As the war between Israel and Hamas continues, the threat posed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels looms large, with risks not just to international shipping but also to global peace and security.
And as recent reporting by the Wall Street Journal (which has now been confirmed by the White House) reveals, Iran’s direct involvement aiding the Houthis – providing weapons and targeting assistance – means the United States and President Biden must take a tougher stance against both the Houthis and their masters in Tehran if the U.S. hopes to stabilize the region.
The establishment of an international naval task force to protect ships transiting the Red Sea is a start but will ultimately matter little if the U.S. military is shackled by political concerns over the chances of a direct confrontation with Iran, the mastermind behind much of the chaos gripping the Middle East.
Indeed, from the outset of Israel’s war against Hamas – which began when Hamas invaded Israel, slaughtered 1,200 Israelis and took roughly 240 hostages – Iran has unleashed its proxies in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, Iraq and Yemen against American and Israeli targets.
Unfortunately, the U.S. has often failed to respond, or done so only symbolically, with airstrikes on targets with little to no military value, to avoid fueling a wider war in the region.
In that same vein, the ever-present risk of a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah continues to grow. And should that erupt, the scale of destruction in the Middle East would be unprecedented, given Hezbollah’s considerable arsenal and Israel’s determination to permanently end the threat to their northern border.
To be clear, this is not to argue for the start of a new war between the U.S. and Iran or its proxies, but rather to point out that without a strong, robust show of force against Iran and its terrorist allies, the risks of an all-out war increase significantly.
Moreover, the Biden administration must realize that their hopes of reaching a diplomatic accord with Iran are all but dead, leaving only one remaining option to rollback Iran’s malign influence short of war: the credible threat of an overwhelming military response.
The costs of allowing the Houthis to act without fear of consequences are already being realized. After multiple cargo ships were struck by Houthi rockets, the world’s major shipping companies have announced they will divert cargo away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal routes in favor of the much-longer trip around the Horn of Africa, which will raise costs and further fuel inflation.
Further, and more importantly, allowing Iranian-backed terrorist groups to act with impunity directly threatens the thousands of American soldiers based in Iraq and Syria who have come under dozens of rocket and missile attacks since the war between Israel and Hamas began.
There are also invisible, but arguably more important, costs: The loss of America’s deterrence is not tangible, but it is more dangerous than increased prices. The Biden administration has now overseen the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and failed to stop Russia’s war against Ukraine. And now our adversaries – both nation states and terrorist groups – feel they can threaten the U.S. and our allies with impunity.
At the head of this snake is Iran, which has long viewed its support for terrorist groups stretching from Lebanon to Yemen as a strategic priority – a way to attack Israel and the U.S. with plausible deniability – including reportedly training Hamas members just weeks before their Oct. 7 attack.
Iran has funded, trained and armed these groups. But it is highly unlikely that Tehran would be willing to risk letting these groups drag it into a direct military clash against the United States — a risk that Biden must make the mullahs understand is closer than Tehran may feel comfortable with.
For now, the evidence is overwhelmingly clear: The Iranian regime feels it can threaten the U.S. and Israel, and even attack American troops without fear of reprisal from a White House fearful of igniting a war in an election year.
Biden’s fear of a wider war is also handcuffing Israel, which would prefer to respond to Houthi drone and rocket attacks against the southern Israeli city of Eilat but is being held back by the White House, which has told Israel the U.S. will handle the threat.
Immediately after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, Biden admirably dispatched two aircraft carriers to the Middle East as a show of force, and a warning to Iran, Hezbollah and other terrorist groups not to intervene. But the warning was not taken seriously. If it had been, rebels armed with little aside from cheap drones and Iranian rockets would not feel empowered to declare sovereignty over one of the world’s most important waterways.
To be sure, the Houthis present the kind of asymmetric threat that the U.S. military often struggles to confront. But that is no excuse for surrendering to them and Iran without so much as a threat of retaliation.
There are domestic political considerations as well. Diplomatic outreach to Tehran had been a core component of Biden’s foreign policy agenda (which just 35 percent of Americans approve of, per Quinnipiac polling), and America’s inability to present a credible military threat against Tehran will only harm perceptions of Biden’s handling of America’s foreign policy.
This is not to argue that the U.S. should preemptively attack Iran, Hezbollah or the Houthis. However, throughout history, when the United States has failed to take a tough stance against actors that seek to threaten global security, we are forced to act eventually, often from a much weaker position.
With the lessons of history in mind, if President Biden wants to avoid a wider war, he must make it abundantly clear to Tehran that unless it reins in its terrorist proxies, the full force of the United States military is ready to defend the values of peace and security throughout the entire Middle East.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.” Saul Mangel is a senior strategist at Schoen Cooperman Research.