Biden refuses to rain on Putin’s Victory Day parade

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his entourage of “Murder Inc.” thugs gathered in Moscow’s Red Square on May 9 to observe another Victory Day parade. Yet, like Putin’s “special military operation” launched on Feb. 24, 2022, it failed to deliver. The parade was absent its signature flyover due to “bad weather,” and led by an armored drive-by farcically reduced to a single World War II-era T-34 tank. 

Predictably, the Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launcher made its appearance, intentionally providing a subtle reminder to the United States and NATO of Russia’s nuclear capability to escalate. 

Putin’s conventional army is clearly running on empty. On the same day Putin presided over Moscow’s Victory Day parade, Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Russian 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade fled Bakhmut after Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade attacked the unit, inflicting 500 casualties. The hunted has now become the hunter.

Yet the Biden administration remains reluctant to press Ukraine’s growing military advantage over Moscow. The U.S. and old NATO continue to be a lifeline to Ukraine, but aid is still largely limited to defensive military assistance and humanitarian support. Washington’s fears of escalation are needlessly handicapping Kyiv as it prepares to launch a counteroffensive the magnitude of the allied invasion of Normandy during World War II and the Inchon amphibious landing during the Korean War. 

The stakes are high, and Washington’s “killer instincts” are missing in action. The future security of Eastern Europe is at stake — and Ukraine is clearly feeling the pressure. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov publicly declared that global “expectations” of Kyiv’s looming counter offensive are being “overestimated.” 

Reznikov is right to be cautious given the constraints of the offensive weaponry available to Ukraine. The task of forcibly expelling all Russian ground forces from Ukraine, including Crimea, is monumental and will be a marathon and not a sprint — a reality social media and the 24-hour news cycle tend to gloss over. Strategic patience will be essential as the battles unfold along a 900-mile front against formidable Russian defensive positions. 

The war-winning prize, Crimea, may have to wait because of the Biden administration’s dithering until Ukraine can set the proper conditions. Ben Hodges, retired U.S. Army lieutenant general and former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, has said for months that Crimea is decisive terrain and that “liberating Crimea changes everything.” 

Ukraine likely cannot quickly change anything in Crimea until President Joe Biden and his national security team begin to listen to their generals. General Christopher Cavoli, commanding general, U.S. European Command, briefed a group of U.S. congressmen that long-range missile systems such as ATACMS and F-16 fighter-bombers could help Kyiv win the war against Russia. Cavoli had previously urged lawmakers at the Munich Security Conference in mid-February to “send the most advanced weapons they can part with to Ukraine.” 

Cavoli’s counsel, however, runs counter to the Biden administration’s seemingly duplicitous policy approach in Ukraine. On the one hand, Washington continues to deny Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the offensive capabilities and weapon systems he needs to win. On the other hand, according to the leaked U.S. intelligence assessments in April, Washington doubts Ukraine can achieve Zelensky’s counteroffensive objectives.

It almost seems as if this is the Biden administration’s preferred end-state: Putin not winning, but not losing either. It is also a recipe for a “forever war.” 

How else are we to reconcile the Biden administration’s purported “bleak assessment” warning of “force generation and sustainment shortfalls” and likelihood of “modest territorial gains,” and Biden’s refusal to provide Ukraine with the tools necessary to liberate Crimea? Leaked or not, the top-secret documents echo the similar public statements by General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Lloyd Austin, secretary of Defense. 

Even Ukraine is beginning to publicly call out the Biden administration for its apparent duplicity. Tamila Tasheva, Ukraine’s permanent representative in Crimea, asserted “Western officials have asked Ukraine not to liberate Russian-occupied Crimea over fears that Moscow would pull the nuclear lever.”

Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, implied as much, confirming what is beginning to become a contagious Biden administration self-fulfilling prophecy when he observed, “I think there’s more of a consensus out there that people realize that Ukraine is not going to militarily retake Crimea.”

Zelensky, however, cannot win this kind of Biden-imposed “forever war.” For Ukraine to win, it cannot become decisively engaged with Russia such as we are witnessing on a smaller scale in Bakhmut; rather, it must outmaneuver the Russians.

Three essential requirements for maneuver in a combined arms offensive are speed, air support and fire power. The Biden administration, thus far, is failing to provide the air and fire support necessary to generate speed. To their credit, a few European nations are stepping up in Washington’s absence. 

This is not Biden leading from behind; this is Washington being pulled across the finish line by Poland, Slovakia and the United Kingdom. What began as a squabble over German Leopard II Main Battle Tanks in the absence of the U.S. M2 Abrams is continuing with ATACMS and F16s. Every delay in U.S. commitment gives Russia additional time to prepare — and to murder even more Ukrainian civilians in drone and missile strikes. 

If Ukraine succeeds in retaking Crimea this year, the United Kingdom, alongside Poland and Slovakia, will have led the way. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is nearing authorizing the transfer to Kyiv of “long-range missiles the Biden Administration has long denied it” — including the 200-mile range air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missile. In combination with contributions by Warsaw and Bratislava of MiG-29 fighter jets, Ukraine would then have an effective precision deep-strike capability. 

Meanwhile, Washington announced yet another $1.2 billion stop-gap aid package  to Ukraine “intended to bolster its air defenses and sustain its artillery ammunition needs.” All essential, but not what Ukraine requires to win by making Crimea untenable: interdicting Russian troop formations, striking air bases, seaports and logistical bases, conducting counterfire missions on ballistic missile and drone launch sites, targeting command and control Russian centers and isolating the peninsula by destroying the Kerch Strait Bridge.

As Stefan Korshak acerbically recorded in the Kyiv Post, “there are farmers in Ukraine with more tanks” than were on display in Red Square on Victory Day. It is time the Biden administration takes notice of Russia’s weakness, shakes off its “escalation paralysis” and starts raining on Putin’s parade by fully empowering Ukraine to go for the win in Crimea. 

Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division and the Intelligence and Security Command. He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012-14, working with NATO partners in the Black Sea and Baltics. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.  

Mark Toth is a retired economist and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing, and global commerce. He is a former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis, and has lived in U.S. diplomatic and military communities around the world, including London, Tel Aviv, Augsburg, and Nagoya. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL.