It’s not too late to defeat Vladimir Putin — but we must act now

Vladimir Putin’s unwavering faith in the supremacy of autocracy is not baseless: Two years into his Ukraine war, having lost more than 200,000 Russian soldiers in a quagmire that would be disastrous for any democratic leader, Putin sees the collective West receding from its once strong support of Ukraine. Rather than having buckled to the world’s initial, emotional outrage to his full-scale invasion, Putin has taken a page from the Playbook of America’s Enemies: Give it time, and the West will fold.  

Putin is now signaling that he has devised further, post-Ukraine plans for global destruction. We should not lose time in ending the Putin regime before it is too late. 

Failing to take Ukraine in 2014, Putin relaunched his efforts in 2022, and last week foreshadowed that “Odessa [Ukraine] is a Russian city.” Taking Odessa would be the last stop before the Russian train of terror dives deeper into Europe, into Moldova, a mere 31 miles away. Moldova, like Ukraine, is not a member of NATO: The poorest country in Europe, with a military of less than 7,000 men, would quickly be overrun by Russian troops.  

We should not dismiss as hyperbolic Putin’s promise of “problems for Finland” for having joined NATO and the ire he feels toward the Baltic states, which have been energetic cheerleaders for Ukraine: Putin has already decided they need not exist. 

The Baltic States’s military strategy, should the Russian Bear arrive, is to essentially break into partisan units, holding off Russia for a few weeks until NATO arrives. NATO’s Article 5 dictates that countries must assist the attacked member-nation. However, a reinvigorated, NATO-skeptic President Trump, if reelected, could use America’s vote to veto the use of Article 5. 

Putin may not start-off with the full-scale invasion of another European country, as Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said: Moscow has plenty of strings to pull in the Balkan tinderbox.  

The autocracies of the world are rejoicing at the debacle of America toying with support for Ukraine, giving the wrong signal to other bad actors: China’s lust for Taiwan is well-known; Venezuela is headed toward the conquest of Guyana; Iran is backing terrorists who attack foreign vessels and wage war in Israel. The U.S. flicks its wrist to slow the attackers but does not leave a bruise. The global tyrannies look to Moscow and see that the protagonist of the dictatorial narrative, Putin, was right all along: Just be patient, persevere, exhaust the West, then do as you please.  

Russia, like its most intimate allies, is under crushing sanctions — something that Moscow has in common with illegal non-state actor allies such as drug cartels or Islamic terrorists. Putin, championing de-dollarization and the abandonment of the West’s financial mechanisms, hopes to provide a parallel means to do business for those who oppose the international rules-based-order. The very global system that the West built over hundreds of years is being fundamentally challenged by rogues that see how easily distracted the West has become. 

The good news? The global cabal of autocracies, narcos and terrorists has only one ringmaster: Russia’s Putin. If Putin, the lynchpin, is removed, the global network will be disordered. 

The West should strongly back those seeking to build a Putin-less world, starting with Russia’s democratic opposition. Facing troubles on the home front, Putin will not waste time in re-evaluating his priorities to prevent his own downfall. To suppress internal chaos, Putin would need to import Russian troops, now engaged abroad, across Russia so he could prevent counterrevolutions or the break-up of the Federation. Given a choice of entertaining fantasies of expanding Russia, or serving their self-interest, such as avoiding being toppled, Russian leaders are predictable.  

A “hardline” leader seizing the Kremlin post-Putin is improbable: Usurpers who come to power, without a plausible narrative justifying their claim to power, need to gain legitimacy, part of which comes from possessing the world’s largest nuclear stockpile while fighting-off challengers vying for the keys of the Kremlin, which would require Russia’s troops to be in Moscow.  

It’s time to force Russia to focus on its domestic situation, rather than steering Europe toward new catastrophes. More broadly, to stop the advance of dictatorships abroad, we must remove the keystone regime that is holding together and propelling their global expansion. 

Jason Smart, Ph.D., is a political adviser and special correspondent for Kyiv Post.