Keeping US troops in Iraq won’t solve the chaos there

More than a dozen protesters were killed in Iraq last week — pushing the total to over 600 since anti-government protests began last October. The movement has already resulted in the resignation of the prime minister and shows no signs of ending. This continued political instability and division in Iraq underscores why it is crucial to withdraw American military personnel before any more lose their lives in Iraqi chaos. We’ve seen this script play out before.

It is by now well-chronicled that the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 was based on shockingly bad intelligence. Bush administration officials routinely claimed Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and would use them against America if we didn’t act. As error-ridden, the decision to invade was, our failure to withdraw once the mistake had been made plain began a vicious cycle that has yet to be broken.

With Saddam deposed, the Bush administration could have worked with the existing Iraqi military to maintain public order and set the conditions for the Iraqi people to form a new government. The U.S. military could then have withdrawn beginning in late 2003. Instead, some in Washington wanted to try remaking Iraq in America’s image.

First, they disbanded the Iraqi army, eradicated the core of the government, and tried to build new structures from scratch — while picking political winners and losers, thus making enemies of the losing Sunni portion of the population. The result was hardly surprising: the formation of a Sunni-led insurgency months later.

By 2005 it became clear the insurgency was overwhelming America’s military forces and the U.S. casualty rate skyrocketed. Again, Washington had a chance to acknowledge the futility of forcing Iraq into an American image and could have taken the course of action recommended by prudent senior U.S. military leaders who urged a substantial reduction of the occupation. Instead, the administration doubled down on the error and surged 20,000 more troops to Baghdad.

Bush admitted in a January 2007 speech that we weren’t winning the war. He admitted surprise that we were losing the war because the Iraqi elections, “of 2005 were a stunning achievement. We thought that these elections would bring the Iraqis together.” But in 2006, he lamented, “the opposite happened. The violence in Iraq — particularly in Baghdad — overwhelmed the political gains the Iraqis had made.”

But the end state laid out by the president had no more chance at success than the one he said had failed. Victory in Iraq, he explained, “will bring something new in the Arab world — a functioning democracy that polices its territory, upholds the rule of law, respects fundamental human liberties, and answers to its people.” Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, Bush confidently asserted, “has pledged that political or sectarian interference will not be tolerated.”

The intent was to provide Maliki “breathing space,” which would allow him to reconcile with his political adversaries to create a stable democracy — and that illumined one of the enduring failures of our military operations in Iraq to date: success was dependent on political actors beyond the control or even influence of U.S. military operations.

Instead of reconciling with his adversaries, Maliki — a Shia — used the “breathing space” to remove his Sunni political opponents from key government positions. Contrary to what many believe, it was Maliki’s purge of key Sunni leaders that was a key factor in the 2014 rise of ISIS, not the withdrawal of American troops. In the two years leading up to the rise of ISIS in Iraq, Maliki’s mistreatment of the Sunnis caused months of anti-government protests in Iraq — much like those in the country today.

Burgeoning protests against government corruption are happening almost daily in cities throughout Iraq. American troops in Iraq can no more solve Baghdad’s political chaos today than they could in 2003, 2007, or 2014. Already we have sacrificed the blood of thousands of Americans and trillions of dollars trying to achieve the unattainable. It is time that the unbroken series of failures comes to an end.

Especially with the increased threat to our troops from Shia militias angry over the killing of Qassem Soleimani, it is time to acknowledge the limits of military power to solve political problems and withdraw all American troops from Iraq.

Keeping U.S. troops there to buy more time for Iraq to get its act together will continue to be a never-ending, never-succeeding failure. We should not wait for one more American to die in Iraq. It is time to withdraw — now.

Daniel L. Davis is a senior fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who retired in 2015 after 21 years, including four combat deployments. Follow him @DanielLDavis1.