With Afghanistan left in limbo, can the global South trust the West?

Another war has come to an end and we heard another conceding speech from a U.S. president in stark contrast to what was promised at the start of the war. Then-former Vice President Biden’s February 2020 interview on Face the Nation is making rounds on social media as U.S. troops depart Bagram airbase in Afghanistan. Biden was asked, “Don’t you bear some responsibility for the outcome if the Taliban ends up back in control?” and was quick to respond, “No I don’t.”

With more than two thousand American lives and 35,000 to 40,000 Afghan civilian lives lost fighting the Taliban, Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups over the 20-year-old war, the situation on ground zero has not changed much, while the promises and commitments of American politicians have. Twenty years later, politicians in D.C. lament that “War in Afghanistan was never meant to be a multigenerational undertaking.” These epiphanies and realizations seem to dawn only after years of war and the deaths of thousands of people. From Vietnam, to Cambodia to Iraq and to present day Afghanistan, U.S. officials regret invasions and the U.S. bears no responsibility once the damage has been done. 

Biden often proudly boasts that “America is back.” To billions in the global South that are silently observing his actions and to those even with a little knowledge of world history, that doesn’t bring comfort, but sends a chill down the spine. To them it could beg the question: “Where will they go next?” Would it be Iran? Or China? Or Venezuela? Or the Biden administration’s new found interest in sub-Saharan Africa? 

To address the trust deficit, the U.S. and Western nations should not leave countries in limbo. In the case of Afghanistan, a political solution addressing Pakistan’s cross-border export of terror could have significantly saved lives and solved a never-ending war. After 20 years in the region, Biden should finally wake up and smell the coffee and take decisive political and economic action on Pakistan — not necessarily as a parting gift to Afghanistan, but as the last arrow in the U.S. quiver. Economic action targeted toward Pakistan may not be a silver bullet, but will have a significant impact on the Taliban’s efforts to overthrow the democratically led Afghan government. 

Earlier this year at the G-7 leaders summit, Biden, along with his counterparts of the world’s seven wealthiest democracies, introduced the “Build Back Better World” initiative as an alternative infrastructure building initiative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. 

Without providing any concrete framework or structure, the White House suggested it would “provide a transparent infrastructure partnership to help narrow the $40 trillion needed by developing nations by 2035.” This lack of clarity will not pose a challenge to the highly organized and structured Belt and Road Initiative that runs across five continents. Furthermore, on multiple occasions, including the Face the Nation interview, Biden has expressed his desire to fix the issues at home before he goes on to fix issues abroad. This blow-hot-blow-cold tone does not demonstrate true desires to provide quality infrastructure for the global South. It reeks of the same unfulfilled U.S. promises as building democracy and promoting women’s rights in Afghanistan.  

As Song Wei, associate research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation puts it, “Taking the African countries as an example, they have been facing an annual infrastructure investment shortfall of $108 billion. The shortfall has long become a major barrier for the development of the continent, and why didn’t the G7 realize the demand earlier?” 

To signal a true change in American foreign policy, there are two measures the Biden administration and the leaders of the Western world can take. 

One, fix issues at home. Not simply infrastructure or economic concerns, but the ethnic and racial disparities that prevail in American and Western society. It could be in the form of standing on the side of protestors pulling down statues of colonizers such as Cecil Rhodes, King Leopold and others in Europe or Confederate leaders in the United States. Or, it could be police reform. Without fixing social issues at home, the West would be on weak moral high ground to build societies in the global South. 

Two, provide equal seating to nations from the global South to address issues in the developing world. The G-7 should expand to democracies of the global South, countries such as India in Asia, South Africa in Africa and Brazil in South America. Equality in the context of a seat at the table would imply respecting the values of different cultures and non-interference in their policies of strategic autonomy.  

If the Western world can change its behavior and demonstrate true intentions, it has a shot at holding onto its leadership mantle. If not, in the 21st Century there are others who would be happy to take the mantle of leadership, as was witnessed with China and India’s vaccine diplomacy during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Akhil Ramesh is a non-resident Vasey fellow at the Pacific Forum. He has worked with risk consulting firms, think tanks and in the blockchain industry in the United States, India and in the Philippines. His analysis has been published in The South China Morning Post, The Diplomat, Asia Times and the Jerusalem Post. Follow him on Twitter: @akhil_oldsoul