The Middle East is roiling — the death of Iran’s president could push it over the edge 

A helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi went down on Sunday along the province of Western Azerbaijan, in a mountainous region in the northwest of Iran. Raisi had made a trip that day to inaugurate a dam on the Aras River. Traveling with the president were Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province and other officials and bodyguards. None of the passengers survived the crash. 

Although in Iran, the president does not have as much power as the supreme leader, Raisi’s death comes at a sensitive time in Iran’s domestic situation and the Middle East region overall. Everyone is on edge right now in Rafah; Iranian proxies in Lebanon are engaged in border skirmishes with Israel in the north; and Houthi rebels are still attacking ships in the Mediterranean. 

The world does not need more disquiet right now — it would be a mistake not to take this moment in Iran seriously. 

Senior American and Iranian officials reportedly held talks through intermediaries in Oman last week to discuss the ongoing conflict and how Iran might rein in its proxies. Since the taking of American hostages in 1979, Iran has had no formal relations with the U.S., but talks often take place in third-party countries. 

Also under discussion in Oman was Iran’s nuclear situation. The world is rightly worried that Iran has the technical ability to develop nuclear weapons, but whether the leadership has decided to build the bomb is still unclear. The International Atomic Energy Agency has been attempting to get clarity, but getting access to Iran’s nuclear facilities is often an obstacle, leaving experts to guess. 

With a presidential election coming in the United States, how America deals with Iran is important. President Trump decided to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, and since then Iran’s nuclear program has advanced, largely in secret. How Iran proceeds is a vital question. We need to find a way back to diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear future. 

Raisi was considered a possible successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader. Iranian law stipulates that if the president dies, power is transferred to the first vice president and an election must be called within six months. The first vice president is Mohammad Mokhber, a conservative politician who has been blamed in the past for Iran’s economic woes. 

Mokhber will likely be as conservative as Raisi, if not more. President Raisi was an obstacle to legitimate protest in Iran, using crackdowns on dissent as a major tool to control women and girls. 

Protests have been growing over the rights of women to shed their headscarves. 

The regime has grown more forceful against citizens — arresting and detaining celebrities, sports figures and ordinary people, and imposing stiff penalties for speaking out. More executions are taking place in Iran than in earlier periods; Iran hanged at least seven people Saturday, including two women.   

What comes next in this country of almost 90 million could impact everything from war in the Middle East to the price of oil. Iran has been supplying drones and arms to Russia for use in its war with Ukraine. Much of what America wants to achieve in the world is threatened today by Iran’s behavior. 

Raisi’s death may not be monumental; but we ignore it at our peril. 

Tara D. Sonenshine is former U.S. undersecretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs and is currently a senior fellow at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.