If the Trump-Kim summit fails (or never happens), war is guaranteed

While the world might be captivated over the news that Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un have met in Beijing and that another summit, this time between Seoul and Pyongyang, is now set for April 27, these are nothing compared to what could be the biggest summit of all: President Donald J. Trump meeting Kim at the end of May.

{mosads}And the dangers can’t be understated. For it seems that all of Northeast Asia and indeed the U.S. has put all of its collective hopes on a meeting that if it were to go badly — or not happen at all — could see tensions in the region spike. To be clear: if this summit does not occur or goes horribly wrong there would be no more diplomatic road left to travel on and the path to war — perhaps nuclear war — seems more likely than ever before.

Why A Summit Won’t Happen

But before we discuss the death of millions and what would likely be World War III, let us step back and consider what is at stake in such a summit and why it could very well never take place at all.

“Trump’s entire North Korea strategy could be a giant bluff” https://t.co/9elUvRhHil pic.twitter.com/NEMeqdvFPP

— The Hill (@thehill) December 26, 2017

First, the Trump administration has made it quite clear that a summit, at least for them, has only one goal: to ensure that Kim gives up his nuclear weapons. The administration has committed to a plan of denuclearization or a continuation and increase of “maximum pressure” over time. There seems very little interest in any sort of softer approach where Washington would offer some sort of financial inducements for the gradual relinquishment of Kim’s atomic arms.

For the moment, it seems Team Trump wants a clear commitment of total nuclear disarmament from Kim and some big steps towards that goal before even talking about any easing of sanctions or other benefits. If this is not in the offing, I doubt President Trump ever boards Air Force One.

North Korea too will also have some big goals as well. Knowing that the Trump administration demands the total abandonment of its nuclear aspirations — and most likely the world’s most intrusive inspections regime to ensure compliance — Pyongyang will have a laundry list of asks. These would most likely include, as an opening bid: The ending of all economic sanctions, a security guarantee from China, a peace treaty ending the Korean War, formal diplomatic recognition from Washington, and most likely billions of dollars in economic aid.

North and South Korean officials to meet ahead of summit next month https://t.co/ery2DovRkI pic.twitter.com/OuZnMXshQM

— The Hill (@thehill) March 29, 2018

However, Kim might want even more, and might make unattainable demands such as the ending of the U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance or the full withdrawal of the U.S. forces from all of Northeast Asia. This would prove that Kim has been wasting the world’s time all along, stalling for time to build a nuclear weapon that can definitively hit the U.S. homeland. I would expect that if Kim can’t get at least multiple concessions before a date is set leading up to the summit then it will never happen.

The Summit Could Go Bad

While most modern-day summits between nation states are highly scripted affairs that have clearly mapped out deliverables for both sides before anyone ever shakes hands, this summit could very well be different. As there is no trust between Washington and Pyongyang and very few diplomatic contacts, it will be nearly impossible for both sides to come to any sort of agreement before a summit happens. This could create the conditions of what would be almost an impossible situation: Kim and Trump meeting to directly negotiate an easing of tensions one on one — with no guarantees of anything. And considering how both men have no prior relationship, no chemistry or trust to build on the chances are great that such a summit is doomed to fail.

The Path to War Is Now Clear

In any event, if a summit were to never happen or go down in a ball of diplomatic flames the path to a resumption of the Korean War is clear. Pyongyang will quickly resume missile and nuclear weapons testing within days, setting off a diplomatic crisis where Washington will be forced to respond with even more pressure.

My latest piece on #NorthKorea for @thehill: https://t.co/R1rnHDOfuG

— Harry Kazianis (@GrecianFormula) March 12, 2018

However, looking over the long-term, the Trump administration will be forced to select from two very bad choices if things were to go back to the state of tensions witnessed in 2017. America could choose to contain North Korea for perhaps decades, playing a cat and mouse game that could grow frustrating and see Pyongyang sell much of its nuclear technology to the highest bidder. Or, Washington could settle on a military strike of overwhelming power that is aimed towards regime change.

Both are horrible options, but Washington has only two real choices if this summit fails. And knowing that President Trump has tapped John Bolton and Mike Pompeo to join his administration, the president could very well be preparing to make the ultimate of choices, and could be leaning towards an attack if America’s summit hopes are dashed.

Harry J. Kazianis (@grecianformula) is director of Defense Studies at theCenter for the National Interest, founded in 1994 by President Richard M. Nixon, as well as executive editor on its publishing arm, The National Interest. Kazianis previously served on the foreign policy team of the 2016 Ted Cruz presidential campaign. He has also held positions as Foreign Policy Communications Manager at the Heritage Foundation, editor-in-chief of The Diplomat as well as a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The views voiced in this article are his own.