus on April 1, Iran targeted Jerusalem itself, in addition to sites in northern, central and southern Israel.

Quds Force references the Arabic name for Jerusalem, translating to “Jerusalem Force.” It was organized to help “liberate” Jerusalem.

In perhaps the most gripping video Saturday evening, Iranian drones were captured exploding high above the Dome of the Rock in the night skies of Jerusalem after being intercepted by the IDF. So now, acting as the military intelligence and unconventional warfare wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Jerusalem Force participated in attacking the Holy City.

Tehran’s diplomatic mission to the United Nations released a statement while the Iranian attacks were still ongoing, citing Article 51 of the UN Charter as justification for the strikes and that “the matter can [now] be deemed concluded.” The statement also told the U.S. in caps to “stay away [from Iran].”

But Israel, after absorbing upwards of 300 Iranian strikes spreading the length of the nation, is unlikely to deem the matter closed. Indeed, quite the opposite — Israel is now very likely to cross the Rubicon as well and directly attack Iran in response.

This conflict is only beginning, and the U.S. cannot stay out of it completely. We are already in it, at least defensively. U.S. military forces stationed in Iraq, Syria and Jordan actively helped interdict Iranian drones, cruise and ballistic missiles. U.S. land, sea, air, space and cyber intelligence assets played a critical role in tracking, targeting and destroying Iran’s aerial armada — in many cases before its unmanned craft reached the borders of Israel.

What Israel must now do is re-establish deterrence. Many military and national security analysts, in the hours after the attack, expressed surprise about its lack of proportionality. 

We are now beyond proportionality. If Israel merely responds in kind or settles on a Kabuki theater-style bloodless reprisal, Iran will have learned nothing. It will establish a new unacceptable green-light to attack Israel.

Strategically, Jerusalem simply cannot afford for that scenario to unfold, so it cannot allow it either, especially since Khamenei has or is nearing nuclear weapons capabilities to counter Israel’s considerable stores of nukes. This time, it was simply a conventional attack, but next time it could conceivably be an Iranian nuclear attack.

Doing nothing, therefore, could create a dangerous new normal. Israel’s retaliation is therefore likely to be harsh and far-reaching in its design and desired end goals. 

One potential Israeli military move would be to target Iran’s nuclear weapons program. That would require a sustained attack, given that there are 38 known sites across Iran, a vast country only slightly smaller than Alaska.

Other targets might include Iran’s oil industry, drone and missile production plants, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control assets, air defenses and even, potentially, Khamenei himself and his ruling regime and military leadership. 

It could also be some or all of the above.

Regardless of what form it takes, Israel’s response is likely to be loud, highly visible and delivered with sufficient shock and awe so as to attempt to embarrass, if not destabilize, Khamenei and his government. And, as Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz indicated, at a time of its own choosing.

Notably, Saturday night, the White House did not publicly call for Israeli military restraint. Yet it was readily evident that the Biden administration is hopeful that Israel will avoid going up the escalation ladder. To that end, according to CNN, a senior official said Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he should consider Israel’s successful defense against Iran’s attack as “a win.” 

Yet even though Biden issued a statement calling its commitment to Israel’s security “ironclad,” the White House also made it clear to Netanyahu that the U.S. is unwilling to go up the escalation ladder when it comes to any forthcoming Israeli retaliation against Tehran. Israel, if it attacks Iran, Jerusalem will have to go it alone.

Biden remains in the business of primarily helping allies defend themselves. Helping them soundly defeat and eliminate the threats they face? Not so much.

The U.S. and its allies cannot continue going down this self-defeating, dead-end path. As evidenced in Ukraine and again vis-à-vis Israel and Iran, the West is being engulfed in a third world war, and it is time Washington started acting like it. 

Paradoxically, the White House, in seeking to avoid kinetic escalation, is actually creating escalation that is becoming progressively more dangerous and widespread.

Mere defense is no longer tenable, a recipe for creating “forever wars” that further destabilize an already-fractured global order. Escalating to deescalate may be the only way out of this largely White House-created conundrum. 

That means leaning into winning a decisive victory in Ukraine and ensuring that Israel also wins decisively against Hamas and Iran. Anything less will be essentially asking for more of the same from our country’s enemies. 

Iran opted to be unpredictable on Saturday. Yes, they telegraphed it. Yes, it had elements of Kabuki theater. Nonetheless, Tehran forced an inflection point upon Washington and Jerusalem, and how each continues to react will decide whether this turns into a full-scale war, or whether the Temple Mount becomes ground zero of yet another “forever war.”

Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer.