For years, Americans believed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was a faraway and unlikely threat. That illusion was shattered this year, first with the spy balloon that traversed our skies and again last month after numerous reports that the CCP threat is at our door, just 90 miles from U.S. shores on the island of Cuba.
New revelations of Chinese spy stations, military bases and troop deployments in this communist island have rattled policymakers, exposing America’s vulnerability to a new Cuba crisis. In a joint statement, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Vice Chairman Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) called the China-Cuba axis a “serious threat to our national security and sovereignty.”
Americans should be alarmed by the threat that the island of Cuba would again serve as an unsinkable aircraft carrier for an enemy determined to achieve global supremacy. Many Americans remember the Cold War with the Soviet Union, but few realize that this new Cold War 2.0 with China will be more dangerous because China is a much more advanced enemy, with an economy and military capabilities almost equal to those of the United States.
To make matters worse, the Biden administration is behind the curve and is likely not being forthcoming about the full extent of China’s involvement in Cuba. We must assume that China’s footprint is much larger and more extensive than the administration is admitting and that it will become much worse.
Initially, the administration rejected reports of Chinese intelligence-gathering facilities in Cuba as “inaccurate,” later confirming that there were four such facilities on the island and that they had been upgraded in 2019. Just days after, the Wall Street Journal reported that China would open a military base and deploy troops to Cuba.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) called these developments a “provocation” and “escalation” in a letter to the Biden administration and demanded an immediate classified briefing to ensure full transparency from the administration on this extraordinary threat to U.S. national security.
Soon, policymakers will begin to examine how Chinese-built infrastructure in Cuba, much of it dual-use such as port terminals and telecommunications networks, can be used against the U.S. and democracies in our hemisphere. Many officials will remember how China was caught sending weapons to Cuba a few years ago, and wonder how many shipments of weapons China would sneak through if we fail to take action. What’s next?
Imagine the consequences of allowing this China-Cuba axis to metastasize. China is undergoing the fastest nuclear weapons buildup in the world and will have more than 1,000 nukes by the end of the decade. Some of those nuclear weapons could find a warm, tropical home in Cuba.
It is likely that China would seek to militarize Cuba as leverage to effectively deter the U.S. from defending Taiwan and other allies in the Indo-Pacific, or from preserving our position in the first island chain. China could seek to counter American defense of Taiwan, Japan or the Philippines with mines or missiles in the Florida straits, threatening to shut down shipping in the Gulf of Mexico to cripple energy and agricultural supply chains from New Orleans and Houston that are vital to our security.
China could also use Cuba as a staging ground to cut undersea fiber communications cables in the Caribbean, disconnecting the U.S. from our neighbors in the hemisphere and disorienting policymakers like a stun grenade. In his book, “2034: A Novel of the Next World War,” Adm. James Stavridis, former supreme allied commander of NATO and commander of U.S. Southern Command, posited a very similar scenario in the Atlantic Ocean.
Allowing the China-Cuba axis to continue would also be a catastrophe for democracies in our hemisphere. Far-left governments in Latin America would have cover to cling to power and abuse their citizens with impunity, propped up by Cuban and Chinese support. The “pink tide” movement that emerged during the past few years would turn into a red menace, and before long authoritarianism would proliferate across the hemisphere, causing economic and migratory crises at a scale far beyond what we see today. Our ability to project influence across the globe would be vastly diminished by the growing threat and instability in our own region.
Anti-Americanism is a fundamental tenet of the Cuban dictatorship. Concessions or engagement will not succeed in peeling the regime away from China or correcting its behavior. Look at their record. The Obama “thaw” didn’t moderate the regime. On the contrary, they were emboldened to escalate destructive interference in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Bolivia. While Obama negotiated, Cuban President Raul Castro struck deals with the Chinese Communist Party to build dual-use infrastructure also used by the Cuban and Chinese militaries, killed opposition leader Oswaldo Payá and may have unleashed attacks on our diplomats on the island.
The only way to end the grave threat posed by the China-Cuba axis is to help the Cuban people end the anti-American dictatorship and support a democratic transition.
For starters, the U.S. must reject all calls for negotiations, concessions or trade credits for the Cuban dictatorship. We’ve already learned that path is a dead end. The U.S. embargo, sanctions and Cuba’s designation as a state sponsor of terror must be preserved.
Instead, the administration should vastly expand the use of individual and targeted sanctions to include Cuban regime officials overseeing joint military projects with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, administrators that operate state enterprises, as well as family members, associates and foreign business partners that serve as intermediaries in illicit transactions designed to evade U.S. restrictions.
Secondly, the U.S. government must hold the Cuban dictatorship accountable for killing opposition leader Oswaldo Payá and violently oppressing peaceful protesters. The Department of Justice should indict regime officials involved in these crimes, including autocrat Miguel Diaz-Canel and members of the Castro family. In addition, the U.S. House of Representatives should immediately pass H.R. 1239, a bipartisan bill sponsored by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Shultz (D-Fla.), to rename the street in front of the Cuban embassy as Oswaldo Payá Way.
But the threat to U.S. national security and regional stability requires much more. The U.S. government should spearhead an international coalition that will work together to isolate the Cuban dictatorship and push the country towards a democratic transition. This includes advocating for the European Union to tear up its Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement with the Cuban dictatorship and initiating a review of Paris Club activities related to Cuba to freeze any financing from this group of creditor nations until Cuba transitions to democracy.
Importantly, the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard should prepare to interdict and inspect shipments to Cuba to prevent the transfer of Chinese or Russian weapons and other military equipment to this rogue regime.
Finally, the U.S. government must recognize the Cuban pro-democracy movement as legitimate representatives of the Cuban people and support a binding referendum, with preconditions and under international supervision, making way for a democratic transition in Cuba.
The China-Cuba axis will bring real dangers to our doorstep and give China irreversible leverage over the hemisphere. This requires the U.S. to take action before it’s too late.
Armando Ibarra is a public policy advisor on Latin American issues, a director at the Foundation for Pan-American Democracy and a founding member of Cuba Decide.