Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is far from the only politician interested in secession, which has been discussed by the Wyoming GOP chairman and is already part of the Texas GOP platform.
While the right is more vocal, a national breakup is not its dream alone. A June 2021 survey by Bright Line Watch found about a third of the country supported a split. Their ranks include more than half of Southern Republicans, but also 41 percent of Democrats in California and the Pacific Northwest, and 34 percent of heartland independents.
Secession, however, is a really bad idea. Let me tally the ways.
First, there’s no legal way to opt-out of our union. When a writer queried the Supreme Court on this point, former Justice Antonin Scalia wrote: ”If there was any Constitutional issue resolved by the Civil War, it is that there is no right to secede.”
Perhaps we could have a 50-state referendum. But if swing state politics look ugly now, imagine the divided and heavily armed populations of Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania trying to decide whether to stay or go. The likely assaults, voter intimidation and guerrilla warfare would give Bloody Kansas some company.
But setting aside how it could happen, consider the question on its merits.
Suppose the right took most Southern states, including Texas — one of America’s youngest states, its second biggest economy and one of the top oil producers in the world. It’s unlikely Texas would be allowed to just walk away, especially in the midst of the Ukraine war, which is challenging global oil supplies.
Even if the remaining states were willing to abandon these resources, there would be the moral conundrum. Texas conservatives would happily forgo progressive pressure on climate change or inclusivity. Progressives might be happy to see them leave and move forward with their own policies in the remaining states. But letting Texas walk away would mean abandoning a series of communities whose plight is core to progressive’s democratic distress. Women seeking abortions would have to cross international borders. Supportive parents of trans kids would be without any federal recourse if charged with child abuse.
What if Californians took their India-sized economy — the fifth biggest on the planet — to perfect their progressive dream of Scandinavia on the Pacific? In departing, they would take with them 38 Democratic U.S. representatives and two Democratic senators. This is an odd choice to champion among Democrats trying to add states to bolster their congressional chances. But it would be excellent for Republicans, since it would likely condemn the remainder of blue America to long-term GOP control.
Perhaps it’s no surprise that the 2016 Calexit referendum, framed as a way for progressives to escape Trumpism, was run by two men who had been registered Republicans just a few years before.
Regardless of who leaves, the long border would likely be hostile. Texas would complete its wall with Mexico, perhaps leaving real or transport-linked immigration corridors where potential immigrants could head directly to the remainder of the United States (much as Hungary did in order to cause further headaches for the European Union during a refugee wave in 2015).
While blue states would increase checks on guns and private armed groups, red states would loosen restrictions. That’s a recipe for criminal syndicates buying and transporting guns (and other banned goods and people) along the border.
And what of foreign policy? MAGA Republicans have been cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Would they allow Russian intelligence operations and drone launches from their side of the border? Or let Russia stage “defensive” weaponry, much as the United States has done in NATO countries bordering Russia?
Whatever America was left would have a rump military. As the most populous state, California supplies the largest number of U.S. service members, but Texas and other Southern states provide the bulk of the military force. The South hosts a disproportionate number of bases. Who would get what? However things were split, the winners would be China and Russia, which would face a hobbled United States.
Perhaps that is why Russia has been the biggest supporter of secession talk in the United States. Californians who wanted out might be surprised that one of the Republican operatives leading the referendum had deep, longstanding ties to Russia and returned to live there before California’s referendum was even complete. The most popular Texas secession page on Facebook was created not by Lone Star defenders but Russian trolls.
The Kremlin has supported secessionist efforts worldwide to weaken democracies — from the Catalans in Spain to Scottish independence. In 2016, it sponsored a conference for global secessionist movements — including Texas, California and Puerto Rico.
Putin should be a more uncomfortable bedfellow for a movement that professes to want to make America great again. He certainly shouldn’t be supported by progressives who stand in opposition to Russia’s export of anti-gay, patriarchal and white supremacist values.
America is like a couple at the brink who imagine divorce would be liberating, when in fact they would spend their lives negotiating shared custody, alimony and logistics with a hated former partner.
Like most married couples, Americans have fundamental differences that can’t be resolved. We have a set of fights that recur throughout our history. But we’ve had better and worse moments together. It’s time to stop fantasizing and put our energy into building a better future together.
Rachel Kleinfeld is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.