High above the red crenelated walls of the Kremlin and the bloody battlefields of Ukraine, mythic Norse Valkyries, mounted on flying stallions, are, allegorically-speaking, circling overhead. Russian President Vladimir Putin is squarely in their sights and he should be wary because these helmeted versions of the winged maidens are not benevolent. They are sinister and charged by the Nordic god Odin with determining who lives and who dies, and who is worthy of entry to Valhalla.
It’s likely that Putin was nearly chosen by the Valkyries in December. Only several days after visiting Belarusian President Viktor Lukashenko in Minsk — after warning of an “escalating situation” in an obvious attempt to appear in command after weeks of lying low — Putin abruptly canceled a visit to a tank factory in Nizhny Tagil. Snow-covered streets, rarely ever plowed, had been cleared and Putin’s state limousine was already pre-positioned.
Then, before ill health rumors or other contrived explanations of Putin’s cancellation could take hold, in an eerie, 79-year old echo of the aftermath of “Operation Valkyrie” and the assassination attempt on Adolf Hitler at his Wolf’s Lair in present-day Gierłoż, Poland, General Alexei Maslov, a high-profile special representative of the Uralvagonzavod tank factory, died “unexpectedly” of a heart attack on Christmas Day. Coincidence, or a repeat of elements of Germany’s high command to eliminate Hitler?
The Germans came close. In July 1944, a group of senior Wehrmacht officers led by Gen. Friedrich Olbricht, Maj. Gen. Henning von Tresckow, and Col. Claus von Stauffenberg finalized a plan that relied upon co-opting Nazi Germany’s national emergency contingency plan that was code-named “Operation Valkyrie.” All that was needed for it to become fully operational was for Hitler to die. Stauffenberg placed a time bomb near Hitler, but a heavy wooden leg of a conference table spared him.
Had Maslov (and unknown accomplices) nearly succeeded as well in Nizhny Tagil? Maslov likely had the means and credentials to pull off a coup d’état. He was the former commander in chief of all ground forces in Russia and later the Russian military representative to NATO. He had peer contacts in the West who might have proved useful in helping to negotiate an immediate end to the war in Ukraine.
Mark Hertling, retired lieutenant general and former commander of United States Army Europe, reflected after Maslov’s death that he was “a solid officer, trying to professionalize the Russian army. He unfortunately served in the early cusp of Putin’s ‘radical’ approaches. His time in command coincided with the start of Putin becoming increasingly emboldened.”
Internally, Maslov likely still would have had a strong following of loyal military subordinates, many of whom are senior in rank and in command of troop formations or staff officers. As the Russian military representative to NATO, he also would have had contacts in the West that he maintained, including, possibly, various foreign intelligence services that may have hinted he unseat Putin and in return be recognized immediately as Russia’s de facto new leader.
The combination of the two may have proved too much for the Federal Security Services of the Russian Federation (FSB) and remnants of Putin’s former employer, the Soviet Committee of State Security, or as it is more commonly known in the West, the KGB. The Uralvagonzavod tank plant provided Maslov, and any would be co-conspirators, with a tactical home field advantage. Did something alert the FSB of a threat, making Putin’s trip too risky?
Regardless, if the Valkyries finally do come for Putin, the list of those who might replace him is likely not to include anyone nearly as tolerant as Maslov. Nor is this likely to play out in the future as the heroic Hollywood film production of “Operation Valkyrie” with Tom Cruise as Stauffenberg suggested it might if the group of Wehrmacht conspirators had succeeded. Stauffenberg and the others, as senior officers, were well aware of The Holocaust — arguably, complicit — and waited far too long to act against Hitler until most Jews and other victims of The Holocaust were murdered by the Nazis.
Grumblings are coming from within the various sociopolitical inner circles in Moscow, and they are increasingly more overt in nature. This suggests Putin is becoming more vulnerable. The Institute for the Study of War reported on Jan. 10 that Igor Girkin, former defense minister of the People’s Republic of Donetsk and now a prominent Russian milblogger on Telegram who was convicted in absentia for downing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine, “implied that he would support the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin from office, his most direct criticism of Putin to date.”
Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s win-at-all-cost tactics in Bakhmut and Soledar are resonating with Russia’s frustrated Siloviki, Girkin’s fellow vocal milbloggers, and rapidly capturing the imagination of Russia’s state-controlled media who are desperate to report any kind of victory, even a Pyrrhic victory, in Ukraine. Prigozhin, to build upon his growing political stature in Moscow, claims provocatively that he and his Wagner Group mercenaries are responsible for the strategically questionable win in Soledar — and pointedly not Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia’s regular military forces.
Putin and his FSB cronies may be aware of the Valkyries symbolically flying around the Kremlin. It is likely why Maslov “suddenly died.” It is also why Girkin and Prigozhin should tread lightly moving forward, lest they follow suit — paranoid authoritarians are not good for one’s health.
In the end, Putin’s survival and ultimate Valhalla fate might come down to an ongoing “clash of personalities,” as Hertling recently termed it on Erin Burnett’s CNN “OutFront” news show. Putin, Prigozhin, Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of Defence, are all going at each other (with Girkin trying to enter the fray), while Russia’s war, as a result, is going nowhere in Ukraine, save a kilometer here or a strategically insignificant building there.
Meanwhile, the Valkyries circling the Kremlin and battlefields in Donbas are, at least for now, content to spare Putin and choose from among the 16,000 and counting Russians troops killed since the beginning of the new year.
Regime change in the Kremlin will not happen as a result of the United States; Washington is not Valhalla. Nor will Prigozhin or other nationalists provide the end state to this war that the West would welcome. Where are the Russian nationalists, the von Stauffenbergs, who desire to take Russia off its collision course with the West? Who shall rise up to become the next Mikhail Gorbachev? The Valkyries are waiting. So, too, is Odin.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), DIA, NSA and NGA. He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012-14, working with NATO partners in the Black Sea and Baltics. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
Mark Toth is a retired economist, historian and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing, and global commerce. He is a former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis, and has lived in U.S. diplomatic and military communities around the world, including London, Tel Aviv, Augsburg, and Nagoya. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL.