Georgia is on the verge of turning back to Russia  

Authoritarianism may be in Georgia’s political future, and that is a scary thought.  

This reality became ever clearer during a recent speech by polarizing Georgian politician Bidzina Ivanishvili, in which he endorsed conspiracy theories about the “global party of war” that he says is subduing Georgia’s identity and backed the kind of anti-Western policies that would bring the country closer to the Kremlin. 

Ivanishvili’s attempt to introduce a “foreign agent law” has been met with weeks of huge public protests and people chanting, “Yes to Europe! No to Russian law!” Indeed, the “Russification” of Georgia would be a big moral blow to democratic forces, both locally and in the West — as well as a great victory for Vladimir Putin’s regime. 

In his late April speech, Ivanishvili blamed all of Georgia’s troubles during its 34 years of independence on the West and, along with high-ranking officials from his Georgian Dream party, repeated the Kremlin’s most odious narratives, accusing the “Global War Party” of trying to “brazenly interfere in Georgia’s affairs.”  

At the beginning of May, U.S. Ambassador to Georgia Robin L. Dunnigan stated that she was “deeply concerned” that Georgian officials had been invited to Washington, D.C., for high-ranking consultations but refused. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, Georgian Parliament President Shalva Papuashvili and staff from the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs replied that the U.S. had asked them to temporarily suspend parliamentary hearings over the “foreign agent law,” which they understood as an ultimatum incompatible with the spirit of friendly relations between the countries. 

Georgia had been considered one of the most pro-Western countries among the former Soviet republics until 2020, and the Georgian Dream party promised that year to submit Georgia’s application for European Union membership by 2024.  

But in February 2022, the war in Ukraine erupted.  

Slowly but surely, the foreign political orientation of the Georgian Dream party started shifting noticeably toward the Kremlin. Ivanishvili’s speech ended any ambiguity about this, revealing that Georgia, under the Georgian Dream government, will only take steps backward from European Union integration. 

Georgia seems to be repeating what Armenia previously did and is now trying to undo. After Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan visited Putin in Moscow in 2013, he announced that Armenia would join the Moscow-ruled Eurasian Union and was no longer seeking to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union. Apparently, Putin was quite convincing for Sargsyan; while we don’t know what message Ivanishvili received from Russia — or in what form he received it — these two U-turns look strikingly similar. 

Despite its small size, Georgia is a critical country on the Eurasia continent due, in part, to its geography and position as a key player in the Caucasus “middle corridor” between Central Europe and Central Asia. In addition, a large part of the Georgia population is strongly pro-Western and pro-European Union, which is evinced not only in opinion polls but in the powerful anti-government protests that are taking place in Georgia’s capital. By swaying public opinion and encouraging distrust toward the West, the current Georgian authorities and their proxies continue to portray the European Union as hypocritical. 

The Russian regime’s representatives are already welcoming Georgia’s “pragmatism [and] sovereignization.” Completing Georgia’s transition to the Russian orbit will undoubtedly lower the morale of pro-Western forces in Ukraine, Moldova and Armenia. If this transition happens, Moscow will restore full control over the middle corridor that connects Europe with Central Asia and China. And the West will effectively throw away the billions of dollars it has spent since the late 1990s on developing the corridor. 

Georgia’s governments were often open during their early years but, over time, they have revealed authoritarian tendencies. Even though authoritarianism has often encroached on domestic politics before in Georgia, this is the first time it is accompanied by a change in the country’s foreign policy orientation.  

Harmonizing external and internal pressure is necessary to keep Georgia on the democratic path. The European Union and the United States should send strong messages to Georgian authorities to act differently, and work with state bureaucrats in Georgia who are ready to act according to their professional ethics. 

Finally, looking to the next government, it is already time to start thinking more seriously about how to ensure checks and balances – measures that would constrain any new government in Georgia from ever returning to authoritarianism.  

Davit Aprasidze, Ph.D., is a professor of political science at Ilia State University in Tbilisi, Georgia.  

David S. Siroky, Ph.D., is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at the University of Florida.