It is only with the benefit of hindsight that we can now see how Europe stumbled, half asleep, into World War I. At the time, no one could predict how a localized regional conflict would spark what was then the most devastating conflict in human history.
Now, slightly more than a century later, it is the U.S. that is sleepwalking towards a full-blown world war, as the risks of a regional war metastasizing into a wider war continue to rise exponentially.
Put another way, more than three months after Hamas invaded Israel, killed approximately 1,200 people and abducted more than 200 hostages, leading to an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza, the world is sitting on the precipice of another world war.
To that end, if we are to avoid such a catastrophic scenario, the United States must not only be clear-eyed about the growing risks but also who our enemies are and their intentions. Above all else, we must be resolute in our determination to prevent the conflict between Israel and Hamas from spreading further than it already has.
After the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas, President Biden made it clear that he had two priorities: Keep the fighting contained to Gaza, and deter Iran from taking advantage of the chaos, either by attacking Israel directly or unleashing its Hezbollah and Houthi proxies to attack Israeli or American targets.
To accomplish his goals, Biden — admirably — ordered the largest show of force in support of Israel since 1973, sending two aircraft carrier strike groups to the region and issuing a strongly-worded warning to Iran and Hezbollah not to intervene.
Unfortunately, Biden’s efforts failed on both fronts, as the fighting has spread from Gaza to the Red Sea, Yemen, Iraq and Syria, with American troops coming under attack in the latter two countries.
Moreover, Iran is clearly undeterred, feeling little pressure to rein in its proxies.
Hezbollah has conducted near-daily rocket and missile attacks against Israel, and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, felt emboldened enough to threaten the U.S., saying in a regional war that “[U.S.] interests and soldiers will be the victim,” adding assurances that American “ships and air force will pay a heavy price.”
Another Iranian proxy, the Houthi Rebels in Yemen, have targeted American and allied naval ships, along with merchant cargo ships, effectively shutting the Red Sea, which 10-15 percent of world commerce depends on.
Biden’s failure to deter Iran — the architect of virtually all of the conflict in the region — has now led to direct American involvement and increasingly, the risk of widening the war in the Middle East.
With American planes and ships now conducting hundreds of airstrikes throughout Yemen, any incident could be the spark that sets off a global war, pulling in Iran and potentially its Russian ally.
To be absolutely clear, this is not to say Biden should preemptively attack Iran to deter the regime. However, it is to say that there is a seeming absence of both understanding the risks of an expanded war, as well as a strategy to avoid one.
As we wrote in these pages just weeks ago, “Without a strong, robust show of force against Iran and its terrorist allies, the risks of an all-out war increase significantly.” Those risks will only continue to rise as long as Iran, the head of this snake, feels it has a free hand to sow chaos without even the credible threat of a crushing American response.
In that same vein, if it is true, as Joe Buccino — former U.S. Central Command spokesman — has said, that CENTCOM has submitted potential targets to strike that would “really inflict pain” and “send a message” to Iran, but have been rebuffed by the White House, Biden would surely be neglecting his responsibility to protect America’s national security in favor of avoiding escalation at all costs — a policy destined to fail.
Also worth noting, Biden’s about-face on Israel, at least publicly, surely contributes to Iran’s calculations that the U.S. will not defend the Jewish State for much longer. While Biden initially offered full-throated support for Israel’s military efforts against Hamas, the administration has begun changing its tune, likely in response to pressure on Biden from the left wing of his party.
Indeed, Washington has been openly feuding with Israel in recent weeks, including calling on Jerusalem to allow more aid into Gaza, criticizing how Israel is fighting the war and pushing Israel to accept a Palestinian state when the war ends, a non-starter for Israel with Oct. 7 still seared into the country’s collective memory.
Whether for political reasons — war would surely cause the price of oil to spike in an election year, and Biden’s eroding support from the left over his approach to Israel — or the seemingly limitless desire of Biden to reach a diplomatic accord with Iran, the administration has failed to hold Iran accountable for its proxies, resulting in the dangerous scenario we now face.
In many ways, the position President Biden finds himself in is unnervingly similar to that of President Nixon in 1973. Then, like now, Arab forces had taken Israel by surprise, and concerns of outside intervention led Nixon to put U.S. nuclear forces on high alert, bringing the world disturbingly close to nuclear Armageddon.
Moscow’s realization that the United States was ready to use the full force of the American military to defend our ally Israel, played a critical role in both ending the war and ensuring that despite the threats, nuclear weapons would not be used.
Fifty years later, the Soviet Union has been replaced by an Iranian-led bloc of terrorist groups and rogue states, and with it, their messianic, ideological commitment to destroying Israel and America. If we are to frustrate their plans and avoid being drawn into a war that the U.S. surely does not want, we can not afford to appear afraid to confront our enemies.
Ultimately, the fear of a direct clash with the United States is the only thing that will force Iran to stand down, and thus lower the risks of the current war between Israel and Hamas spiraling into a wider war that engulfs the entire globe.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.” Saul Mangel is a senior strategist at Schoen Cooperman Research.