Venezuela’s dictator seeks to launch a Putin-style war against Guyana

Not satisfied with the accusations of drug trafficking, terrorism, ecocide and crimes against humanity, Nicolás Maduro seeks to add new trophies to his list. He now wants to carry out a war of aggression against the small neighboring country of Guyana.

On December 3, Maduro repeated the Russian formula that had claimed the illegal annexation of four regions of Ukraine via a controversial referendum in September 2022. Venezuela’s regime likewise staged a referendum on whether to take over Guyana’s Essequibo region — a cowardly strategy by Maduro to hide his failures and unpopularity.

While Guyana clings to the so-called Paris Arbitral Award of 1899, Venezuela defends the Geneva agreement of 1966. This would not be too different from territorial disputes among other countries in the region, except that Venezuela’n’s tyranny wants to resolve the dispute with the power of bullets and not by respecting international law.

Maduro’s real motive is to get rid of the hangover caused by opposition candidate María Corina Machado’s dominating performance in the primary election. In order to distract and make the public forget this landslide, the tyrant now invokes Chávez and calls for patriotism with this out-of-the-blue territorial ambition. Maduro, whom the Venezuelan people loathe, has little choice but to resurrect the less unpopular Chávez.

Maduro, as he makes threats and throws tantrums to intimidate Guyana, does not rule out going for the loot. Guyana is rich in oil, gas and gold. Although Maduro has no resources and surely lacks the resilience to stage a war, his threats are serious.

The Cuban dictatorship, Maduro’s only longstanding friend, has told him no. Its firm friendship with Guyana is a legacy of the late tyrant Fidel Castro. Meanwhile, China says war is not good for business. Brazil, a neighbor of both countries, called on Maduro not to take unilateral actions and opt instead for diplomacy.

Putin’s tyranny is the only one that could support Maduro. Both have shadowy military cooperation, cybersecurity activities, espionage and the small, but dangerous, backing of the Wagner Group mercenaries.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Guyanese President Dr. Mohamed Irfaan Ali to reaffirm unwavering U.S. support for Guyana’s sovereignty. Blinken reiterated the call for a peaceful resolution to the dispute and for all parties to respect the 1899 arbitral award determining the land boundary between Venezuela and Guyana, unless or until the parties reach a new agreement, or a competent legal body decides otherwise. 

Blinken and President Ali also pointed to the International Court of Justice order issued on Dec. 1, which called for parties to refrain from any action that might aggravate or extend the dispute. 

But Maduro, in addition to territorial gain, is attempting to inflate his own support artificially by encouraging patriotic furor and a rally around the flag. Venezuela’s war games could be real, but either way they can serve as a pretext to suspend elections, intensify repression, silence the church, and pulverize the opposition with trials, prison or exile.

The Venezuelan regime, if it succeeds, will create a new focus of imbalance and conflict in the Americas. It will open a third front in a world shaken by the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza.

Last week’s, talks between Nicolas Maduro and the President of Guyana, Irfaan Ali, proved to be much ado about nothing. No one offered a change in position or any concrete action to settle the dispute. A timid but not insignificant achievement was a commitment to de-escalate the confrontational rhetoric, but we will have to wait and see.

Behind a smokescreen of Chavismo, Maduro’s Venezuela is threatening a war that would shatter the security and prosperity of the entire region. Latin America must continue to be a zone of peace; Maduro must not be allowed to turn it into another theater of war.

Arturo McFields Yescas is a former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States. He is an exiled journalist, and a former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps.