US-China tensions have gone medieval and could regress further

“The most important characteristic of the world is, in a word: chaos. This trend appears likely to continue,” Chinese leader Xi Jinping said in early 2021. 

This observation is in line with a recent report by the U.S. think tank the Rand Corporation, which describes the current state of world affairs as neomedieval based on trends that have strong similarities to the Middle Ages:

• Weakening states: governments struggle to maintain legitimacy as they struggle to uphold levels of prosperity, services, security and opportunities for their citizens.
• Fragmenting societies: national unity is undermined by polarization, discontent and culture wars.
• Unbalanced economies: growth will increasingly be concentrated in a few sectors, and this will exacerbate problems of entrenched inequality and stagnant social mobility.
• Ubiquitous threats: the proliferation of risks such as natural disasters, pandemics, violent non-state actors and war creates a sense of permanent threat.
• Informalization of warfare: Armed forces increasingly consist of professional troops supplemented by private security companies, mercenaries and armed militias. Older combat methods are being revived, as we have seen in the trench warfare in the Ukraine.

In China, inequality is also rising and economic growth is slowing. Leaders increasingly rely on repression; China’s internal security budget has exceeded its defense budget for more than a decade.

Because of this state of affairs, China and the U.S. do not seem to be in a position to engage in a full battle with each other any time soon. The weaknesses of the two states and the internal and international challenges they face make it too risky to enter into a direct conflict. Also, rulers cannot assume that citizens will rally behind a war effort that requires real and sustained sacrifices.

The result is likely to be a protracted, low-intensity conflict, rather than an all-out war. This is not to say that we will not see an intense escalation. For example, a Chinese blockade of Taiwan is not out of the realm of realistic scenarios. In all likelihood, however, the Sino-American battle will be fought in the grey areas of cyberspace and economic issues.

Peak China

Some are convinced that China is already at or past its peak. This is too premature a conclusion. And even if China stagnates, it is still an immense power that will shape the course of the world in the coming decades, especially if America is terminally ill, as Xi Jinping and others in the Chinese elite seem to believe.

Supporters of the peak China theory base their conclusion on weakening economic growth, the crisis in the property sector, outbound capital flows and unrest within the defense establishment.

The above problems are serious, but certainly do not mean that the situation will only get worse. First, economic power does not equal geopolitical power. So even if China were to continue to struggle economically, this would not necessarily mean that its role on the world stage is waning. 

In any case, Xi will show no sign of taking a step back. In 2021, he said China is closer to the spotlight of the world stage than it has ever been and is in the process of its rebirth. According to China’s leader “The East is rising and the West is waning.”

Moreover, supposed signs of weakness do not have to mean vulnerability. Xi has increasingly made himself and the Chinese Communist Party the center of politics, the economy and society and has neutralized potential competing forces. And the ease with which Xi sidelined confidants in defense and foreign affairs departments may be a sign of strength rather than vulnerability.

Also, the economic weakening seems to be partly a conscious choice. The old growth boosters — property, infrastructure and processing trade — will only make China more vulnerable if it continues to rely too much on these elements. Beijing therefore chooses to shift its focus to green energy, EVs and batteries and accepts that this means it must initially suffer some pain. 

As Evan S. Medeiros writes in Foreign Affairs, “Xi has embraced austerity and tried to revive the spirit of sacrifice, self-reliance, and egalitarianism.”

It should not be forgotten that while China may be swallowing some bitter pills, it is a superpower in many fields whose advance is not yet over:

• China is the world’s largest exporter and creditor.
• It leads the way in industries that will be essential in the coming decades, such as EVs and batteries.
• It is the leading player in the market for rare earths and other essential commodities.
• It has one of the largest, most advanced armies in the world, and it conducts joint exercises with more and more countries and provides training to a growing number of states.
• It has more embassies and consulates than America.
• CNN’s Chinese counterpart has twice as many foreign bureaus as CNN, and China’s news agency Xinhua has 180 offices worldwide. 
• China is anchoring itself ever more firmly on the international diplomatic, economic and military world stage through the Belt and Road, Global Development, Global Security and Global Civilization Initiatives.
• The Belt and Road Initiative is firmly embedded in United Nations structures and roughly 150 countries have joined it. For example, Huawei supplies 70 percent of all 4G technology in Africa.
• The Global Development Initiative targets development in a broad sense (poverty, climate policy, healthcare, food security) with over 50 projects and support from over 70 countries.
• According to Beijing, the Global Security Initiative aims to prevent a Cold War mentality, bloc formation and unilateralism and, at least in words, has the support of more than 100 countries and international organizations.
• The Global Civilization Initiative has been the least successful so far. This initiative argues that different cultures and varying levels of prosperity also call for a variety of political and economic models.

Head-on collision?

In the U.S., many are getting restless in the neomedieval climate, with an immensely strong China despite all its difficulties. China is one of the few dossiers on which Democrats and Republicans can still regularly find common ground. However, this only goes so far. 

Within the GOP, there are quite a few voices claiming that despite a fairly hardline China policy, the Biden administration is still far too soft on Beijing.

Hardliners argue that America must first ramp up tensions by taking a harder line against the CCP to bring about more stability and calm in the longer term. This includes sharply increasing defense spending, restoring U.S. primacy in Asia and putting more American troops within firing range of China. 

But it also includes removing China’s permanent normal trade relations status and implementing an even more protectionist policy. They also believe U.S. society as a whole should wake up to the fact that China is an enemy, which would prompt Americans to stop using TikTok altogether, for example.

Given the above, tensions between China and the U.S. are likely to increase rather than decrease and turn into a decades-long struggle. And not just if Trump wins the election and Republicans take over Congress. 

Biden recently said: “We don’t let tyrants win; we oppose them. We don’t merely watch global events unfold; we shape them. That’s what it means to be the … indispensable nation. That’s what it means to be the world’s superpower.” 

Such statements leave little room for China.

Andy Langenkamp is a senior strategic analyst at ECR Research & ICC Consultants.