As Ukraine fights for its national survival, Congress chose the easy and wrong over the difficult and right this last week.
The second and third order effects of the Biden administration’s “just enough” Ukrainian war funding strategy came to a political head as Republican and Democratic lawmakers in the House voted to pass a “clean continuing resolution to keep the government funded at current spending levels for 45 days” by a vote of 335-91, advancing the legislation to the Senate, where it passed by a vote of 88-9.
This 45-day continuing resolution provides “disaster relief funds, an extension of a federal flood insurance program and FAA reauthorization — but no Ukraine aid.”
Although Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) issued a statement vowing that they will ensure that the U.S. will continue “to provide critical and sustained security and economic support for Ukraine,” the damage has already been done.
Washington is not united, and the Ukraine war has been politicized, handing Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin propaganda machine a gold mine to exploit. This unconscionable bipartisan failure has opened the door to Russian disinformation and U.S. domestic political infighting. Wittingly or not, Russian disinformation has entered the American political narrative and discourse.
Now Ukraine is also becoming embroiled in the 2024 presidential election cycle, at a time when President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals can least afford it. Ukraine’s fight for survival is now, and not after the election.
Unfortunately, winning has never been Washington’s goal. What began as a strategy to weaken Russia turned into a strategy of not “poking the bear,” which transitioned into a strategy of giving Ukraine more air defense.
For the Biden administration, this has always been about defending Ukraine, attriting Russian forces and eventually coming to a negotiated solution that exchanges Ukrainian land for peace — likely the restoration of the borders as they were on Feb. 24, 2022. The tools Ukraine needs to win decisively have been withheld, such that the war has dragged on, eroding American resolve after 20 months of combat.
The Biden administration’s failure to explain to the public why support for Ukraine is in America’s national security interests has allowed pundits from the far left and far right to make arguments against the continued funding of the war, essentially setting the stage for the politicization of Ukraine.
Freezing funding to Ukraine, even temporarily, sends the wrong message to our NATO allies and to our allies in the Pacific — Taiwan and South Korea. American promises cannot be only as good as the next election.
Putin was just thrown a lifeline. He now likely believes he can just keep feeding mobilized reservists, conscripts, mercenaries and foreign fighters into the fight, and eventually, the West will lose interest while Ukraine exhausts its resources. He is losing the ground war but winning the information war through an aggressive disinformation campaign that the U.S. has failed counter effectively.
By enabling Putin to hang around, Kremlin apologists such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico (a two-time former prime minister who is now the leading candidate again after his populist SMER party won 22.9 percent of the vote in last weekend’s election) are emboldened to continue obstructing funding for Ukraine and accession to NATO and the European Union, while pursuing a peace plan favorable to Russia.
America’s polarization and infighting have also contributed to Germany’s wavering commitment to send the Taurus cruise missile to Ukraine. The German government had approved delivery of the missile, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz delayed its deployment due to concerns that German technicians would have to “travel to Ukraine to help service and operate the complex weapon,” which some officials fear could “drag Berlin closer to a direct confrontation with Russia.”
All of this is going on while Ukraine’s counteroffensive is progressing — maybe not at the pace the West would like, but winning nonetheless. Why would the U.S. take its foot off the gas now when victory is within reach? As a bonus, a Putin defeat in Ukraine would likely result in the collapse of his regime, along with a high probability that other conflicts in the world underwritten by Russia would likely diminish significantly.
“Just enough” has proven again to be “not enough” when it comes to winning the war. And Biden’s pledge to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes” has contributed to Ukraine’s exhaustion. Competing domestic issues are turning governance inward and dividing American support for Kyiv.
Failure to provide precision deep-strike munitions that would enable Ukraine to set conditions on the battlefield, interdict Russian ground forces in Crimea and Russia, and destroy drone and missile launch sites before they can launch their instruments of terror against civilians has needlessly prolonged the war.
While cluster munitions delivered by 155 mm howitzers have significantly degraded Russian defenses and enabled Ukrainian ground forces to advance in the south and the Donbas, their range is limited to just 15 to 20 miles — not nearly enough to hit the Russian third lines described by Trent Maul, director of analysis for the Defense Intelligence Agency.
The need for ATACMS, HIMARS-delivered cluster munitions and fighter aircraft to provide air superiority and close air support is paramount now. The heavy lifting is being done by Ukraine — not a single U.S. or NATO soldier has been killed in this war. Our cost has been measured in dollars, not American lives. That could change, however, if Putin is given breathing room.
Western restrictions upon Ukraine’s offensive capabilities have only helped prolong the conflict. They have allowed Russia time to prepare extensive defensive fortifications, keep the fight in the trenches, and replace casualties unabated. Meanwhile, Russia continues to target civilians, grain storage facilities and critical infrastructure.
America needs leadership right now, not politics. Biden must circle the wagons, bring in Republican and Democratic leaders, and develop a unified plan of action, then deliver it. Public pledges of support — no matter how well-meaning by the president, Schumer or McConnell, are not the answer.
The repercussions of the decision by Congress to cut off funding will have lasting effects, possibly enabling Putin to survive. Should Ukraine fail, he will therefore pose an increased threat to NATO’s eastern flank, in addition to making our allies question whether the U.S. will honor its word.
Ukraine has Putin and his generals on the ropes. For the U.S. to walk away at this point is unconscionable. Just enable Ukraine to finish the job.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army Colonel and 30-year military intelligence officer, led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth is an economist, entrepreneur, and former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis.