Putin’s strategy to weaponize winter

As the summer war in Ukraine transitions into autumn and the harvesting of sunflowers begins, repeated Russian military setbacks in the Donbas region and Kherson Oblast are forcing Vladimir Putin to show his hand. Impatient to reverse course on the battlefield, the Russian president is signaling that Moscow fully intends to weaponize Europe’s winter energy needs — for not just Ukraine but the entire European Union. 

Under the current circumstances, though, Russian ground forces may not make it to winter. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky possesses the Valyrian steel sword; he just requires the Biden administration’s full confidence and support to wield it decisively and bury Putin’s “special military operation” in the fields of Ukraine.

Despite long-range weather forecasts to the contrary, Putin is gambling on a brutally cold and snowy winter like that of 1941, which helped derail the German army’s attack on Moscow during Operation Barbarossa. Theoretically, the Kremlin’s strategic aim is to produce an energy crisis in the dead of a European winter to break the will of NATO from continuing to militarily and economically support Kyiv. The underlying assumption is that Europeans would choose warmth and comfort over Ukraine’s independence. 

Putin couldn’t be more wrong.

The U.S., NATO and the EU need to put on their best game face and shut down this course of action now. Putin is in trouble and the alliance has a small window of opportunity to drive Russia out of Ukraine before winter sets in.

The Russian offensive largely has stalled and, according to the Institute for the Study of War, the “Ukrainian counter-offensive is making verifiable progress in the south and the east. Ukrainian forces are advancing along several axes in western Kherson Oblast and have also secured territory across the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk Oblast.” Russian ground forces are digging in; however, their supply lines cannot sustain them, and they are losing ground. Putin is still intent on capturing Donetsk, extending his deadline for that to Sept. 15, but his commanders on the ground lack sufficient combat power. 

Putin neither understands, nor appreciates, the condition of his soldiers, as evidenced by a United Kingdom Ministry of Defense intelligence report claiming a unit from the Luhansk People’s Republic delivered a “declaration outlining their refusal to be deployed as part of offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast.” The report specified that they had “done their duty securing the Luhansk Oblast” but were unwilling to fight in Donetsk. Another report said the 127th Regiment, a unit stood-up in April with men forcibly mobilized from Donetsk and Luhansk, refused to fight over a “lack of vital supplies.”

Elsewhere, Putin’s war is largely limited to holding terrain and attempting to push through referendums to join Russia as expeditiously as possible, a reality not lost upon Moldova’s prime minister, Natalia Gavrilita, who, fearing the same, acknowledged, “If a country can start an annexation war without any regard for international law, then in this sense, nobody is safe.”

The Russian 3rd Army Corps, composed mostly of minimally trained volunteer battalions, is being sent to the front to shore up defenses and buy time, but it may take until November to get them and their decrepit equipment in position. While they await a cavalry, Russia once again will turn to its artillery to keep Ukraine’s military at arm’s length and continue the reign of terror against unarmed civilians in Kharkiv, Odesa and other towns in southern Ukraine. The undermanned, ill-equipped, and shell-shocked Russian forces tasked to “die in place” cannot survive without artillery support, and if it comes down to a close fight, their courses of action are fight, flight or surrender. 

The High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems provided by the U.S. and increased range of munitions provided by Germany make the latter two courses of action more likely. Ukrainian fighters continue to suppress Russia’s artillery and maneuver to close in on an army whose will largely has been broken.

The linchpin to Putin’s “winterization” strategy, though, is energy — natural gas, and nuclear-powered electricity — and he needs a cold winter to play it. He built European dependence on Russian gas brilliantly over the past decade and is prepared to use it as leverage against NATO and EU countries supporting Ukraine. On Sept. 3, Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom announced it was shutting down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which distributes natural gas to Europe through Germany, and that “the pipeline will not resume in full until the collective West lifts sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.”

The impact will be felt throughout Europe. The EU needs a plan to offset this supply issue now, not in November or December. The plan must include reinvestment in fossil fuels and nuclear power, and a Pattonesque type of prayer, the “Weather Prayer” composed and delivered by Catholic chaplain James Hugh O’Neill at the request of Gen. George S. Patton, to stop the rains and allow his Army to defeat Adolf Hitler at the Battle of the Bulge.

Putin’s most viable course of action, the one he appears to be implementing now, is the weaponization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). It won’t win the war; it’s more akin to a desperate criminal who, cornered, grabs a hostage to negotiate this escape. The plant lost connection to its last external power line on Sept. 4 during shelling while International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors were present. Only one of its six reactors remains in operation. The ZNPP generates revenue for Ukraine, which exports electricity to Moldova, Romania, Slovakia and Poland. Ukraine recently offered to export electricity to Germany to help end its dependency on Russian energy.

Neither the German Blitz nor the Battle of Britain were able to force England to negotiate with or surrender to Hitler. Nor will Putin’s efforts to “freeze out” Europe this winter bring Ukraine or the EU to the negotiating table. Germany and Belgium recently announced measures to “get through the winter,” and Liz Truss, the United Kingdom’s new prime minister, has proclaimed, “As strong as the storm may be, I know the British people are stronger.”

Regardless, it will be an uncomfortable winter, but the people of Ukraine, the Baltic states, Poland, Moldova, Georgia and other countries once under Russia’s thumb understand the alternative. They are prepared to go the distance.

The EU must impose measures to lessen the blow of Putin’s plan to weaponize winter. Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo perhaps said it best: The EU needs to “stop the bleeding” of high energy prices. Its energy ministers must work with Ukraine, NATO and the International Atomic Energy Agency to prepare for the possibility of a nuclear disaster at the ZNPP, its containment and clean-up. 

This war is bigger than Ukraine and victory can be secured only through offensive action. The Russian military is approaching its most vulnerable moment.

Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division and the Intelligence and Security Command. He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012-14, working with NATO partners in the Black Sea and Baltics. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022. 

Mark Toth is a retired economist, historian and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing and global commerce. He is a former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis, and has lived in U.S. diplomatic and military communities around the world, including London, Tel Aviv, Augsburg and Nagoya. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL.