With North Korea at a crossroads, Kim hosts another summit

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are to meet today in Pyongyang for their third summit. Since January, Kim has conducted no nuclear or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests, but has failed to take any concrete steps towards denuclearization. He has, however, engaged in effective shuttle diplomacy with a troika of regional powers — Russia, China and South Korea — as well as his “sworn enemy” the United States, with an eye toward chipping away at his country’s economic isolation.   

North and South Korea have opened a liaison office in Kaesong, which was the site of a joint industrial center until South Korea closed it in January 2016 to protest North Korea’s ballistic missile and alleged hydrogen bomb test.  

{mosads}In May, Kim met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the first visit with a senior Russian official since Kim took power in 2011. According to Russia’s state-run Tass News Agency, during the meeting Kim stated: “I highly value the fact that Putin’s administration strictly opposes the U.S. dominance.” Kim also met with Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of his June summit in Singapore with President Trump.   

Kim has sought to take advantage of the lack of a united front among the United States, South Korea, China and Russia. President Moon has sought to fulfill campaign promises to improve relations with North Korea. China and Russia would like to reduce, if not eliminate, the U.S. military presence in the Korean Peninsula.

Focused on economic predation of North Korea, which entails productive relations with Kim’s ruthless autocracy, both China and Russia have openly stated their support for reducing sanctions before North Korea completes denuclearization. Ninety percent of North Korea’s trade is with China, which is averse to using its full leverage over North Korea in line with U.S. denuclearization strategy.

North Korea is the outlier in the heart of an economically vibrant region, with a young, literate and inexpensive workforce as well as untapped reserves of coal, iron ore, limestone and minerals. Kim continues to export coal, weapons and labor. Russia and China are shipping fuel to North Korea in violation of the U.N.-approved sanctions regime. According to the United Nations, North Korea has been shipping arms to Syria, Yemen and Libya.  

For years, North Korea has sought face-to-face negotiations with the United States; a peace treaty ending the Korean War, leading to diplomatic relations with the United States; and recognition of its status as a nuclear state. Continuing a long-held North Korean strategy of playing Russia, China, South Korea and the United States against one another, the Kim regime has sought to maximize economic gain from negotiations, without giving up the nuclear and ballistic missile programs on which its regime security depends.  

North Korea has a long history of failing to deliver on promises to denuclearize.  Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made three visits to Pyongyang, with few concrete results beyond a thaw in warmongering rhetoric. President Trump canceled the planned fourth visit, which had been designed to introduce special representative Stephen Biegun, start the process for North Korea to declare its inventory of nuclear armaments, and agree on a timeline for denuclearization.

Kim has created the impression he is committed to denuclearization while his state-controlled media accuse the United States of “gangster” diplomacy every time the United States presses forward with even the most benign demands stemming from the broad disarmament framework to which Kim and President Trump agreed in Singapore.

Kim seeks to project strength, most recently during his lavish 70th anniversary parade.  But he knows his regime, which relies on silencing his people’s fears, is inherently unstable and in great need of an economic lifeline. North Korea denies its citizens every political, civil and religious liberty. Kim is delicately balancing his citizens’ rising economic expectations, resulting from well-publicized summit diplomacy, with enough economic concessions from North Korea’s neighbors to forestall regime collapse.

The United States needs to be prepared for three dangerous scenarios: a continuation of the current state of affairs, whereby North Korea retains its nuclear weapons and missile capability, which threaten the region and our homeland; the potential for North Korea to proliferate its nuclear and missile technology; and a loose nuke scenario in the event the Kim regime collapses.

Kim’s behavior thus far strains the logic that North Korea has accumulated ICBMs and nuclear weapons only to barter them all away for food, energy and a productive relationship with the international community. Referring to U.S. interest in a diplomatic solution, national security adviser John Bolton emphasized recently in a speech to the Federalist Society that “President Trump can’t make the North Koreans walk through the door he’s holding open.”  

In anticipation of a possible second summit between President Trump and Kim, today’s meeting might be the canary in the coal mine. President Moon and Kim reportedly prepared to discuss economic projects, which Kim surely would like to implement immediately.  

Will Moon dangle an economic integration plan carrot with a promise of implementation only after North Korea’s complete denuclearization, in line with U.S. strategy? If so, how will Kim react?

Daniel N. Hoffman is a retired clandestine services officer and former chief of station with the Central Intelligence Agency. His combined 30 years of government service included high-level overseas and domestic positions at the CIA. Follow him on Twitter @DanielHoffmanDC.