What will NATO do if radiation from Zaporizhzhia reaches its members?

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, has warned that if Russia were to launch a cyber-attack on Ukraine, the effects could spread to Poland — a NATO member — triggering NATO’s collective defense principle, Article 5, and leading to a larger war.

Until recently, cyber was the big threat, and NATO was slow to respond. But it has made great progress over the last decade, including establishing a Cyberspace Operations Centre and designating cyber as a new domain alongside air, land and sea. 

Now, NATO faces a new threat. 

Recent Russian attacks on and around Zaporizhzhia, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, have raised alarm about the prospects of a nuclear catastrophe, whether by intent or ‘accident.’ Such an ‘accident’ will create confusion and is an effective play from Russia’s point of view: It achieves a similar effect as using a tactical nuclear weapon, but has the benefit of plausible deniability. 

Scenarios include the nuclear plant taking a direct hit from reckless shelling, fires disrupting the power lines, or the backup generators running out of diesel. In all of these cases, it is a possibility that the cooling mechanism will fail and the nuclear core melt down, similar to what happened at Fukushima. No matter which of these scenarios might unfold, one thing is sure: Russia will blame Ukraine.

An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) “support and assistance” mission arrived at Zaporizhzhia on Thursday. They will assess the safety of the plant and its Ukrainian workers, who have been forced by the Russian occupiers to remain and continue operations. With this visit, which has long been called for by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the UN, comes some comfort that people who know what they are doing are in charge and will report their findings to a world audience. But there remains the risk that Russia will attempt to manipulate the IAEA mission or use their presence to manufacture some crisis.

In the event of an ‘accident,’ some think that the winds would blow any radiation towards Russia. Maybe so. But what if they blow in other directions, toward NATO members? What if power loss causes nuclear matter to burn through the structure and straight into the groundwater? These are plausible events. Regardless of how an accident unfolds, nuclear radiation — like cyber — knows no borders, and it is clear that large swathes of Europe’s population could be in harm’s way. 

So, what will NATO do?

NATO’s actions since Russia invaded Ukraine have been far more decisive than ever before. Examples are its swift and continuing condemnation of Russia’s actions by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg; pledges of tens of billions of dollars in aid for Ukraine — both military and economic — by individual NATO countries; and that over 2 million refugees from Ukraine have been welcomed in NATO countries. Poland is the stand-out and has revised its immigration laws to allow Ukrainians to stay for up to three years and to work without a work permit, and is educating over 400,000 Ukrainian children. Sweden and Finland, countries which have taken pride in their neutrality over many decades, have asked to join NATO and the U.S. Congress has already voted to approve this. There remains a continued focus on the cyber threat.

These actions have already had a deterrent effect on Russia, and several more could be taken now in light of the radiation threat:

• Condemn any interference with the IAEA resident mission.
• Support placing UN peacekeepers in and around the Zaporizhzhia plant as requested by Ukraine.
• Convene an emergency meeting — and maybe also a G7 meeting — to condemn Russia’s actions at the nuclear plant. 

Former Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev, who died last week, is credited with winning the Cold War, and proposing to then U.S. President Ronald Reagan that both countries give up their nuclear weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin brought red roses and paid his respects (live on TV) to the former leader as he lay in an open coffin at the hospital where he died. Despite the fact that they were lifelong ideological enemies, Putin’s gesture (though he skipped the funeral) offers some evidence that he wants NATO and the West, where Gorbachev was a hero, to see his humanity. Let’s hope we are not entering a new Cold War with Russia or China, but wouldn’t it be wonderful if one day historians credit NATO with heading it off?

Jane Harman is distinguished fellow and president emerita of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. She served nine terms in Congress as a Democratic representative from California and was ranking member on the House Intelligence Committee. She is author of “Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe.” Follow her on Twitter @JaneHarmanCA