America is entering perhaps the most dangerous period in the last century and a half of its existence.
It confronts mounting external threats from a coalition of proclaimed enemies of the United States and the West: Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and their associated proxies and terrorist groups. With a common declared enemy, they increasingly coordinate their hostile actions to divert Washington’s attention and complicate its response.
The international order, created by the West under the leadership of the U.S. in the aftermath of World War II, is under concerted attack. Just before Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued a joint statement declaring a “no limits strategic partnership” to replace the hegemony of America and its allies and to rebut the presumption that Western values are “universal.”
On the matter of governance, for example, Xi and Putin, the sole arbiters of events within their own countries, declared that “It is only up to the people of the country to decide whether their State is a democratic one.” They, of course, have arrogated to themselves the exclusive right to speak for “the people.”
They also endorsed each other’s aggressive regional ambitions. Xi has blamed NATO for provoking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Putin has supported China’s claims on Taiwan. Yet both Ukraine and Taiwan fall under a U.S. security umbrella, albeit short of a mutual defense treaty.
Iran, the third major actor in the assault on Western values and interests, labels the United States as “the Great Satan” and Israel as “Little Satan” and vows the destruction of both. While it is not yet in possession of nuclear weapons to challenge America and Israel directly, it maintains minimal plausible deniability by launching its provocations and attacks through regional proxies and terrorist groups, like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. To avoid direct confrontation with Iran, Washington and the West are willing to indulge the barely disguised subterfuge — including 150 Houthi attacks on Western shipping in the Red Sea.
The deadly weekend attack on U.S. forces in Jordan demonstrated the tragic failure of Biden’s deterrent message to Iran and its proxies not to take advantage of the Israel-Hamas conflict by making further mischief in the Mideast. His warning — “Don’t, don’t, don’t” — proved as futile with Teheran as his warning to Putin in early 2022 not to attempt more than “a limited incursion” of Ukraine.
Enter North Korea, which, with China’s financial and technological support and diplomatic protection, has developed its own nuclear weapons program and the missiles to deliver them against South Korea, Japan and even the United States.
Behind that nuclear shield, Pyongyang has increased its bellicose rhetoric and actions against the Seoul government. Last week, Kim Jong Un declared that peaceful unification of the two Koreas is no longer a feasible goal and issued a virtual fresh declaration of war against the South by declaring it the “number one hostile state.”
Unlike its junior communist ally, China denies that Taiwan is a separate state, but ends in the same place, threatening to attack Taiwan if “possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted.” Xi may well have concluded that is now the case, after the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party just won an unprecedented third election despite Beijing’s warning that Taiwan’s voters could choose “war or peace.”
It is now a question of whether Kim or Xi will be the first to strike.
In 1950, both Mao Zedong and Kim Il Sung were poised to attack Taiwan and South Korea, respectively, but Kim beat Mao to the punch and President Harry Truman sent the Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait to prevent war there.
Now it is American voters who must make a fateful choice on who should lead them, in a time not only of international peril but of deep partisan and social divisions that in some ways recall the bitter Vietnam War period and, according to some, the American Civil War itself.
President Biden, who seems to have a paralyzing fear of escalation, could end up stumbling into the very war he urgently seeks to avoid in Ukraine and the Middle East. By seeming to speak loudly about defending Taiwan but then allowing his staff and Cabinet to dilute his message, and failing to provide Taiwan with all the weapons it needs to deter and defeat Chinese aggression, he invites a major miscalculation by Beijing, which sees his hesitant support for Ukraine.
Former President Trump, on the other hand, would temporarily defer conflict over the next four years, by sacrificing both Ukraine — “I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours” — and Taiwan — “they took our business away.” Even out of office, Trump is jeopardizing Ukraine’s security and that of Israel and Taiwan by urging his allies in Congress to block the compromise funding package that would provide the border security Republicans have been demanding.
Based on their prior experience with Biden and Trump, Russia and China are confident they could manage either of them to the dictators’ advantage. It is the third person in the race, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, that they know the least — and what little they do know they don’t like. America needs a commander in chief that keeps our adversaries uncomfortable and restrained: the key to preventing strategic miscalculation.
Joseph Bosco served as China country director for the secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006 and as Asia-Pacific director of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from 2009 to 2010. He served in the Pentagon when Vladimir Putin invaded Georgia and was involved in Department of Defense discussions about the U.S. response. Follow him on Twitter @BoscoJosephA.