Fresh from President Biden’s courageous visit to Kyiv and his meetings with counterparts from the so-called “Bucharest Nine,” the nations that constitute NATO’s eastern flank, the administration has warned that China may begin to provide arms and materiel to Russia in order to prop up Moscow’s flagging operations in Ukraine.
There has been speculation that China is aiding the Russian war effort. Nevertheless, the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese State Counsellor Wang Yi, the Chinese Communist Party’s most senior foreign policy official — held almost at the same time as Biden’s meetings with the Eastern European leaders — certainly reinforced the impression that China is preparing a major effort to provide materiel support for the Russian offensive that is expected to take place in early spring, if not sooner.
Unlike Americans, Russians and Chinese have long memories. China certainly recalls the significant assistance that it received from the Soviet Union after it entered the Korean War in support of the North. Initially, Russia sent medical aid, as well as submachine guns and medium tanks to support the Chinese and North Korean efforts. Indeed, by April 1950, Moscow had provided more than one-third of North Korea’s aircraft.
China’s air force was comparatively small, however, and though it was equipped with Soviet MiG-15 fighters, its pilots were poorly trained. Soviet pilots undertook to train their Chinese counterparts. Nevertheless, the Chinese air force performed so poorly that, in April 1951, Joseph Stalin decided to intervene directly in the air war. Beginning that month, Soviet pilots wearing Chinese uniforms began to fly MiG-15s that bore Chinese or North Korean markings. Active until the 1954 ceasefire, they participated in a number of the war’s major battles.
More than a half-century later, Beijing appears ready to return Russia’s favor. Because of its concern that open provision of major armaments could trigger sanctions that would debilitate its already weak economy, however, Beijing is likely to adopt a ruse similar to that of the Soviets who aided it during the Korean War. It could mask its support by secretly transferring ammunition to Moscow, probably through third parties such as Iran. It could supply heavy weaponry, and even aircraft, that would be fitted out with Russian markings. These systems could then be manned either by the Russians themselves or by Chinese posing as Russian ethnic minorities.
China could provide still more support through a host of companies in the United States and Europe that it controls through a complex, and often untraceable, web of ownerships. In that regard, in June 2021, Washington restricted trade with 44 firms that the Department of Defense termed “Chinese military companies” operating “directly or indirectly” in the United States.. These companies, the Pentagon asserted, are part of China’s “Military-Civil Fusion development strategy, which supports the modernization goals of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) by ensuring its access to advanced technologies and expertise acquired … [by what] appear to be civilian entities.”
In October 2022, the Defense Department added 12 more companies to that list. At least one study has asserted, however, that the Chinese military has far more firms operating in the U.S. as civilian entities but under its shadowy management. These firms could take the lead in providing high-technology support to Russia’s flailing forces.
The Biden administration has warned China not to support the Russian offensive that observers anticipate will commence soon. According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Biden advised Beijing that it would face “real consequences” if China sends what he termed “lethal assistance” to Russia. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, Washington’s ambassador to the United Nations, likewise warned China to refrain from aiding Moscow. Doing so, she asserted, “would be a ‘red line,’” an unfortunate term that conjures up Barack Obama’s identical and ultimately empty threat to the Syrian government not to employ chemical weapons against its own people.
Given these explicit warnings, the administration cannot afford to repeat Obama’s error of not following through, which undermined American credibility in the Middle East. Washington cannot sit still if it determines that China is about to cross that notorious “red line” and provide Russia with materiel support for its invading forces. It should immediately sanction all Chinese companies in the U.S. that have any potential to support the Chinese military, and should encourage its NATO allies to do the same. Moreover, and together with its allies, it should announce that the United States will immediately transfer multi-purpose F-16 fighters, together with requisite logistics support, to the Ukrainian air force. Finally, it must accelerate delivery of M-1 tanks that are scheduled to arrive in Ukraine in about a year’s time.
Biden’s visit to Kyiv demonstrated to Moscow that America will not back down its support for Ukraine as its resists Russian aggression; nor, for that matter, will it cower before Russian threats to retaliate for ongoing American support for Ukraine. Biden must do the same with regard to China. Not only must he spell out to Beijing in the most unambiguous detail what he means by “consequences,” but he also must make clear that America will respond forcefully and without hesitation if China were so foolish as to attempt to intervene in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was under secretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy under secretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.