Republicans captured the House of Representatives, and Democrats retained control of the Senate. Both parties have something to celebrate, but the big winner of the midterms is American democracy.
The violence many feared would accompany the election did not occur. Voting took place with no serious problems and little controversy. With a few exceptions, the losers conceded, more or less graciously.
Before the election, several candidates had refused to say whether they would accept the results if they lost. Of the losers in hotly contested races, however, only Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) plans to challenge her defeat.
Most significantly, MAGA adherents in competitive races did poorly. Far-right candidates endorsed by former President Trump lost races Republicans hoped to win, including four out of six swing-state Senate contests.
Candidates who accepted the “big lie” that Democrats stole the 2020 election lost 12 of 13 statewide elections (governor, secretary of state, and attorney general) in six battleground states.
Prior to Nov. 8, a smooth election followed by a peaceful transition seemed unlikely. On Oct. 26, a bulletin sent jointly by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Department of Homeland Security and National Counterterrorism Center to law enforcement warned of “violence and broader efforts to justify violence in the lead up to and following the 2022 midterm election cycle.” The bulletin added that “lone offenders” posed the greatest danger.
Threats to election officials have occurred regularly since the 2020 presidential election. A March Brenan Center for Justice survey of 596 local election officials from all parties across the country revealed that 1 in 6 had been personally threatened through the mail, social media, telephone or in person.
Statewide and national races have attracted the most attention, but threats and harassment have also occurred in local elections held in small communities. In June, a crowd of self-styled election observers tried to intimidate officials in Shasta County, Calif., during a primary election for school superintendent, county sheriff and district attorney.
As Election Day approached, the threat of voter intimidation increased. In Arizona, vigilantes (some armed and wearing tactical gear) have been accused of intimidating voters at drop boxes. People were videotaped, photographed and followed as they dropped off their ballots.
The threatening behavior prompted Maricopa County elections officials to issue a statement condemning the activity. “We are deeply concerned about the safety of individuals who are exercising their constitutional right to vote and who are lawfully taking their early ballot to a drop box,” they declared. “Uninformed vigilantes outside Maricopa County’s drop boxes are not increasing election integrity,” they added. “Instead, they are leading to voter intimidation complaints.”
Across the country, extremist groups threatened to disrupt the elections. In the aftermath of the Jan. 6 insurrection, Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and Three Percenters reportedly abandoned “their nationwide election intimidation strategy in favor of local efforts focused on neighborhood ballot boxes,” according to Axios.
The pervasive threat to election integrity made the peaceful conduct of the midterms all the more noteworthy. The anticipated violence never occurred, even though the delay in tabulating results in close races created ample opportunity for mischief.
Spin doctors from both parties are busy interpreting the election results, especially Republicans disappointed that an anticipated red wave failed to occur. The answer may lie in what voters believed was at stake.
Days after an attack on Paul Pelosi, husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), President Biden addressed the American people about the threat of election violence. “Democracy is on the ballot this year,” he warned.
Many Americans believed him. The Associated Press’s VoteCast survey revealed that 44 percent of voters said “the future of democracy” was their primary consideration. They undoubtedly voted Democratic. So did millions of women concerned about reproductive rights, another basic freedom under threat.
One smooth election does not, however, eliminate the threat to American democracy. Election officials in some areas had to take extraordinary measures to prevent violence. Those preparations included installing bulletproof glass in offices and conducting active-shooter drills for election workers. Maricopa County, Ariz., erected fences and barricades around its election department.
The lower stakes in a midterm may also have contributed to a peaceful outcome. In a presidential election, the electoral college affords election deniers more opportunity to interfere when they don’t like the results. Ten states have passed laws giving their legislatures greater power to oversee elections, which they may use in 2024.
Some ultra-conservatives advocate the “independent state legislature theory,” which argues that a state legislature has the power to set aside the results of an election on grounds of voting irregularity, no matter how flimsy. It would then be free to appoint its own slate of electors.
Trump called on states to do just that in 2020. Changes in state election laws and favorable court rulings might give state legislatures a stronger case for doing so should the Republican candidate lose in 2024.
The United States remains deeply divided. The new Congress will include more than 170 senators and representatives who have denied or at least called into question the results of the 2020 election. That reality and Trump’s declaration of his intent to run again guarantees that the 2024 election will be contentious.
The threat of political violence remains. In a January survey, 1 in 4 Americans said violence against the government is sometimes necessary, and 1 in 10 said it was justifiable at present. Nearly 1 in 5 Republican men agreed.
Domestic extremist groups may have gone to ground after Jan. 6, but they have not gone away. The Southern Poverty Law Center identified 488 antigovernment groups active in 2021, down from 566 the previous year but still worrisome.
No one knows the size of these groups, but the Anti-Defamation League obtained an Oath Keepers membership list with 38,000 names. That data suggests the group is larger than the National Guard of most states.
We can all breathe a sigh of relief that the midterms took place without violence or serious problems, but we must not become complacent. American democracy remains fragile.
Tom Mockaitis is a professor of history at DePaul University and author of “Violent Extremists: Understanding the Domestic and International Terrorist Threat.”