The risks and implications of China and Russia’s unholy alliance

As Russia continues massing troops and capabilities on the Ukrainian border — an invasion has been described as imminent by the United States — a disquietingly close partnership has emerged between two authoritarian leaders: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.  

The two leaders met in Beijing on Feb. 4., marking the most prominent display of unity between Russia and China in years. The summit led to the release of a lengthy joint statement, which announced a new closeness between their two countries, criticized the United States, and called for a “redistribution of power in the world.”  

Though Russia and China continue to have many differing economic, geopolitical and security interests, the newfangled partnership between Putin and Xi signals that they see an unprecedented opening to establish a new world order — one in which America’s global supremacy has receded, and autocratic governments can fill the void.  

Indeed, the relationship between Putin and Xi is best described as an “alliance of autocracies,” as put by Steven Lee Myers, The New York Times’ Beijing bureau chief. In this sense, the two leaders are united by their shared contempt for human rights and freedoms, disregard for fair elections and opposition to all nations having a right to self-determination.  

Both believe that, as world powers, they should be able to destabilize and lay claim to weaker countries that they consider to be within their sphere of influence — Ukraine for Russia and Taiwan for China — even though both Ukraine and Taiwan have in their own ways strived for independence and democracy.  

Consequently, this flourishing partnership between two of the most powerful autocracies poses an active and increasing threat to the world economy, the endurance of democratic values around the globe and to human rights everywhere.  

To that end, the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is just one battle within a grander global war already underway: the war between democracy versus autocracy. Regrettably, the United States — once the standard-bearer of democracy — has been engaging in this war passively, rather than actively, for many years.  

The isolationist foreign policy of the Trump administration damaged our relationships with our NATO allies — partnerships that are critical to the preservation of global democracy. Further, Donald Trump’s deference to Putin and his inability to acknowledge that Russia meddled in the 2016 election sewed divisions internally and gave the impression externally that America’s democracy was on the decline. 

And following the Biden administration’s chaotic withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, our adversaries used the embarrassing fiasco to paint America as a weak and unreliable international partner and to discredit our broader efforts to spread democracy globally. 

To be sure, this corrosion of America’s dominance on the international stage has emboldened authoritarians like Putin and Xi to expand their influence — with Russia now on the verge of invading Ukraine, and China taking a more aggressive posture vis-à-vis Taiwan and Hong Kong. Moreover, both world powers now perceive America to be so weak that they have forged what is effectively an anti-Western and anti-America alliance.  

It’s clear that the Russia-China partnership — which I have written about extensively in two prior books, “The Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War and Americas Crisis,” and “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise, America in Retreat” — necessitates much more active and stronger involvement from the U.S. in protecting democracy in Asia, in Europe and around the world.  

This must begin with President Biden assuming a more decisive and forceful posture in defending Ukraine. The president has said publicly that “there is not going to be any American forces moving into Ukraine” to defend the country’s sovereignty, and also previously suggested that a “minor incursion” might not provoke as strong of a response from the West.  

The president’s political calculus is clearly to proceed with caution when it comes to pledging to send U.S. forces abroad, given the domestic and international humiliation he faced following the Afghanistan debacle.   

By pledging to only deploy troops to surrounding NATO-member states — but not to Ukraine — Biden is effectively telling Putin that the U.S., as the leader of NATO, won’t involve itself militaristically beyond NATO’s boundaries. Put another way, Biden is giving Putin the reassurance he needs to invade Ukraine and continue expanding Russia’s sphere of influence in the region.   

At the same time, Biden is also signaling to Xi that the U.S. would not come to Taiwan’s defense militaristically — even though Biden has rhetorically pledged support for Taiwan — if mainland China continues taking aggressive action in the South China Sea and near Taiwan’s airspace.  

Up to this point, the Biden administration has not articulated a plan of action to counter China. The president’s ostensibly tough rhetoric — on the Chinese Communist Party’s aggression toward Taiwan, their undemocratic actions to quell opposition in Hong Kong and their human rights abuses — has not been met with comparable action.   

Positively though, U.S. aircraft carriers did enter the South China Sea on Jan. 23 to begin operations aimed at strengthening maritime combat readiness amid heightened tensions between Taiwan and mainland China.  

That being said, especially after the botched withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, if Russia invades Ukraine in any capacity and the U.S. does not retaliate with a forceful and sufficiently decisive response, the CCP will be emboldened to take aggressive action against Taiwan.  

Further, if Taiwan feels that the United States — their most prominent and steadfast supporter of the island’s independence — is an unreliable international partner, Taiwan may be more willing to accept the terms of mainland China’s rule out of fear.  

Ultimately, the U.S. must begin waging a more forceful defense of democratic values in Ukraine, Taiwan, and around the world.   

In this war — the war between democracy versus autocracy — the world order is on the line, freedom is on the line, and human rights everywhere are on the line.  

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to former President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. He is the author of “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”