Is China sparking stealth war in the air?

On May 26, a high-performance Chinese fighter jet engaged in a “dangerous maneuver,” flying close to an Australian Royal Air Force (RAAF) reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace in the South China Sea region. 

The Australian plane was, according to the Australian Department of Defense, undertaking “routine maritime surveillance activity.”  

The Chinese J-16 “accelerated and cut across the nose of the P-8, settling in front of the P-8 at very close distance” said Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles on Sunday, as Canberra publicly disclosed the incident for the first time. “At that moment, it then released a bundle of chaff, which contains small pieces of aluminum, some of which were ingested into the engine of the P-8 aircraft.” The Chinese jet also fired flares at about the same time as releasing the chaff, metal-coated filament used to confuse radar. 

This was perhaps the first time any military had used chaff and flares in this manner. 

The Australian Poseidon P-8, a modified Boeing 737, was able to return safely to base. 

China has engaged in a series of troubling intercepts of aircraft in recent months. On Feb. 17, a Chinese naval vessel “illuminated” a RAAF P-8 with a laser over the Arafura Sea, which separates Australia from New Guinea. Canberra labeled the action a “serious safety incident.” As the Australian Defense Force said in a statement, “Acts like this have the potential to endanger lives.” 

China has on multiple occasions lasered aircraft in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In 2018, its military “lit up” a U.S. Air Force C-130 from China’s only official offshore military base, in Djibouti. The action injured two pilots, who were eventually able to land their plane.  

Last week, Canada complained of “unprofessional” Chinese air maneuvers that put its crews at risk as they participated in surveillance flights monitoring violations of North Korea sanctions. Canadian craft have surveilled Chinese vessels transferring oil on the high seas in violation of United Nations prohibitions. China’s intercepts, Ottawa said, were becoming more frequent. 

The incidents this year evoke the April 1, 2001 collision of a Chinese F-8 fighter jet and a propeller-driven U.S. Navy EP-3 over international water. The incident, caused when the Chinese jet clipped the wing of the slow-moving reconnaissance craft, resulted in the death of the fighter pilot. The American plane made an emergency landing at a Chinese base on Hainan Island.  

In clear violations of American sovereignty, the Chinese stripped the plane of its electronic equipment and held the crew of 24 for 11 days.  

The U.S., to obtain a return of the aircraft and crew, issued what amounted to an apology and offered a ransom. Beijing refused the payment as too little. 

Why did China intercept the RAAF P-8 last month? James Fanell of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy suggested in an email that Beijing wanted to test the new Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese.  

Richard Fisher, senior fellow of the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center, pointed out in an e-mail that Chinese leaders like “to elevate popular fears of conflict with China to undermine American alliances in the region.” China, he also stated, would have obtained another “intelligence bonanza” if the People’s Liberation Army had forced the P-8 to land at a Chinese base. 

Whatever the reason, there is a pattern of Beijing, with dangerous air and sea intercepts, creating crises it thinks it can manage. 

China thinks it can manage dangerous encounters, I believe, because the U.S. and its partners do not impose costs for increasingly provocative behavior. Perhaps the pattern was set by Washington’s willingness to pay the Chinese for the return of the EP-3 and its crew. After that incident, the U.S. did not even publicly disclose Chinese intercepts of its aircraft and ships. Now, at least American and Allied officials release statements.  

At some point, targeted countries will have to do more than issue words. The “chafing” of the RAAF P-8 could have been catastrophic. 

“Chaff clouds ingested into the P-8’s two engines could have caused an inflight emergency and the deaths of the aircrew,” Fanell, also a former U.S. Navy captain who served as director of Intelligence and Information Operations at the U.S. Pacific Fleet, said. 

China’s May 26 act was intentional and of the type likely to damage the P-8, which is in fact what happened. Given the potential consequences, China’s actions constituted an act of war, as Fanell mentioned.   

“War?” China’s behavior is becoming far more dangerous, an indication that deterrence is breaking down, and Chinese leaders, both civilian and military, now think they can do anything they want. 

 The world, therefore, is entering an especially perilous era.   

Gordon G. Chang is the author of “The Coming Collapse of China.” Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang.