A game-changing election is heating up — and it isn’t in the US 

As Mexico prepares for its elections next week, our neighbor to the south is experiencing extreme heat, a shortage of water, and rampant, unprecedented violence, just as democracy both in Mexico and America is on the line.  

That is the definition of a crisis — or an opportunity, depending on the outcome. 

On June 2, Mexican voters will decide not only the country’s president, but its congress, governors and local legislators. The results could shape the future of America’s largest trading partner for at least the next six years. 

Running for the top job is Claudia Sheinbaum, the government-backed front-runner and former mayor of Mexico City. If she wins, she would be the first female Jewish president of Mexico. 

For some, Sheinbaum would be a continuation of the Lopez Obrador policies; because of this, she has the U.S. concerned about hostility to foreign investments in energy. (Sheinbaum has also referenced support for Venezuela, which the U.S. has heavily sanctioned.) 

Also running is Xochitl Galvez, an opposition senator. A third candidate, Jorge Alvarez Maynez, is way behind. 

Meanwhile, as the election nears, violence in Mexico has worsened. 

At least 12 people were found murdered in Acapulco in April, including six bodies dumped near a market in Mexico’s southern state of Chiapas. And this month, a mayoral candidate was killed with five others, just days after an apparent gang shoot-out in which 11 people died.  

Criminal groups are fighting to control territory for moving drugs and migrants, and political violence is spiraling out of control. According to Integralia, a political firm, around 200 public servants, politicians and candidates have been murdered or threatened in the runup to the elections across the entire political spectrum. 

Gender-based political violence has risen along with the advancement of female candidates, who face discrimination and abuse. Gisela Gaytan, one of the candidates killed, was running for mayor in Guanajuato, in central Mexico. She was gunned down on the first day of her campaign at the age of 37. 

In Chiapas, the murder rate increased 60 percent in the first three months of the year. 

And there is the ongoing problem of the “disappeared” — the more than 100,000 people who have literally vanished since 2006. 

Compounding the political violence in Mexico is climate change, which has brought extreme heat and winds and even hail.  

Recently a stage in northern Mexico collapsed as strong winds whipped through a local campaign rally, causing the deaths of nine people. 

Climatologists say there is a “heat dome” over Mexico and parts of Central America because of a system of strong high pressure centered over the region. Mantled howler monkeys are literally falling out of trees in the hundreds due to dehydration, unable to get nutrients from dried up leaves and ponds. 

Mexico’s water systems are in urgent need of repair, with reports that taps connected to the main water system could simply run dry by the end of June — a result of poor water management, drought and heat. 

Extreme heat can lead to extreme violence, according to recent studies. Scientists believe crime rates go up in the summer months due to heat exhaustion and aggression — not a good combination during an already heated election period. 

Finally, with immigration a central issue for Americans and Mexicans, the upcoming presidential elections in both countries could have many ramifications. Polls show that immigration remains a top concern, and it is expected that U.S. President Joe Biden will issue an executive action in the coming weeks to give him added authority to shut down the borders in order to rein in illegal immigration and suspend asylum processing.    

The issue of securing the border will be part of upcoming debates between President Biden and former President Trump later this month. Trump has made harsh comments about immigrants from Mexico, and suggested he would send troops to the border.  

For now, all eyes are focused on Mexico and its elections in June. Long gone are the days when we can ignore events outside our country, given the economic, social, and political interconnectedness of our world today. Let’s hope Mexico can rise to the challenges it faces and keep its economy — and democracy — alive. 

Tara D. Sonenshine is the former U.S. undersecretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs and is a senior nonresident fellow at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.