One of the most pressing questions of the 2024 presidential election has long been what will be the impact of the 88 felony charges spanning four different trials impact former president and GOP candidate Donald Trump.
Moreover, if Trump was found guilty in any — or all — of his trials, would voters feel comfortable electing a president who was also a convicted felon?
New polling by our firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, indicates that thus far, the ongoing trials have had virtually no impact on the former president’s standing with voters nationally.
Even if Trump were forced to spend the majority of his time between now and election day off the campaign trail and in courtrooms, only 22 percent of registered voters say they would be less likely to vote for the former president, while one-quarter of voters actually said they would be more likely to vote for Trump should he be forced to spend much of his time in court.
Notably, a 53 percent majority is unmoved by the Trump trials, underscoring that keeping Trump in court and off the trail likely will not be the decisive factor some had presumed.
In that same vein, Schoen Cooperman Research’s poll underscores the very real chance that the indictments against Trump actually benefit the former president by allowing him to reprise a role that he thrives in — playing a political martyr.
Indeed, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether or not the indictments facing Trump are legitimate or are politically motivated.
A 47 percent plurality of voters say the indictments are legally sound, yet a sizable 40 percent say they are political persecution. A similar 48 percent say that Trump did something wrong and he should be prosecuted, while 39 percent say that either Trump did something wrong but should not be prosecuted (13 percent) or that Trump did nothing wrong (26 percent).
However, one-half (50 percent) of voters agree that “The indictments against Donald Trump are a form of election interference, being carried out by liberal prosecutors, the Biden administration, and the Justice Department.”
Moreover, a virtually identical 49 percent of voters agree that Donald Trump is a victim of political persecution by the Biden administration, which is targeting its political rival, as is done in Third World Countries. And a plurality (45 percent) of registered voters believe the indictments are “Democrats’ latest plan to steal the 2024 election.”
To be sure, part of the uncertainty and muted impact of Trump’s trials on his election chances is almost certainly due to the fact that the one trial currently underway — the New York City “hush money” case — is by far the least politically damaging to the former president.
Unlike the trials dealing with Trump’s alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election, voter interference in Georgia, or even potential mishandling of classified information in Florida, the New York City case was always considered the one least likely to matter to voters.
It relies on an untested application of complex accounting laws, lacks the political and national security heft of the other cases and, importantly, given the location in solid blue New York City could — and has been — painted as being driven by an overtly political district attorney.
Indeed, even if Trump were to be found guilty in this trial related to falsifying business records and hush money payments made to the porn actress Stormy Daniels, our polling found that voters are largely split on how it would impact their vote, with 27 percent more likely to vote for Trump, 32 percent less likely, and another 32 percent saying it would have no impact on their vote.
That this case is likely the only one that will produce a verdict before the 2024 election is a significant gift to Trump, particularly if prosecutors are unable to convince the entire jury of Trump’s guilt. Even a hung jury would push any retrial until after the election, and Trump would endlessly claim, or brag, that even in the most liberal of cities, a jury didn’t find him guilty.
To that end, our finding that large pluralities or outright majorities of Americans perceive these indictments as politically motivated should be a warning sign to Democrats.
Both Donald Trump in 2020, and former President Bill Clinton in 1998, saw their approval numbers rise during impeachments considered heavily partisan. In fact, both Trump and Clinton hit the highest approval ratings of their term amid their respective impeachments, per NBC News tracking polls.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether or not the indictments Trump faces, or a potential conviction, will weigh on voters more as November approaches. If Trump is actually convicted, even in the New York City case that is considered to be least important to voters, a sufficient number of voters could ultimately decide that it is disqualifying.
That being said, as this new SCR poll makes clear, Trump’s legal woes have not had the negative impact many had predicted — and Democrats may have hoped.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”