When Olaf Scholz became Chancellor of Germany in December, his Social Democrats (SPD) and two coalition partners – the Greens and liberal Free Democrats (FDP) – came into government with the slogan mehr Fortschritt wagen or “dare to make more progress.” Many observers expected some policy shifts after 16 years of government led by Angela Merkel and her Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), but most believed that the Scholz-led government would not introduce ground-breaking changes. The assumption was that the new government would address the ongoing COVID pandemic and Germany’s economic recovery as well as fulfill campaign promises related to climate change, housing and the minimum wage.
However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a profound impact on Scholz’s first 100 days in office. We have seen a monumental shift — a Zeitenwende — that no one could have imagined a month ago and which has implications for how Germany and the United States work together to meet common challenges.
German leadership — and these policy shifts — are critical for the United States. During Scholz’s visit to the U.S. in February, President Biden stated, “There is no issue of global importance where Germany and the United States are not working together strength-to-strength and applying and amplifying our efforts together.” The nations are truly indispensable partners and the unity and collaboration regarding sanctions and other efforts to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrate the significance of this relationship.
Understandably, the first few weeks of the Scholz-led coalition government were focused on addressing the ongoing pandemic and continued debates about the public health measures the government should undertake, mainly whether to implement a vaccination mandate or to continue with measures requiring people to be vaccinated, tested, or recovered to enter different venues and public transportation. Ultimately, no vaccine mandate was introduced and — although Germany continues to see an uptick in COVID cases averaging more than 200,000 new cases daily — health measures are being relaxed.
COVID ceded center stage in late January as concerns were raised about the increasing Russian military build-up along the border of Ukraine. Growing tensions with Russia led to calls for German leadership and action on Nord Stream 2. In early February, inconsistent and disparate messaging from politicians in the governing coalition about Germany’s positions caused many to ask, “Where’s Olaf?” On the world stage, Germany was being called an “unreliable partner” and described as the weak link in the western alliance.
In the mid-February visit, Scholz and President Joe Biden discussed the unfolding crisis and the transatlantic coordination of diplomatic efforts and deterrence measures to prevent a further Russian incursion into Ukraine. Despite continued criticism for threatening to halt Nord Stream 2 as a possible response to Russian aggression, Scholz’s image as a leader began to rebound — and it appeared Berlin was more aligned with Washington than previously thought.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Scholz’s speech before a special session of the Bundestag was a tectonic shift: He provided a blueprint for a new German foreign and security policy that has upended decades of policy parameters.
Recognizing the geopolitical implications, Scholz put an end to the debate over Nord Stream 2 by stating it would not go online. On defense policy, the new government committed to supplying weapons to Kyiv to help the Ukrainians defend themselves, immediately investing more than $110 billion (100 billion euros) in the Bundeswehr to improve Germany’s defense capabilities, permanently increasing the annual defense budget above 2 percent of GDP, and even allowing the German armed services to arm their drones. All of these measures were unimaginable just weeks ago.
On energy and climate policy, the coalition government stated that by 2030, 80 percent of Germany’s electricity should come from renewables, 50 percent of heating should be climate neutral and the phase-out of nuclear energy and coal should be completed by 2022 and 2030, respectively. The war in Ukraine has sparked a debate over Germany’s energy dependence on Russia. The German government has authorized the construction of two liquefied-natural-gas terminals and announced other measures to reduce the country’s dependency on Russian gas. Berlin is likely to postpone the phase-out of coal and might even consider postponing the shutdown of its remaining nuclear reactors. Germany’s energy policy will become even more of a priority that may include short-term pain but better longer-term success at achieving Germany’s climate goals.
On foreign policy, it appeared that the new government would continue Germany’s attempt to forge a path between rivalry and cooperation with autocratic governments in Russia and China, given its strong business and economic interests in those countries. The invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s support of the many severe economic and banking sanctions on Russia make clear that this will not continue in the future.
Although COVID and the war in Ukraine have dominated attention, the new government has also moved forward on the domestic front. For example, a minimum wage of 12 euros an hour has been introduced. The government is also working to fulfill campaign promises to address climate change and modernize Germany’s digital infrastructure. One needs to wonder how the policy pivots and financial commitments regarding defense and energy might impact other domestic priorities such as investments in housing and physical infrastructure.
The new German government faced a steep learning curve and a rather underwhelming start, but we have already seen a monumental shift. In his speech to the Bundestag, Olaf Scholz proclaimed that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “marks an historic turning point in the history of our continent.”
While it may not have been of his choosing, the war and its many ripple effects have had a profound impact on Olaf Scholz, the Social Democrats, the new government and Germany as a whole. Just 100 days into office, it will be fascinating to see how Scholz and the three-way traffic light coalition will fulfill its promises, meet its commitments and navigate the choppy waters ahead.
Rob Fenstermacher (@Xchangemacher) is chief content officer and Steven E. Sokol (@sesokol) is president of the American Council on Germany (@ACG_USA) in New York. Both authors have more than 25 years of experience working to promote German-American relations.