After the Biden-Xi summit, get ready for a far more active Xi Jinping

At the dawn of the Cold War, the Truman administration acted boldly, in what historians later would term the “100 Days of 1947” from President Truman’s March 12 announcement of what would become known as the Truman Doctrine to Secretary of State George Marshall’s June5 outline of the Marshall Plan for reconstructing Europe. 

During this period, Truman provided the guiding principle of that conflict: the U.S. was going to fight communist expansion and would stand with any state doing the same. The Marshall Plan offered tangible and immediate support for allies. But it was more than economic aid. It was also an ideological weapon that forced Joseph Stalin to forbid the participation of states under his control; indeed, he compelled the Czechoslovaks to reverse their decision to join. The plan worked as an economic and ideological threat because it underscored the difference between the U.S. and its allies and the Soviets and theirs.   

Although President Biden says there isn’t a need for another cold war, this time with China, his first face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping since Biden became president — a three-hour discussion on Monday at the G-20 in Bali — needs to be cast into the framework of history. It was far too cursory to provide more than a review of points of tension in the relationship — which are formidable. These include Xi’s threats against the U.S., its allies and Taiwan, most recently advanced at the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress; China’s tacit support for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine when China and Russia announced their “no limits” partnership in February, shortly before Russia attacked; China’s gross human rights abuses, including genocide of Muslims in Xinjiang; and its territorial expansion and coercive diplomacy in the East and South China Seas and against India.  

In addition, major trade disputes remain a source of tension for both countries — most recently for China, with the Biden administration’s Oct. 21 announcement regarding the restriction of access by Chinese companies to necessary supplies for semiconductors, hobbling Xi’s efforts for China to become self-sufficient in these technologies.

Xi’s efforts to establish parity with the U.S. — such as in his remarks noting that the world expects the U.S. and China to work with all countries to ensure global peace — were predictable and are a constant component of Xi’s ideological warfare. However brief their meeting, Biden’s language regarding the two sides “figuring out where the ‘red lines’ are” is alarming. The U.S. should know with certainty what its interests are concerning China and its global interests, how it will deter threats to those interests, and should have already conveyed to Beijing the “red lines” that it must not cross — for example, an attack on Taiwan.

The U.S. should expect that Xi is entering his own period of great activity akin to Truman’s “100 Days” in 1947. This is in part evinced in his travel schedule. Since mid-October, Xi has proceeded from the 20^th Party Congress to the Biden meeting, the full G20 meeting, an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting, and a visit to Thailand. More substantially, Xi has come off a string of successes, starting with the momentous 20^th Party Congress where he won another term in office, demonstrating that the Chinese Communist Party is Xi’s party. He fully controls the party and has provided his agenda — in essence, that China can lead the world; his communist ideology is immutable and indomitable; and the party’s principal enemy, the United States, will be defeated and Taiwan conquered.

Having built over decades a foundation for action, China under Xi will aim to realize these objectives in a period of great activity. Accordingly, the world is entering an even more dangerous time. The Biden administration must anticipate that Xi is moving to cause permanent change in the international order and to U.S. interests. It falls to the Biden presidency to provide the leadership the world seeks to check China’s ambitious agenda. Xi’s aggressive statements must be countered, so as not to embolden him or permit misperception that he has a window of opportunity to act, or that the U.S. will not support its allies such as Australia and Japan or stand with key partners such as India and Taiwan to defeat Xi’s ambitions. 

In the face of an energetic enemy who possesses a plan to defeat the U.S., the Biden administration must be equal to the great task. This is more than responding to specific U.S. vulnerabilities or attempting to target one of China’s. This requires providing a strategy, an organizing principle that guides the U.S. government and American people, and around which the U.S. and world can rally to defeat communism. 

The need is as urgent and salient as Truman’s was in the spring of 1947. Truman laid the foundation for the defeat of the Soviet Union, and Biden must do so with China. The administration must work with Congress to define and explain the struggle with the Chinese Communist Party, to deter Xi’s aggressive stance, and to move forward to defeat his goals. While Xi’s determination is firm and he is buoyed by his achievements within his party, he and the party leaders have profound vulnerabilities, including a lack of legitimacy to rule the Chinese people, upon which Biden could capitalize.

Bradley A. Thayer is director of China policy at the Center for Security Policy in Washington. He is the co-author of “Understanding the China Threat.”