Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked a proxy world war

There is much to be said for the Biden administration’s latest $38 billion supplemental request to Congress to help fund Ukraine’s forces and its economy. The request for yet another Ukraine supplemental, the fourth since the Russian invasion that began on Feb. 24, of which $21.7 billion is for equipment and to replenish American stocks, would bring total American support for Ukraine to $104 billion. In addition to this massive sum, the White House is seeking $7 billion in drawdown authority that would enable President Biden to transfer military materiel to Ukraine from America’s dwindling stocks.

The administration’s request to what is now a lame-duck Congress reflects its sober calculation that any additional requests to fund the Ukrainian war effort might not win easy congressional approval in the divided Congress that will convene in January. No fewer than 57 members of the House and 11 senators, Republicans all, voted against the $40 billion Ukraine supplemental that the Congress approved in May. An even larger number of House Republicans — 201 — voted against the Sept. 30 Continuing Resolution that included $12.3 billion more for Kyiv.

An invigorated Republican right wing could render it exceedingly difficult for Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who is slated to become the next Speaker of the House, to muster passage for a fifth Ukraine supplemental. Given what is now certain to be a tiny Republican House majority, McCarthy would have to rely on Democratic votes to approve any further aid to Kyiv. Doing so, however, could well prompt a revolt in the House Republican caucus. McCarthy may not wish to tempt fate.

The current request could sustain the Ukrainian forces for some time; the funding approved in September has yet to be fully expended. If passed, the latest administration request is not likely to be fully expended for several months into 2023. Moreover, unless McCarthy were actively to block any further effort to fund Ukrainian needs, there would be a sufficient combination of Democratic and Republican votes in the House, whose Republican majority appears likely to be less than 10, to fund at least one more supplemental in 2023.

Some of the funds from the latest Biden request could be applied immediately to the transfer of tanks to Kyiv. Estimates for the time it would take to train the Ukrainians on M-1 tanks range from a few weeks to two months. Training Ukrainian troops now would ready them for operations when the roads freeze early next year and when Kyiv will sorely need additional armor.

In the meantime, other states also continue to support Ukraine, though clearly to a far lesser degree. Britain’s new government remains committed to aiding Kyiv, despite the fact that its own military stocks have fallen to dangerously low levels. Other NATO states are providing support, as are NATO candidates Sweden and Finland. Japan has transferred reconnaissance drones and military gear of various types and South Korea is providing howitzers, artillery shells and tanks, indirectly via Poland and the United States.

Russia is receiving support from a coalition of its own, albeit a far smaller one. Belarus has enabled Russian forces to operate from its territory. Moscow has successfully recruited Syrian fighters and former Afghan special forces personnel. Finally, North Korea has been sending Russia shells from the vast stockpile that supports artillery aimed at the South, thereby paralleling the artillery support that Seoul is providing the Ukrainians.

From the start, the war between Russia and Ukraine has been more than a local conflict. Despite the absence of direct participation of other states, the conflict nevertheless is in many ways a proxy world war, with what appears to be a subordinate proxy war between the two Koreas. 

Many have derided President Biden’s rhetoric regarding the “competition” between autocracies and democracies. The Russo-Ukrainian conflict is demonstrating the degree to which the contrast between the two forms of governance is far more than mere competition. And for that reason, if for no other, the democracies must heed the words of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and “continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was under secretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy under secretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.