5 observations after Biden’s Gaza cease-fire proposal

Since the Hamas massacres of Oct. 7, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has studiously avoided any consideration of what the “day after” would look like in Gaza — much to the consternation of the United States, his war cabinet and putative Arab allies such as Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

On May 15, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant publicly chastised Netanyahu on Israeli television for his failure to plan and warned that Israeli military control of Gaza was untenable. Three days later, war cabinet member Benny Gantz set a deadline of June 8 for Netanyahu to make decisions about what the “day after” will look like in Gaza or his party would leave the coalition. Gantz is a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff and leader of the National Unity party. For the past two weeks, leading opposition parties prepared no-confidence motions hoping to force new elections, but did not file them.

Then, all of a sudden, on May 30, Friday afternoon — Shabbat already in Israel — President Joe Biden announced an “Israeli” cease-fire proposal and said Hamas should take it.

Though the proposal intimates that Hamas would not remain in power and could not re-arm, the terrorist group’s initial reaction was “positive.” Netanyahu released a statement that said nothing changed in the Israeli position — though senior Netanyahu advisors acknowledged that the plan was Israel’s and approved by the war cabinet — and far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich threatened to leave the governing coalition, as did several members of Netanyahu’s Likud party.

New Hope, a right-wing but anti-Netanyahu party, announced its opposition to the Biden proposal. Over 120,000 people demonstrated in Tel Aviv Saturday night in support of the proposal, with similar protests in Jerusalem and elsewhere.

Here are five observations on this complex and fluid situation:

1. Biden will have to work hard to ensure that Netanyahu will support his and Israel’s own proposal, and get Hamas to agree. Biden himself noted that details still needed to be negotiated — which means a final agreement is some time away. Historically, Netanyahu’s personal interests have prevailed over Israel’s national interests. This time, perhaps they will coalesce — but that is yet to be seen.

2. If the Biden proposal reaches the Knesset, the major opposition parties — Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, the Labor Party (newly led by former General Yair Golan) and the two Arab parties — will temporarily provide Netanyahu a safety net and support the return of the hostages and a cease-fire. If all the Israeli hard-right parties (in and out of the coalition) and the ultra-Orthodox parties oppose a deal, the opposition parties can approve the Biden proposal if Netanyahu can get at least half his Likud party to vote yes. That would, however, mean no governing coalition — a situation Netanyahu cannot countenance and will reject.

3. Netanyahu’s anticipated speech to a joint session of Congress was concocted by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and Netanyahu prior to the Biden proposal and confirmed immediately after the proposal was announced to raise Netanyahu’s political standing in Israel. To be perfectly clear, the speech is about Netanyahu, not Israel. If the speech takes place before an agreement on the Biden proposal, ironically, it may be used by Netanyahu to argue against the deal.

4. The Biden proposal, if approved by Israel, would likely enable Netanyahu to avoid the threat of new elections until late fall or possibly 2025, and nullified any political bump Gantz might have received by leaving the coalition (which he won’t do if the proposal is approved).

5. By law, Israeli elections are supposed to be held within five months of the passage of a no-confidence vote. If the government falls by the last week in June, elections could be held in September. If the government falls later than that, elections will not take place until at least November, because of the Jewish High Holidays.

In sum, expect no new elections in Israel and Netanyahu remaining prime minister in the near term. In a classic Middle East twist, Israel may well be caught in a nightmare of Hamas accepting the Israeli/Biden proposal and Netanyahu rejecting it.

Jonathan D. Strum is an international lawyer and businessman based in Washington and the Middle East. From 1991 to 2005, he was an adjunct professor teaching a course called “The Israeli Legal System” at Georgetown University Law Center.